Draws and Fades: Assessing odds of Monday playoff at THE PLAYERS
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Rory McIlroy interview after Round 4 at THE PLAYERS
Written by Will Gray
PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. – After four days and 72 holes of play, there’s still work to be done at THE PLAYERS Championship.
Rory McIlroy let a few putts slip away down the stretch, while J.J. Spaun’s tournament-winning birdie putt on the final green came up inches short. As a result, the two combatants will return to TPC Sawgrass' Stadium Course at 9 a.m. ET on Monday for a three-hole aggregate playoff, having finished tied atop the final leaderboard at 12 under 276, two shots ahead of Lucas Glover, Tom Hoge and Akshay Bhatia.
The final round was delayed by four hours because of inclement weather, pushing the conclusion of regulation play toward sunset. Now the 51st edition of THE PLAYERS will be known for the first Monday finish since 2022 – and the first playoff since Rickie Fowler defeated Kevin Kisner and Sergio Garcia in 2015.
Updated odds to win THE PLAYERS (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
- -165: Rory McIlroy
- +130: J.J. Spaun
McIlroy held a one-shot lead when play was suspended at 1:15 p.m. ET, with the Ulsterman in the 12th fairway. He quickly pushed that to a three-shot cushion after a birdie on No. 12 combined with a Spaun bogey one hole behind, but that lead was short-lived. He bogeyed No. 14, while Spaun birdied Nos. 14 and 16 to draw even.
With a 144-man field now down to two, here’s a look at the case for – and against – each of the playoff participants, with oddsmakers giving McIlroy a clear edge in overtime.
Rory McIlroy (-165)
Why he’ll win: He’s done this before. McIlroy conquered the Stadium Course back in 2019, and he's got within reach of a second PLAYERS title. Having a night to shake off the hiccups down the stretch, he’ll be able to reset and establish himself as the best player still standing. That pursuit begins by hitting the 16th fairway, one that he missed down the right-hand side in regulation.
“You’ve got to make five good swings,” McIlroy said. “That’s all it is.”
McIlroy admitted to struggling while reading the greens in the fading daylight, including a 6-foot miss for birdie on No. 15. That won’t be an issue when play resumes, and a fresh approach will allow him to refocus after erasing a four-shot deficit in the final round. He also, has a slight edge on the relevant holes, having played Nos. 16-18 in 3 under for the week vs. 2 under for Spaun.

Rory McIlroy curls in birdie putt at THE PLAYERS
Why he won’t: There’s no getting around the fact that McIlroy’s closing stretch was shaky, evoking memories of last year’s U.S. Open. McIlroy missed a pair of drives to the right on Nos. 14 and 16, and he backed off each of his final three full-swing shots. Even the 3-footer to close out his par on the 72nd green wasn’t a sure thing.
McIlroy benefits from being the alpha here: the better player, the more accomplished veteran, the guy who has already won this year. But with it comes some added pressure, a burden he struggled with mightily at Pinehurst and one that seemed to affect him over the final five holes today. Should Spaun grab the upper hand on the par-5 16th, McIlroy could find things spinning once again.
J.J. Spaun (+130)
Why he’ll win: For all of the reasons above, Spaun has nothing to lose. He’s overachieved this week, and now it’s essentially a free roll for the title. Spaun steeled his nerve to erase the three-shot deficit over his final five holes and now can embrace the underdog role.
“I like having the opportunity to play,” Spaun said. “I like having the chance to win, and I like being in the spotlight now. I proved it to myself, coming down the stretch, playing those holes, that tomorrow it could go my way.”
The other edge for Spaun is the par-5 16th, which he played in 3 under against McIlroy’s 1-under total. The Ulsterman had trouble with the tee shot Sunday, and if Spaun is able to put another birdie on the board out of the gates, he’ll be able to apply some pressure and potentially flip the script heading to the island green.

J.J. Spaun narrowly misses birdie putt, pars to force playoff at THE PLAYERS
Why he won’t: This was his chance. Spaun benefited greatly from the early start Sunday, shaving off several hours that he didn’t have to deal with the burden of the 54-hole lead. He acquitted himself well from the lead, overcoming a rough start by making birdies on three of his final 10 holes. But he clearly felt the pressure out of the gates, and it’ll be hard not to think about what might have happened if his 31-foot birdie putt on No. 18 rolled another 3 inches – echoes of Kisner’s near-miss on the final green in 2015 which led to a playoff loss.
Now Spaun will need to face McIlroy toe-to-toe, a factor that wasn’t involved in regulation given he was playing from one group behind while equipped with the knowledge of what he needed to do. One more night to ponder the breakthrough that lies within grasp, a few more hours to think about a win that would redefine his career, and now with McIlroy standing in his tracks. There’s a reason that he’s the underdog.