PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. – We’ve reached the halfway point of THE PLAYERS Championship, with multiple players already reaching double digits under par and the course record taking on a challenge Friday afternoon.

From here on out, it might be an entirely different tournament – all thanks to Mother Nature.

Players were greeted with conventional conditions through the first two rounds at TPC Sawgrass, with intermittent winds amid sunny skies. That is expected to change in a big way this weekend, with stiff breezes in store for the third round and a mix of wind and rain in the forecast for Sunday.

Updated odds to win THE PLAYERS (via FanDuel Sportsbook):

• +360: Rory McIlroy
• +400: Collin Morikawa
• +600: Akshay Bhatia
• +700: Min Woo Lee
• +1000: J.J. Spaun
• +1200: Scottie Scheffler
• +1800: Sepp Straka, Alex Smalley
• +2000: Tommy Fleetwood

“Winds will start out light on Saturday morning and increase throughout the day,” read the PGA TOUR’s official weather forecast, which was updated Friday. “The strongest winds are forecast between 4-7 p.m. Saturday, with gusts over 30 mph at times.”

The winds are significant enough that tournament co-leader Min Woo Lee shared after his second round that TOUR officials texted players to alert them that course conditions may be adjusted for the incoming conditions. It’s a sign that things are almost certain to get a bit more interesting from here on out, especially during the window where the leaders will play a bulk of their third round.

“The wind we’re expecting to project the next two days is going to be one helluva challenge,” said Billy Horschel. “It’s one of those days of acceptance and understanding that you’re going to hit some good shots that turn out well, and some bad shots that turn out in some really bad spots.”

Looking at things through a betting lens, there are certain traits we can lean on knowing the conditions are going to increase in difficulty. McIlroy has a deserved spot as the betting favorite, followed by a tee-to-green specialist in Morikawa who is looking to recover from last week’s near-miss at Bay Hill. Those that have weaknesses off the tee or on approach could see those issues magnified in the crucible of Saturday’s challenge.

Below are the traits I’m looking for in my in-play selections, as the weather forecast takes on increased importance for fans and bettors alike:

Ball-striking

The biggest factor, given the blustery forecast, will be tee-to-green proficiency. TPC Sawgrass is a ball-striker’s venue, with four of the five winners since the move back to March in 2019 pacing the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green for the week. But that correlation increases significantly when the winds get blowing.

“It will be very challenging,” said two-time defending champ Scottie Scheffler, who sits six shots back. “You’ve got to get the ball airborne, and so you’ve got to make sure you’re controlling your spin and hitting it really solid.”

Spin control is going to play a big part, but so too will trajectory. Rory McIlroy sits just two shots back, and he pointed out that a key aspect will be how often players can keep their shots below the tree lines that guard many of the fairways and greens.

“It’s going to be really important to try to flight your ball,” McIlroy said. “I think once it gets above the tree line here, it can start to really get hit by (the wind)."

So with that in mind, who are players that merit extra attention? Will Zalatoris (+1800) leads the field in SG: Approach through two rounds and quietly shot a second-round 66. The Texan has plenty of experience playing in the wind and, while he only has one TOUR win to his credit, has flashed plenty of game on big stages.

Chase pack

The tee sheet will not be kind to the leaders, with the last group slotted for the 2:30 p.m. ET range, while the worst of the winds whip through from 4-7 p.m. As a result, don’t be afraid to look a bit further down the board for a player who could get off to a strong start in relatively mild conditions and then post a number before the leaders face the worst of it.

Among those candidates – why not ride the hot hand? Justin Thomas (+7500) has won here before and has had a few cracks at following up a low round on TOUR. Thomas has more momentum than anyone in the field and is relishing a new opportunity with a weekend tee time.

“I love playing in those conditions,” Thomas said. “I just think you’ve got to be creative, and it’s just tough. … You can make a double so fast out here if you get it out of position or just don’t hit the ball where you should. When the wind comes out, it just amplifies it.”

Let’s put it this way: you can have Scheffler at +1100 at 5 under, or you can drop one shot back and grab Thomas at +7500. I know which way I’m leaning.

Mindset

Like Thomas outlined, you have to target the guys that will relish the challenge. Some players can be more out of sorts, both on a bigger weekend stage and with the weather amping up the difficulty – I have questions, for instance, about Jake Knapp (+5500) who sits 130th in SG: Off-the-Tee but leads the field in SG: Putting after a 24-putt performance on Friday. That likely can’t last.

But when the conditions deteriorate, look for the mudders. One that caught my eye is Tommy Fleetwood (+1800) who is priced alongside Zalatoris but sits four shots off the lead at 7 under. Fleetwood memorably played in the final pairing at The Open in 2019, when he tried to keep pace with Shane Lowry in the wind and rain, and his ball-striking is among the best on TOUR when he’s firing on all cylinders. Fleetwood is ninth in SG: Approach and positive in all four major Strokes Gained categories, so there’s a lot to like in addition to the mentality he’ll bring to a difficult day as he chases his first TOUR win.

“It makes controlling your golf ball off the tee even more important than it normally is,” Fleetwood said. “Whatever the challenge is, just looking forward to it.”

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.