PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. – After a blustery day that lived up to the forecast at TPC Sawgrass, the crowd of contenders has thinned at the 51st PLAYERS Championship.

A total of 15 players will tee off Sunday within six shots of the lead, as inclement weather on the horizon led tournament officials to move up tee times to Sunday morning. The final group, headlined by J.J. Spaun looking to turn a one-shot lead into the biggest win of his career, will get started at 10:01 a.m. ET.

Spaun sits one shot clear of local resident Bud Cauley, but it’s another two shots back to Lucas Glover and Alex Smalley at 9 under. TPC Sawgrass' Stadium Course was as unpredictable as expected, given the gusty winds that put double bogeys on nearly every scorecard among the leaders. That was no more evident than with the day’s final pairing, as overnight co-leaders Akshay Bhatia and Min Woo Lee combined to shoot 9 over to fall four and seven shots off the pace, respectively.

Updated odds to win THE PLAYERS (via FanDuel Sportsbook):

• +220: J.J. Spaun
• +500: Bud Cauley
• +650: Rory McIlroy
• +1000: Lucas Glover
• +1200: Alex Smalley
• +1600: Corey Conners, Akshay Bhatia
• +2000: Patrick Cantlay
• +2200: Sepp Straka
• +2800: Scottie Scheffler

While tournament organizers hope to finish before the storms roll into town, conditions are still expected to be brisk for the final round of the TOUR’s flagship event. As was the case Saturday, elite ball-striking will be at a premium, as the short game can only cover so many woes.

With that in mind, here’s how I’m assessing the top of the leaderboard – and sorting through which players might be able to come from the back of the pack and surprise:

Draws

Corey Conners +1600

Maybe we’re focused on the wrong Valero Texas Open champion. Conners, like Spaun, has conquered TPC San Antonio – in fact, the Canadian has done it twice – and he made the quintessential Moving Day ascent with a 6-under 66 that glided him past a lot of the leaderboard carnage. He leads the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee this week, and his sometimes uncooperative putter has more than held up its end of the bargain through 54 holes.

Conners enters with some momentum off a third-place showing at Bay Hill, and what I like most is his final-round acumen at the Stadium Course. In four final-round starts, all since the move to March in 2019, Conners’ scoring average is 69.5 – by far his best total of any single day. He is familiar with the challenges the layout will present, and I like this price for an accomplished veteran who’s still within striking distance of a leader who will surely be feeling the heat.

Sepp Straka +2200

If you want someone from the Scheffler zone – given he won from five shots back in the final round last year – the Austrian may be the pick of the litter, and not just because my colleague Rob Bolton put Straka ahead of Scottie Scheffler in this week’s Power Rankings. Straka has been under par in all three rounds this week, one of only 10 players to accomplish that feat, and he’s doing so even though his ball-striking has been a tick under his season-long mark.

Few are playing with more confidence these days than Straka, given he has a win among six top-15 finishes already this season, so he may be equipped to handle some of the inevitable rogue bounces that are sure to pop up in crunch time. Straka’s iron play has guided him throughout this season, and it held steady in the wind on Saturday. He’s in an intriguing spot to make a big charge at a big price, just as Scheffler did a year ago.

Fades

J.J. Spaun +220

Honestly the one factor that might help Spaun the most is the shift in tee times. It means less focus on a fitful night of sleep, less time to zero in on the challenge that awaits and how close he now sits to a watershed win. But this is still a course – and an event – where it’s hard to finish the race from the pole position.

Spaun was a runner-up a couple of weeks ago at PGA National, but his record in this event is abysmal: four missed cuts and a W/D in six starts, with his only weekend appearance ending with a T67 last year. His stat line is remarkably consistent, top 20 in all four major categories, but that means he’s out over his skis a bit given he ranks 86th off the tee and 103rd on the greens this season. Spaun said all the right things in his post-round press conference, but he’ll surely be feeling the heat on Sunday.

Rory McIlroy +650

This is a fade of the price, not the player. McIlroy seemed to be holding on for dear life in the middle of his round, as the putter ultimately did him in en route to a 1-over 73 that dropped him four shots behind Spaun. The Ulsterman can surely make up that gap, but as the biggest name (and only former champion) among the top 10, oddsmakers seem to be shading his number a bit here knowing that he’ll receive ample public support.

McIlroy will be in chase mode from the jump, but a lot of his fate may be dictated by that putter that sunk him to 56th in SG: Putting in Round 3. If he’s able to rebound, akin to what Justin Thomas did on Friday, there’s hope for a comeback. Still, it’s one that likely should be priced north of +1000 given the circumstances.

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