Draws and Fades: Watch out for Ludvig Åberg (and his driver) at THE PLAYERS Championship
3 Min Read
Written by Will Gray
PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. – There’s a trio of co-leaders after one day of THE PLAYERS Championship, but the big names are lurking just below the surface.
Scottie Scheffler is still your betting favorite at TPC Sawgrass, having shot a 3-under 69 that left him three shots off the overnight pace set by Lucas Glover, J.J. Spaun and Camilo Villegas. Just behind him (and the leaders) sits Rory McIlroy, who performed some magic by turning a 4-of-14 fairway performance into a 5-under 67 that was capped by an incredible birdie from the pine straw right of the 18th hole.
Rory McIlroy's approach from pine straw leads to birdie at THE PLAYERS
Updated odds to win THE PLAYERS (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
- +400: Scottie Scheffler
- +450: Rory McIlroy
- +1800: Collin Morikawa, J.J. Spaun
- +2000: Lucas Glover
- +2500: Akshay Bhatia, Min Woo Lee
- +2800: Patrick Cantlay
- +3300: Ludvig Åberg, Aaron Rai
- +3500: Billy Horschel
The expectation of an early-late bias, a wave which has produced 14 of the last 17 PLAYERS champions, did not pan out as the morning players were buffeted by gusty winds that largely laid down in the afternoon. It created an opportunity for the likes of Scheffler and McIlroy, who played together in a marquee group alongside Xander Schauffele (even).
With a handful of players set to complete their opening round in the morning, here’s where my eye is trained for in-play value:
Draws
Ludvig Åberg +3300
I was high on the Swede to begin the week, as he is a local resident who has more local knowledge of the Stadium Course than most regular TOUR venues he faces. Åberg sits five shots back after a seemingly pedestrian 1-under 71, but he actually led the field in SG: Off-the-Tee in the opening round. Åberg was undone by double bogeys on Nos. 13 and 18, but he closed with birdies on two of his final three holes and, in general, there was a lot to like. This is an appetizing price for a top-tier talent who could easily drive his way to a score in the mid-60s Friday.
Ludvig Åberg drains 44-footer for birdie at THE PLAYERS
Aaron Rai +3300
Similar storyline, opposite stat line. While Åberg paced the field off the tee, Rai got red-hot with his putter and led the field in SG: Putting. The Englishman was on the shortlist for many bettors entering the week, as his outright price kept shortening into the +7000 range. Now he’s about half that price but well positioned on the leaderboard, T9 at 4-under. He spiked for many because of his solid ball-striking, so a cooperative putter is simply a bonus. If that end of the bag holds up, expect last year’s Wyndham Championship winner to remain in the mix well into the weekend.
Aaron Rai sinks 22-footer for birdie at THE PLAYERS
Fade
Rory McIlroy +450
I just can’t do it. McIlroy was playing with magic beans on the back nine, conjuring four inward birdies out of wild positions off the tee. It’s not a pattern that can stand up for four rounds, even for a player of McIlroy’s caliber.
He’ll have ample opportunity in the morning, as he and Scheffler seem to have ended up on the correct side of the draw. But double bogey lurks around every corner at TPC Sawgrass, and my concern is that when (not if) McIlroy’s wayward misses start to cost him, they’ll cost him in a big way.
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