Draws and Fades: Mac Attack hits Hamilton as Mackenzie Hughes, Robert MacIntyre sit well poised at RBC Canadian Open

Mackenzie Hughes and Robert MacIntyre provided a great one-two punch in the morning wave of Friday’s second round and Ryan Fox stormed home late to set up a fascinating weekend at the RBC Canadian Open.

Hughes raised Canadian hopes for a second straight national champion from the host nation, rebounding from his ho-hum opening 69 with a 6-under 66. It moved Hughes to 7-under, a score a little harder to swallow given he was 9-under before two late bogeys.

It left the top local hope three behind Scotland’s MacIntyre and New Zealand’s Fox.

MacIntyre added a 4-under 66 to his opening 64 to move to 10-under par through 36 holes, bogey-free and looking great. The Scotsman moved from +8000 pre-tournament to +1200 overnight and now sits +333 as your co-leader.

Fox – a good friend of MacIntyre’s – moved himself to 10-under with a 64. Crowd pleaser Joel Dahmen’s 65 left him in third at 8-under.

Last night's draw’ Andrew Novak (67) joined Hughes at 7-under as did overnight leader David Skinns after a tough 71 followed his Thursday 62.

My third draw option from last night, Sam Burns, had a rollercoaster afternoon but with three bogeys and a double bogey against just four birdies, he ultimately went backward and is now four shots back.

Pre-tournament favorite Rory McIlroy had a tough afternoon with a 2-over 72 dropping him into a tie for 30th at 2-under. McIlroy was the last champion at Hamilton in 2019, shooting a Sunday 61 no less. Can he be counted out?

Several players touted pre-tournament missed the cut including Cameron Young, Sahith Theegala, Adam Hadwin, Alex Noren and defending champion Nick Taylor.

Here are the latest outright odds via BetMGM Sportsbook.

• +333: Robert MacIntyre (-10, T1)
• +350: Ryan Fox (-10, T1)
• +750: Mackenzie Hughes (-7, T4)
• +900: Sam Burns (-6, T7)
• +1600: Joel Dahmen (-8, 3rd)
• +1800: Rory McIlroy (-2, T30)
• +1800: Andrew Novak (-7, T4)
• +2800: Corey Conners (-4, T13)
• +2800: David Skinns (-7, T4)
• +3500: Tommy Fleetwood (-3, T21)

At this point I really like the two players at the top to close this out but with them sitting at short odds with 36 to go I don’t think it’s the time to jump on.

Fox is a four-time DP World Tour winner, including the 2023 BMW PGA Championship. MacIntyre is a two-time DP World Tour winner and was part of last year’s winning European Ryder Cup team.

Hold back on these two guys for 18 holes and decide what to do with a round to play. Your odds may be slightly worse, but the risk much lower.

Instead, let’s look for some potential “value” in the market from here.

Don’t forget to look at Canadian players to sneak up the leaderboard in the Place Markets and round head-to-heads. They will play to the death!

DRAWS

Sam Burns +900

I hope you ignored my drawing Burns at +400 last night and instead can consider him now at +900! It was a rough day for Burns on Friday but believe it or not I took some positives away from his 1-over 71.

Starting with a double bogey could’ve spelled the death of his chances but Burns battled against himself and refused to give up. On Friday he ranked 135th in SG: Putting, usually his strength, and I expect he will return closer to the sixth he ranked in the metric in round one going forward.

He’s third in SG: Tee-to-Green through two rounds, and fifth on Approach. With improvement to come on the greens he becomes a dangerous prospect. Still leads the field in eagles, sand saves and Par-5 Scoring.

Andrew Novak +1800

“Ranked first in the field so far in SG: Off-the-Tee and eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green Novak could surprise with a surge in the second round.” – This is from last night’s column and it seems even a blind squirrel can find a nut once in a while. I finally got one right…

Novak now ranks second in SG: Off-the-Tee and sixth SG: Tee-to-Green. He’s inside the top 36 of all Strokes Gained metrics.

Has he learned from his three top 10s in a row earlier this season? Can he push his way closer to the top on Saturday? There was great value at +4000 last night, and still a little value at +1800 tonight.

FADE

Rory McIlroy +1800

This one could obviously bite me on the backside but since I faded him pre-tournament I might as well go all-in on the take. It is true McIlroy shot 61 on Sunday to win this event at Hamilton in 2019 but after Friday’s 72 I am not sure peak Rory will return this weekend.

With the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, the U.S. Open, and the Travelers Championship all coming in the next three weeks McIlroy might look to conserve energy from this point on.

The expectation is he will play aggressively, without using too much mental energy. Expect Rory to take on every shot on Saturday, which means he could shoot 64… but could easily shoot 74 as well.

Joel Dahmen +1800

Honestly… this is a slightly scary fade for me given he has clearly figured out the Hamilton greens so far. Dahmen has made over 250 feet of putts through two rounds to rank fourth in SG: Putting. So he does represent a bit of a lottery pick at these odds.

But Dahmen has a complete lack of form this season. He has ZERO top-10s this season and, in fact, his T11 at THE PLAYERS is his only top-25!

If you are looking for a little bit of a lottery pick, the Netflix star could actually be your ticket. Whether his psyche holds up from there is debatable though. I wish him well, but don’t expect much.