Draws and Fades: Oh dear Canada … Locals stall as big names lurk in Hamilton

If a Canadian is going to win their national open for the second year running it’s going to take a Nick Taylor-like fightback following a slow start from the locals at the RBC Canadian Open.

Only 49 of 156 players shot under par rounds at Hamilton Golf and Country Club, with David Skinns surging late to take the first-round lead with a sublime 8-under 62.

The Englishman was a standout performer on Thursday, as were Americans Sam Burns and Sean O’Hair who put up morning wave 7-under 63s.

Scotland’s Robert MacIntyre, who finished runner-up at his own national open last year, sits well poised at 6-under in fourth place while Ryan Palmer rode his short game and putter to a 5-under 65 to sit fifth.

Pre-tournament betting favorite Rory McIlroy sits in a tie for sixth at 4-under after overcoming a slow start. His four birdies coming in his last nine holes.

McIlroy is joined by New Zealand’s Ryan Fox, South African Erik van Rooyen and Americans Andrew Novak, Nick Hardy and Trace Crowe.

The best placed of the 28 Canadians was veteran David Hearn at 3-under, while International Presidents Cup captain, and PGA TOUR Champions member Mike Weir surprised many with a 2-under 68.

Corey Conners, Mackenzie Hughes and Taylor Pendrith, who all finished at 1-under par, will be trying to gain inspiration from Taylor’s efforts a year ago. Taylor shot a 3-over 73 to open a year ago, sitting 120th and eight shots back. He would rally to ultimately make a playoff, and then be the first local winner of the tournament in 69 years.

While McIlroy (+280) remains the betting favorite, it appears the oddsmakers are at least a little worried Conners and co. could rally. Conners is +4000 at this point, a long way from the +200000 Taylor sat after the opening round.

I won’t go as far as putting my pre-tournament pick to win in the draws column at 40-1, because I think you should be getting much better value. But I am still cautiously optimistic Conners can improve.

He sat 144th on the round in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, a stat he sits 21st on the season. With some opening round nerves in front of his home faithful out of the way perhaps he can get back on track off the tee and climb back towards the periphery of contention.

I’m also torn on McIlroy from here. I was an advocate to fade him pre-tournament at +400 so you’d think I’d say the same at +280 and four shots back. But the reality is he has good history at Hamilton. I’ll hold judgment for at least another round. If you are considering backing him, maybe wait until closer to his afternoon tee time for a little more juice. He will start on the front nine on Friday, the side of the course he torched on Thursday.

Here are the latest outright odds via BetMGM Sportsbook.

• +280: Rory McIlroy (-4, T6)
• +400: Sam Burns (-7, T2)
• +1200: Tommy Fleetwood (-3, T12)
• +1200: Robert MacIntyre (-6, 4th)
• +1600: David Skinns (-8, 1st)
• +2200: Aaron Rai (-3, T12)
• +2200: Erik van Rooyen (-4, T6)
• +3000: Ryan Fox (-4, T6)
• +4000: Corey Conners (-1, T34)
• +4000: Cameron Young (-1, T34)
• +4000: Sean O’Hair (-7, T2)
• +4000: Andrew Novak (-4, T6)

DRAWS

Sam Burns +400

I really hate drawing a player at such short odds with three rounds remaining, particularly as we won’t see him back on the course until Friday afternoon, but Burns looked like the player of old on Thursday. Inside the top six of SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Putting, plus a solid 20th in SG: Approach shows his entire game was in order. A recent new father, perhaps Burns is about to get his “baby bump” – the phenomenon of new parents finding true perspective and playing with a free mind before the rigors of the new ‘job’ take hold.

Try to wait for near his tee time before jumping in, as you might get some more value as morning wave players go low, and also get a look at the latest wind forecasts in case afternoon breezes pick up. Leads the field in GIR, total eagles (two!), Par 5 Scoring, and Back 9 Scoring among other things. Burns ranks 20th on TOUR in second-round scoring and sixth in third-round scoring… but we have to be wary of the fact he’s 129th in final-round scoring.

Andrew Novak +4000

Looking down the odds board for some value I stalled on Novak, a player who I gave some love to earlier this season before letting him slip off my radar. What’s exciting me after his first round is he seemingly has some putting touch this week, the piece of the puzzle he needs to really contend more often. Ranked first in the field so far in SG: Off-the-Tee and eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green Novak could surprise with a surge in the second round.

If not for the outright markets, perhaps he can match his three consecutive top-10s from earlier this season. He’s +275 for a Top-10 with DraftKings from this spot.

Robert MacIntyre +1200

My Golfbet colleague Will Gray is going to slap me for jinxing one of his pre-tournament picks but MacIntyre certainly intrigues me from this point on. He’s been on an uptick since becoming more accustomed to the U.S. style of life and has three top-13 results in his last four starts. Thursday’s bogey-free 64 was another great effort. Sitting in the top nine for SG: Around-the-Green (3rd), SG: Putting (8th), SG: Off-the-Tee (8th) and SG: Tee-to-Green (9th) is impressive to this point.

The counter point is his SG: Approach game ranked 102nd and sits 100th on the season. Can he maintain pace this week if his irons aren’t a little more dialed in? So far, he’s first in Scrambling, Sand Saves and Bogey Avoidance but how much pressure can that side of the game last. Now I feel like I’m talking myself into fading him!

FADES

Sean O’Hair +4000

While seeing a player just one off the lead still at juicy odds could appear very tempting, the fact is this round was a near miracle. O’Hair, a veteran in his 20th season, is a four-time TOUR winner but hasn’t won since the 2011 RBC Canadian Open. That’s not the main concern though. The fact he was the last man in the field and only arrived late Wednesday night, plus the fact he’s been battling mono the last month or so, has to point to a potential crash in energy during Friday’s second round. He found his way to the top by making over 125-feet of putts on Thursday… I can’t see that clip continuing.