Benny and The Bets: Side with Canadian contingent at RBC Canadian Open

O, Canada! Happy RBC Canadian Open week to all, but especially to all Canadian golfers and fans.

No one will ever forget Nick Taylor’s drought-busting victory a year ago, when he drained an incredible 72-foot eagle putt on the fourth playoff hole over Tommy Fleetwood to take the title and become the first Canadian in 69 years to win their home Open.

And while the putt – the longest of Taylor’s career – was the highlight moment, it is how he got there that really has me thinking ahead of this year’s event.

Taylor was 4-over through 15 holes in front of the Canadian faithful last year. He would end his opening day with a 3-over 73 and sit tied for 120th, eight shots back. He was 2000-to-1 on the odds board. Many players might pack it in at this point, head out Friday and go through the motions, start thinking about next week.

Not Taylor. This was his national open. He was never going to quit. And three days later, after rounds of 67-63 and a closing 66, he found himself in a playoff for it all.

“I heard someone shout out there, ‘everything,’ and I don't know any other word to use other than that,” Taylor said when describing what the win meant.

“I think it's a tournament that we've circled on our calendar since probably junior golf. But ever since I've been on the PGA TOUR this is one that we want to do as well as we can in, and the crowd support was the most unbelievable thing I will probably ever experience in my life. To kind of break that curse, if you want to call it is -- I'm pretty speechless.”

So how does that affect betting thoughts this week? Well… you can bank on the Canadians in the field being engaged all week long. And that makes them huge targets for me.

A big month of golf awaits all PGA TOUR players. From next week we have the Signature Event Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (not to mention Final Qualifying for the U.S. Open next Monday), straight into the U.S. Open and then straight into another Signature Event, the Travelers Championship.

With so much big-time golf coming it can be easy for some players to get ahead of themselves and others quite honestly could be pacing themselves.

Not the Canadians. This week is their Mount Everest.

“It might not be the most prestigious tournament on the PGA TOUR schedule but for every Canadian in the field it sits only a hair behind a major championship and a win here would define a career,” said Jon McCarthy, a golf writer for the Toronto Sun. “We are very proud that it’s the third oldest national open after the British and U.S.”

Adam Stanley, another highly regarded Canadian golf reporter from Sportsnet, doubled down.

“The RBC Canadian Open is the most meaningful event on the TOUR schedule for me as a Canadian because of the long-standing history and the elevated focus,” Stanley said. “For one week of the year the eyes of the golf world are on my country with plenty of the TOUR’s best heaping praise on my fellow countrymen and women.

“Nick Taylor’s win will go down in my own life as a generational, never-going-to-forget-it moment and it’s just such an exciting week to be a small part of.”

And the players themselves? Here are some snippets from before last year’s event.

Adam Hadwin: “Being Canadian means so much to me. I'm so proud to represent the Canadian flag everywhere we go internationally. To be able to come back on home soil and do it once a year is a lot of fun. We wish we could have more opportunities to do it, but this week is always a very special week for us.”

Corey Conners: “This is a really special event for me and the other Canadians. It's our national championship. Feels like a major to us. Me, particularly, I came here as a kid to watch the PGA TOUR pros play. Being able to play myself, it's really special. An event I always look forward to.”

You can’t tell me that the locals aren’t going to lift their games. And with the pressure of breaking the drought lifted, they are even more freed up.

So while two-time champion Rory McIlroy is the +400 betting favorite with BetMGM Sportsbook, I’m not advocating jumping on the Northern Irishman at all. I don’t think he will play poorly – in fact, he destroyed everyone in the field last time we played this event in Hamilton – but these odds, combined with the upcoming schedule, have me a little concerned.

Fleetwood at +1600 could certainly atone for his close call a year ago and Sahith Theegala, at +2000, is most certainly an outright option to consider having proven his worth on TOUR before. He is also stinging from his final round at Valhalla a few weeks back.

But I’m all-in on Canada this week, so let’s look at all the locals and where it could make sense to bet them.

First: Entertain any Canadian in a head-to-head battle against a non-Canadian. In our PGA TOUR Expert Picks I singled out Mackenzie Hughes at +100 over Keith Mitchell. But look at not just tournament matchups, but single-round matchups. Especially in the final round. If you can get a Canadian in a head-to-head over the weekend rounds, even if they’re well adrift of the leaders, be sure to know they’ll fight on every shot.

THE LOCALS

There are 28 Canadian players in the field and while some of them are very unlikely to win, others are right in it up to their eyeballs. There is also the added chase for Olympic and Presidents Cup berths. Here is some insight on them.

OUTRIGHT CONTENDERS

Corey Conners (+2200): This two-time PGA TOUR winner is my selection to win the tournament at +2200. Entertain the +450 Top 5, +225 Top 10 and +110 Top 20 markets and all head-to-head options against non-Canadian. Both McCarthy and Stanley also backed Conners as their outright pick.

“Corey Conners’ game looked closest at Valhalla and he has the ball-striking to get himself in contention every week, so he’s the best bet to win,” said McCarthy.

Added Stanley: “The moment isn’t too big for Conners now, and he’s the best ball-striker on the planet.”

Mackenzie Hughes (+4000): Born in Hamilton, Hughes is a true local this week and would be the feel-good story. I certainly think the two-time TOUR winner is an outright option, but have honed in on the +320 for a Top 10 and his head-to-head market against Mitchell. His SG: Putting (11th) remains his strength as is his SG: Around-the-Green (18th). Will need to lift his SG: Approach (145th) this week.

Adam Hadwin (+5000): I was happier with the Hadwin train before seeing he’s having issues with his golf clubs lost by the airlines. Assuming he gets them back soon, it should only be a minor inconvenience to his preparations and might even alleviate some internalized pressure. Hadwin has two Top 5s this season – at the Genesis Invitational and Valspar Championship. He’s +750 to make it a third this week – not out of possibility should his clubs arrive unscathed. The +188 for a Top 20 is good value in my book.

Taylor Pendrith (+5000): According to Stanley, Pendrith might just be the horse for this course given his recent uptick in form, including winning THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. With driving and ball-striking being imperative, and Pendrith’s speed returning after some earlier injury troubles, he can’t be discounted. A +375 Top 10 contender if ever I saw one.

Nick Taylor (+6000): The defending champion is at near insulting odds here. While I am aware his only top-10 since winning the WM Phoenix Open in February is at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans I just can’t help but think he will find something deep inside this week – much like he did a year ago. As a national hero, Taylor will not give up his title without a significant fight. I’d be all over the +225 for a Top 20.

Adam Svensson (+8000): As another Canadian PGA TOUR winner who came back from a poor start, Svensson remains a legitimate longshot in the outright markets that could surprise. Coming off seven straight made cuts, he did crack the top 40 last week with a T24 finish. He’s +110 to Top 40 this week.

THE OTHERS

From this point on the Canadian players become huge longshots to win.

Ben Silverman (+12500), Aaron Cockerill (+35000), Richard T. Lee (+35000) and Myles Creighton (+35000) probably don’t need to be on your outright cards, while the other Canadians in the field are all priced +40000 or higher at BetMGM.

But, again, if you find value in Make Cut or Top 40 options, they become considerations. All 21 of these players below Silverman are plus money for Top 40s, with Silverman priced at +130. His last two TOUR results were a T16 at the Myrtle Beach Classic and T32 last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and he shot a course-record 61 at Hamilton the last time we were here (T20).

Matthew Anderson (+40000) leads the Fortinet Cup after becoming the first Canadian player to win on PGA TOUR Americas, at the 2024 ECP Brazil Open on the Rio Olympic Golf Course. Anderson is +350 for a Top 40.

Mike Weir (+100000), the International Presidents Cup captain, comes off a T14 at the Senior PGA Championship last week. In his 31st appearance in this event, a +700 return for a Top 40 would be very popular – although unlikely.

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