Bolton: Finding the familiar during a stretch of new-look TOUR venues

The Swings, the Signature Events and the majors each present their own versions of seasons within the season. The PGA TOUR is engaged in another right now, but you’re unlikely to notice it and you’re not going to see any marketing and promotion for it. Yet, it still can challenge veterans like they’re rookies all over again.

I’m referring to the current six-week stretch that includes four tournaments contested on new or infrequently visited courses.

The PGA Championship (this year at Valhalla Golf Club) and the U.S. Open (at Pinehurst No. 2) anchor the annual cadence because both majors migrate. The Myrtle Beach Classic at The Dunes Golf & Beach Club was an inaugural event and this week’s RBC Canadian Open hasn’t been held at Hamilton Golf & Country Club since 2019. At last check, 35 golfers in this week’s field competed here five years ago.

Hamilton will appear similar in many spots but it’s also fresh after architect Martin Ebert’s restoration. Strictly bentgrass greens should roll purer than the bent-Poa annua blend allowed pre-project. Runoff areas introduced around greens will force rewrites in some notebooks about where not to miss. And so on.

Furthermore, on even relatively unfamiliar putting surfaces on which all golfers are educated in real time, ball-strikers tend to have a leg up because they’ll win that component of the tournament. However, the not-so-insignificant modification that Ebert ordered was a 20-percent increase in the targets. Now at a much more sizable 6,000 square feet on average, better putters who are average ball-strikers are treated more of a puncher’s chance to be in position to thrive. With recent course history at Hamilton, Ebert struck an ideal balance.

Verdict: The absence of a favorite skill set is noteworthy. Do not rule out any attractive considerations based on Hamilton’s occasional slot in the rotation.

Weather

Since Monday’s Power Rankings, the long-range forecast for the strongest winds on Sunday has been updated to reflect a reduced push from an easterly direction. However, Thursday’s opening round now features the possibility of an extension of moderate breezes from the north.

No bettor in their right mind would invest even in a coin flip based on wind forecasts, but we can prepare in advance for which side of the draw could benefit. One day out, the late-early draw is poised to have the edge, but not necessarily with impactful significance.

If you’ve ever wondered how these prognostications play out, look no further back than last week’s column in which I circled the early-lates at Colonial Country Club. As always, I track scoring and how the draw fared on my X. Note that last week’s early-late half averaged 1.08 strokes lower than its counterpart across the first two rounds and 38 of the 71 who made the cut emerged from it.

While I have a solid track record for this over the past 15 years, it’s not perfect and there’s always something to learn when connecting the results to the preview.

Power Rankings Wild Card

Sam Burns (+125 = Top 20) … No, that’s not awesome value because of who he is, but there’s still a kicker baked in for it. Consider that he’s among 20 on TOUR this season with as many as four top 10s but his set of four came consecutively in January and February. Since, he’s landed only one top 25 (T13, Wells Fargo Championship) and he’s missed three of his last five cuts.

The faith here is in his permanent class. He’s among the best in [insert skill here] and he still brings the heat slotting fourth in converting greens in regulation (T51) into par breakers. Given that he hit the ground running while still throttling back at Hamilton, it sets up as an ideal stage for him to find his game in earnest again.

Other Notables

Mackenzie Hughes (+160 = Top 20) … Always on the borderline for this attention but not this week. As the fifth-ranked Canadian in the world and first not in the Power Rankings, he belongs right here. Finished T14 at Hamilton in 2019, which doesn’t hurt, but that he arrives for the once-a-year chance to win his national championship with a pair of top 10s and a T14 in his five non-majors demands the reach, relative as it is.

Aaron Rai (+160 = Top 20) … He hasn’t been hiding from anyone for a while, so this kickback always is flatter than we’d like it to be, especially since he’s logged only three top 20s in 15 starts this season. But he’s the kind of repeatable performer who gives us confidence to keep throwing faith against the wall to see how much sticks. What’s more, when we’re faced with a classic track with trees that require tiptop course management, who better to latch onto than the Englishman who leads the PGA TOUR in fairways hit, ranks fifth in greens in regulation and sits seventh in proximity.

Nico Echavarria (+225 = Top 40) … Not necessarily a notable but this plus value for that finish jumps off the screen, so he needed to be singled out. Since missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open, he’s 6-for-13. That’s not wholly impressive until you appreciate that all six of those paydays are top 25s. He grades out wonderfully throughout his bag, so his weakness is as confounding as it’s obvious – inconsistency – but if he makes the cut, considering live-betting a top 20 when it falls.

Tap-ins

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• PARLAY: Akshay Bhatia, Adam Hadwin and Erik van Rooyen (+225 = All to Make the Cut)
• Daniel Berger (+275 = Top 20)
• Akshay Bhatia (+375 = Top 10)
• Corey Conners (+300 = Top Canadian)
• Myles Creighton (+350 = Top 40)
• Justin Lower (+150 = Top 40)
• Henrik Norlander (+225 = Top 40)

Notables WDs

• Davis Riley … With his unexpected rise to victory at the Charles Schwab Challenge on Sunday, he’s added exemptions into the last two Signature Events, so it’s not surprising for him to adjust his schedule.
• Chris Gotterup … Gets his first blow after a memorable six-week road trip that included his breakthrough victory at the Myrtle Beach Classic. It didn’t trigger automatic exemptions into the last two Signature Events, but he’s currently second in the Aon Swing 5.
• Alejandro Tosti … Just capped his six straight starts with a T17 at the Charles Schwab Challenge, the best of the stretch. He snuck into the field at the PGA Championship (T73) via his Official World Golf Ranking, so he’s essentially traded that work with this break.
• Jimmy Stanger … The rookie has missed eight of 14 cuts but a T3 at the Puerto Rico Open is one of three top 25s that have him buoyed at 116th in the FedExCup.
• Anders Albertson … First early withdrawal of the season. He returned to the PGA TOUR with a T63 at the Myrtle Beach Classic. Holds steady with 18 starts on his medical extension.

Membership Notes

Although he missed the cut at the NCAA Division 1 National Championship, Michael Thorbjornsen of Stanford emerged as the valedictorian of PGA TOUR University. Only Christo Lamprecht was within reach of the top spot at the finish line, but the Georgia Tech standout withdrew with an injured back.

Thorbjornsen had missed considerable time in 2023 due to a stress fracture in his back and surgery on his left ankle, but even through his recovery early this year, he piled on a terrific college career.

As a shiny, new professional, it’d be fair for Thorbjornsen to hope to experience merely a fraction of what the 2023 valedictorian, Ludvig Åberg, has achieved in such a short period of time. The 22-year-old from Wellesley, Massachusetts, will launch into the play-for-pay ranks at final qualifying for the U.S. Open next week. He then is eligible for a sponsor exemption for what essentially is a home game at the Travelers Championship that concludes the series of Signature Events on June 20-23, but he wouldn’t qualify on merit to climb into an open field until the Rocket Mortgage Classic on June 27-30.

In the long-term, Thorbjornsen is promised PGA TOUR membership through 2025. He’ll open in Category 30 of the Priority Rankings, and then he’ll be absorbed into the graduate reshuffle category at the conclusion of the Wyndham Championship. Of course, should he outpace Åberg en route to the winner’s circle on the PGA TOUR, Thorbjornsen will scale much higher in the pecking order immediately.

Now, unlike Åberg, Thorbjornsen wasn’t a foregone conclusion to finish No. 1, so long-term fantasy leaguers either hedged and held their breath or abstained to pick him up in formats allowing midseason drop-adds. He has eight career TOUR starts to his credit, the highlight a solo fourth at TPC River Highlands just two years ago, so the potential is self-evident. Just be patient as he continues to transition all the while continuing his physical recovery.

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.