May 29, 2024

Prop Farm: Underdog mentality could be fruitful at RBC Canadian Open

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2024 RBC Canadian Open Betting Preview: Should you back the Canadian players this week?
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      2024 RBC Canadian Open Betting Preview: Should you back the Canadian players this week?

      Written by Brady Kannon

      Often times in sports betting the best bets lie under the surface. The marquee players stand out but they don't always win. It is natural for the recreational bettor or fan to gravitate toward the stars and bet on them to perform. They want excitement and want to root for fireworks.

      As a general rule however, betting against human achievement can be profitable in the long haul - playing on the "Under" and the "NO" rather than expecting the "Over" and the "YES." I found myself digging for "diamonds in the rough" this week at the RBC Canadian Open with the field being heavy with longer shots and shorter on bigger stars.

      Of course, we have Rory McIlroy, a two-time RBC Canadian Open winner, as the prohibitive favorite to win this week. After that, there is Sahith Theegala, Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry and Sam Burns as some of the more recognizable names and shorter-priced stars - and then we drop pretty quickly on the odds board into players being priced at +4000 or higher. We know how this golf season began with many winners going off at huge prices, and that continued last week with Davis Riley, a +25000 choice at BetMGM Sportsbook to win the Charles Schwab Challenge.

      With just a handful of players to choose from at the top of the board, was there any sharp action interested in the favorites this week?

      "Not really. Actually, I think it is the opposite," said Hall of Fame Las Vegas bookmaker, Nick Bogdanovich. "People are looking for higher prices - and let's face it, lots of long bombs have come in recently."

      "We took some sharp action on Fleetwood," said veteran Las Vegas golf oddsmaker, Jeff Sherman. "Fleetwood and McIlroy represent our liabilities but the action on Rory is public."


      Tommy Fleetwood on support from Canadian fans
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          Tommy Fleetwood on support from Canadian fans


          When I asked Thomas Gable, Director of Race and Sports at The Borgata in New Jersey, he said, "Theegala, yes, and a little on Alex Noren too."

          Somewhat against my will, I played Theegala to win this week and also for a top-20 finish. Again, with the limited number of favorites, I figured Theegala would be popular and in trying to find an edge, I don't always want to be in the majority. But with how well he is going this season, I couldn't leave him off my card. I played Noren for an outright win and a top-20 finish as well. He too has been so good this season, with now eight top-25 finishes in a row.

          Bogdanovich did go on to point out however, that some of the stars are getting action in different markets. "We drew good action on the "YES" for Noren top-10 and Theegala "YES" top-10 finish."

          Similar to Sherman. "The sharp play on the bigger names has been more so in the head-to-head matchups."

          Gable is in line here with Sherman. "Rory is getting bet heavily in the outright market by recreational money but with sharp money in his tournament matchups."

          At BetMGM Sportsbooks, Senior Data Analyst, Drew O'Dell is seeing the bulk of the action in the outright market on the big names. "McIlroy leads in ticket count percentage (10%) and handle (24.3%). Theegala is second with 9.7% of the tickets and 14.5% of the handle. Lowry is third in ticket count (7.2%) but Burns is third in handle (7.2%)," said O'Dell.

          I mentioned trying to find some possibly less obvious or less popular plays in my own pursuits this week and while I did land on Noren and Theegala, my other four outright plays were deeper down the board. I played Aaron Rai, Mark Hubbard, Seamus Power, and Daniel Berger to win this week - all at +4000 or more - and also, each for a top-20 finish.

          Berger missed roughly 19 months of action on TOUR with injury issues in his back prior to January. He could be turning the corner however, as he has made the cut in five of his last six starts. Prior to his surgery, Berger was a top player in the world. At some point, one has to figure his elite game will show up again and I felt maybe this week was the time. Bogdanovich is with me on Hubbard personally, as are some of his customers. "Hubbard, Matt Wallace, and Robert McIntyre all drew good action from sharp players this week."

          The RBC Canadian Open is a highly regarded tournament. It is one of the longest running events on TOUR and of course, carries the prestige of a National Open for our friends north of the border. Nick Taylor was the first Canadian-born player to win the RBC Canadian Open in 69 years when he rolled in a 72-foot eagle putt on the fourth playoff hole to defeat Fleetwood at Oakdale Golf and Country Club last year. It was one of the more exciting and memorable moments of last year's entire golf season.

          I expect another thrilling tournament this season at Hamilton Golf and Country Club and off of last year's banger of a finish, the momentum is there for Canadian fans wanting to explode once again.

          And therein lies the dance of sports betting too. We want to root for another Canadian to win his National Open. We want the heroics. Here in the Prop Farm, you might say, we'd like to relish in a "bumper crop" but finding that exact fruit, vegetable, or grain that cashes the big ticket, may come from something unexpected or something less popular.

          Case in point, Gable noted sharp players at The Borgata playing against a popular Canadian countryman this week. "We've taken sharp action on Adam Scott to beat Corey Conners in a Tournament Matchup. Scott was +115 and is now -105."

          O'Dell notes that Burns represents 7.2% of the handle in the outright market at BetMGM. He also told me that Tom Kim is responsible for just 1.2% of the handle. Personally, I bet on Kim (-105) as an underdog to defeat Burns (-120) in a Tournament Matchup, going against what appears to be the more popular choice.

          We'll see. With Theegala, Noren, Rai, Hubbard, Power, Berger, and Kim over Burns in my pocket, it looks like I have sprinkled the garden with popular, less popular, and possibly even, obscure choices. However it is that the RBC Canadian Open unfolds, unexpectedly or not, we're investing in our choices to blossom.

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