Odds Outlook: Rory McIlroy returns to Hamilton as RBC Canadian Open betting favorite

Memorial Day weekend is the annual unofficial beginning of summer, but the PGA TOUR season is well past the halfway point.

The RBC Canadian Open, the second-longest serving non-major golf tournament in the world, returns to Hamilton Golf and Country Club, located south of Toronto.

Hosting for the seventh time in history and first since the 2019 edition, this week is one of the final chances to book a place in the upcoming U.S. Open at Pinehurst and to qualify for the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday and Travelers Championship, if not already qualified, through the Aon Next 10 and Aon Swing 5.

The top choice at BetMGM Sportsbook, Rory McIlroy (+375) returns to the track, affectionately known as Ancaster by the locals, as the clear-cut favorite. Playing the event for the first time in 2019 at Hamilton, the four-time major champion put on a show the week before the U.S. Open. McIlroy won by seven shots, blowing away the field with a closing-round, course-tying record 61 on Sunday to remove any doubt. Adding a successful title defense in 2022 at St. George’s, plus a T9 finish last year, suggests he relishes old-school designs near the shores of Lake Ontario. After recent victories at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and Wells Fargo Championship, a T12 at the PGA Championship at Valhalla is the only blemish on McIlroy’s record since late April.

Tommy Fleetwood (+1600) played villain to protagonist Nick Taylor (+6000) last year at Oakdale Golf & Country Club. The Englishman, who forced a playoff with a par on the final hole, looked on as the Canadian poured in a 72-foot putt for eagle to win in a playoff and become the first native son to win the national open since 1954 (Pat Fletcher). The Ryder Cup star has never finished outside the top 10 in two starts in Canada, and he'll look to make it three-for-three (on three different tracks). Looking for his first top-10 payday on TOUR since a T3 at the Masters, Fleetwood should be a quick study on the renovated 7,087-yard, par-70 layout.

Making his third consecutive start in Canada, Sahith Theegala (+2000) enters the week off T12 at the PGA Championship and looks to continue his excellent 12-month stretch. After not missing a cut since early January, the Californian sits fifth on TOUR in SG: Total and fourth in SG: Putting. Teeing it up at Hamilton for the first time, he will not have to translate the 2021 renovation by Martin Ebert and Tom Mackenzie of the 1915 Harry S. Colt classic like some that played in the 2019 edition.

Stamping his passport for the sixth consecutive event in Canada, Shane Lowry (+2200) has posted T12 or better three times in his previous five visits to the national open of Canada, including runner-up to McIlroy in 2019. Partnering with McIlroy to win the Zurich Classicin mid-April, the Irishman added to his top-10 haul with T6 at the PGA Championship two weeks ago. Lowry is in the top 20 in Total Driving, SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Approach, and his ball-striking makes him stand out on unfamiliar/new courses.

Alex Noren (+2500) arrives in Hamilton on a streak of eight consecutive paydays at T24 or better. The Swede, still looking for his first win on the PGA TOUR, has been playing great since the calendar turned to March. In his two previous events on Bentgrass, he recorded a season-best solo third at TPC Craig Ranch and T12 at Valhalla. Only three players on TOUR have gained more strokes this season than the 41-year-old. Sitting behind Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and McIlroy, the next step for Noren is to turn statistics into wins.

Another player looking for the elusive first win on TOUR, big-hitting Cameron Young (+2500), should be able to overpower this historic track. With just four par-4 holes extending over 450 yards, and both par 5s not eclipsing 580 yards, he should have plenty of chances with scoring clubs in his hand. The last time he was in the top 10 was T9 at the Masters, and he’s only posted three rounds in the 60s in his last 16 loops.

Carrying the shortest odds for the brigade of native Canadians, Corey Conners (+2500) will look to complete the Canadian exacta in back-to-back years with Taylor. To break through, the Listowel, Ontario, native will need to continue his streak of made cuts (14), but he'll need his first top-10 result since the 2023 BMW Championship last August. Only Scheffler is better on approach, and not many are better tee-to-green. After missing the cut in five of his first six attempts, he’s posted solo sixth in 2022 and T20 in 2023. With the 69-year drought broken last year, the pressure won’t be as intense to lift the trophy.

Proud new father Sam Burns (+2800) is the final player on the BetMGM boardshorter than +3000. A hot start to the season cooled with a subpar four-week run in Florida. Missing the cut at the Masters and cashing T44 at RBC Heritage, April did not offer many clues on turning a corner. After the baby arrived on April 22, the 2023 WGC-Match Play champion posted his best finish, T13 at Wells Fargo Championship, since February but missed the cut at Valhalla Golf Club. The 6,000 square-foot greens should give him a chance to get his putter, his best weapon, heated up.

Here's a look at some of the other notable odds via BetMGM, including Charles Schwab Challenge winner Davis Riley, who is +9000 to win in consecutive weeks (Note: Native Canadians marked in bold):

• +3300: Adam Scott
• +4000: Aaron Rai, Keith Mitchell, Mackenzie Hughes, Maverick McNealy, Taylor Pendrith, Tom Kim
• +5000: Adam Hadwin, Akshay Bhatia
• +5500: Davis Thompson, Erik van Rooyen
• +6000: Nick Taylor (defending champion)
• +6600: Ben Griffin, Matt Wallace, Seamus Power, Daniel Berger, Mark Hubbard
• +8000: Adam Svensson, Doug Ghim, Kevin Yu, Robert MacIntyre, Ryan Fox
• +9000: Davis Riley, Mac Meissner, Nicolai Højgaard, Ryo Hisatsune

How the RBC Canadian Open works:

• A field of 156 players, including 12 of the top 50 in the OWGR.
• After 36 holes, the field will be cut to the top 65 and ties.
• The purse of $9.4 million will see the winner take home $1.65 million plus 500 FedExCup points.
• Players not eligible for the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday can qualify this week through the Aon Next 10 and Aon Swing 5.

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