Draws & Fades: Don’t discount the chase pack at RBC Canadian Open

The RBC Canadian Open has been a wild tournament through the first three rounds. For the third week in a row, we came into a tournament at which rain had come down heavily leading up to the event.

Many players took advantage of the soft conditions early on at Hamilton Golf & Country Club, while at the same time, many players struggled mightily - making for an average score of right around even par through the first two days in Hamilton, Ontario.

On Moving Day, we saw the leaders essentially move down the board and the chasers move up. When the dust settled, Robert MacIntyre, who held a share of the 36-hole lead, retained that position after catching fire down the stretch.

He made three birdies in a row on holes 14-16 and then eagled the penultimate hole. MacIntyre goes into Sunday's final round at 14-under, leading Canadian Mackenzie Hughes, Ryan Fox, and Ben Griffin by four shots. He was +333 at BetMGM Sportsbook before teeing off on Saturday and is now at even money (+100) to win the RBC Canadian Open.

Right behind them, lurking at 9-under par, are Tommy Fleetwood, Sam Burns, Joel Dahmen and Trace Crowe. Victor Perez and Aaron Rai round out the top-10 on the leaderboard at 8-under.

Saturday was the best day for scoring that we have seen so far. Of the remaining 69 players in the field, only 20 shot rounds over par. If it weren't for MacIntyre's red-hot finish, we'd basically have 24 players within five shots of fewer of the lead. Going into Saturday's round, MacIntyre was 50th in this field for Strokes Gained: Approach and 27th for Greens in Regulation. He now ranks 62nd for SG: Approach and 40th for GIR. His putter has led the way. He was third in the field for SG: Putting going into Saturday and is now first in the field after shooting his second straight round of 66. Over the first three days in total, he's gained nearly 11 shots on the field with the putter.

So what does all this mean heading into Championship Sunday?

First of all, I mentioned that this tournament has been wild. Absolutely nothing may go according to plan or expectations and it could very well be a crazy finish. However, over the course of four days, the law of averages tends to manifest. We'll see.

Here are the latest outright odds via BetMGM Sportsbook.

• +100: Robert MacIntyre (14-under, leader)
• +700: Mackenzie Hughes (10-under, T2)
• +1000: Tommy Fleetwood (9-under, T5)
• +1100: Ryan Fox (10-under, T2)
• +1200: Sam Burns (9-under, T5)
• +1400: Ben Griffin (10-under, T2)
• +1800: Rory McIlroy (7-under, T11)
• +3300: Aaron Rai (8-under, T9)
• +3300: Joel Dahmen (9-under, T5)

Draws

Ryan Fox (+1100)

Fox was playing beautifully in all facets of the game heading into Saturday. It was almost too good and sure enough, he fell back with an even par round on moving day. But now I feel the bad round is behind him and he should feel more comfortable in the chaser's role as he seeks his first PGA TOUR victory. Going into Saturday, Fox was first in this field for SG: Approach and in Greens in Regulation. He was third for SG: Off the Tee, seventh in Putting, and 14th for Driving Accuracy. He fell off hard in nearly every category in Round 3. Without the pressure of the overnight lead, I believe he can go out on Sunday, play more freely, more aggressively, and get back to what got him here in the first place. I wouldn't be surprised by a final round 65, and that might be enough.

Aaron Rai (+3300)

If only Aaron Rai could putt. He ranks 127th on TOUR in SG: Putting and after gaining strokes on the field with the putter on Thursday, he has dropped shots with the flatstick on Friday and Saturday, now ranking 63rd out of 69 players. Meanwhile, he is second in SG: Off the Tee, fourth in SG: Approach, No. 1 in Driving Accuracy, and in GIR. If he gains on the field with the putter on Sunday, even in the least, he could post a 63 and be right there.

Fades

Robert MacIntyre (+100)

With a four-shot lead, the price is fair but I don't at all like the way he's gotten there. It looked as if things had finally caught up to the Scotsman on Saturday until he went nuts on four of the final five holes. Carrying this hot of a putter for three straight rounds is a danger sign for me. Putting is volatile. It rarely stays that good - or that bad - over the course of an entire golf tournament. With MacIntyre's approach play being so poor, I have a hard time believing that the putter will continue to bail him out. Let's not forget, the putts MacIntyre made in that four-hole stretch to close out his Saturday, were from 13, 10, 50 and 30 feet. That is practically unheard of. For the second straight day, I am going to bet on him not being able to sustain that and ultimately, I believe the winner's circle evades him in Hamilton.

Mackenzie Hughes (+700)

The case against Hughes is very similar to that of MacIntyre. The putter has been carrying him - and in this case, I don't think the price is fair either. He is the classiest player at the top of the board outside of Burns and Fleetwood, so that likely influences the price. And I also feel there is something in the fact that he is Canadian. The books have to know that he will be a very popular choice to make it two Canadian winners in a row at this event, after a 69-year drought. The price is lower than it ought to be as the books try to protect against an expected wave of support for the countryman. I mentioned the stats. Hughes is 38th in SG: Off the Tee, 34th in SG: Approach, 48th in Driving Accuracy, and 67th in GIR. He is fifth in SG: Putting. It would be thrilling to see another Canadian win their national Open but I can't make it make sense - or dollars.