It wasn’t the ideal start for the TOUR’s best at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort Thursday, as wind gusts exceeding 30 mph and brief showers challenged the afternoon wave of the opening round at the Valspar Championship.

Anyone holding tickets on Keith Mitchell or Stephan Jaeger hopes Thursday’s round signals a return to form, while those claiming they picked Jacob Bridgeman or Ricky Castillo might also insist they have a perfect March Madness bracket. Regardless, we play four-round tournaments here for a reason, and a stacked field like this one must navigate the ebbs and flows of a demanding Copperhead Course to gain momentum heading into the weekend.

Many marquee players teed off in the afternoon and battled tough conditions, leaving them far from the top of the leaderboard—aside from perhaps Sahith Theegala. With these players set to hit the course early Friday under more favorable conditions, now is an opportune moment to back some big names at discounted odds.

Let’s examine who has the potential to charm the Snake Pit over the next three days.

Draw

Justin Thomas (+5500)

Justin Thomas struggled in the opening round of THE PLAYERS Championship last week, carding a 78 due to erratic ball-striking both off the tee and on approach. Surprisingly, his usually inconsistent putter held up, but his tee-to-green game was the real issue.

Facing an early exit at a tournament he previously won, Thomas rebounded with a tournament record 11-birdie round of 62, breaking the birdie record and tying Tom Hoge’s course record at TPC Sawgrass.

After opening this week with a 73 at a course he calls one of his TOUR favorites, Thomas finds himself in a familiar position. Last week, he caught fire and played at a level reminiscent of his dominant 2017 season. Trending in the right direction, many believe his winning drought will end soon. At +5500 and just six shots back, now is the time to buy in.

Others to consider

• Tommy Fleetwood (+2500)
• Harry Hall (+3000)
• Corey Conners (+3300)

Fade

Keith Mitchell (+1000)

One of the TOUR’s sharpest dressers finds himself tied for the lead after Round 1, which may catch the attention of bettors who haven’t seen his name atop a leaderboard in a while, and for good reason.

Mitchell benefited from an early tee time Thursday, avoiding the worst of the wind and rain while posting a 67. His round was propelled by a +2.42 Strokes Gained: Putting performance, ranking seventh in the field, along with strong Approach and Off-the-Tee numbers.

He hit 15 of 18 greens and putted flawlessly on the Bermudagrass, but if he gets caught in tougher conditions, his greens-in-regulation stats could take a hit. Entering the week ranked 128th in putting, a regression wouldn’t be surprising.

Though a popular pick among TOUR fans, Mitchell hasn’t demonstrated the ability to close on a challenging course like Copperhead. With no top-20 finishes this season and a missed cut last week, he’ll need to find another gear to hold off this talented field.