Viktor Hovland remains the man to beat at the Valspar Championship, at least in the eyes of oddsmakers.

The Norwegian trailed by a shot entering the third round at Innisbrook Resort, but he still teed off with the shortest odds according to FanDuel Sportsbook. That status hasn’t changed now that Hovland shares the top spot with Nico Echavarria and overnight leader Jacob Bridgeman heading into the final round on the Copperhead Course.

It’s a relatively tight leaderboard, with 16 players separated by three shots to set up what could be a wild finale. No one benefited from Moving Day more than Justin Thomas, who went from the cut line to T5 and two shots off the lead after a 6-under 65 that marked the low round of the day.

Updated odds to win Valspar Championship (via FanDuel Sportsbook):

• +350: Viktor Hovland
• +500: Jacob Bridgeman
• +700: Nico Echavarria
• +800: Justin Thomas
• +1100: Shane Lowry
• +1400: Ricky Castillo
• +2000: Kevin Yu
• +2500: Corey Conners

Hovland is in search of his first PGA TOUR win since lifting the FedExCup at East Lake in August 2023, while Echavarria is looking for win No. 3 after topping a limited field in Japan just a few months ago. Bridgeman, one of only four players to make the cut in all four stops of the Florida Swing, seeks win No. 1.

Here’s how I would assess the field – and the odds – heading into the last trip around Innisbrook where low scores are sure to be at a premium:

Draws

Shane Lowry (+1100)

Thomas is sure to draw plenty of attention after his third-round flurry to move back into contention, but if last week at TPC Sawgrass is any indication, JT remains hot or cold with little in between. So I’m dropping a little further down the odds board to take another player tied for fifth at 5 under, Lowry, who is sure to create plenty of birdie opportunities on Sunday.

Lowry leads the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee this week, an important metric that will become even more critical as the pressure heats up down the stretch. The Irishman has played well at times already this season, notably a runner-up to Rory McIlroy at Pebble Beach, and Innisbrook is the type of layout that accentuates his strengths. Lowry is also 6 under for the week on the back nine, thanks in large part to a sizzling 29 on Friday, so he may have an edge across the Snake Pit.

Kevin Yu (+2000)

Ball-striking travels. Yu is picking up ground on the field across every major metric, but like Lowry, he’s doing the most damage off the tee. He’s buoyed by the fact that he knows how to win on TOUR, having done so in the fall at the Sanderson Farms Championship, and he can ask Sam Burns about how well The Country Club of Jackson correlates to Innisbrook. Yu has a pair of top-20 results this season and has quietly shot two straight rounds of 3-under 68.

He doesn’t have the name recognition of Thomas or Lowry, but as a result, these are some appetizing odds for a player with a recent win who will tee off just two shots off the lead on a course where a steady hand will likely be rewarded.

Fades

Jacob Bridgeman (+500)

How long can a hot putter last? Bridgeman leads the field on the greens, picking up more than nine shots against the field with just his putter through 54 holes. His short game bailed him out Saturday, notably with four birdies in a five-hole stretch from Nos. 10-14, but his approach play is concerning to me.

Bridgeman has lost ground to the field with his irons each of the first three rounds, and he’s T66 in SG: Approach out of 78 players to make the cut. Faced with proven winners in every direction, a difficult course that will require the best of his game and the pressure of trying to get his maiden win, I think the combination is too much to back him at this price.

Justin Thomas (+800)

Maybe I’m just a little scorned, having been trying to predict the Thomas drought-ending victory off and on for most of the year. But I feel like there were lessons to be learned last week at THE PLAYERS, where Thomas’ best was among the best in the field but he struggled to produce it consistently.

The turnaround clicked again Saturday in Palm Harbor, where Thomas was second in SG: Tee-to-Green after ranking 68th and 63rd in the same metric over the first two days. He’s certainly live to win, and those who backed him in the neighborhood of +10000 when he was teetering on the cut line have an entertaining sweat ahead of them. But Thomas is still facing a nearly three-year victory drought, the length of which gets more surprising by the week for a player of his caliber. He’s going to be among the hunted, not the hunting, as the second biggest target behind Hovland on the leaderboard.

If he plays like he did on Saturday, he wins this by three shots. My concern is that, when trying to bank on Thomas delivering that form this year, the results have been sporadic.

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