Draws and Fades: Case for and against three players left who can win ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP

Just three players remain as serious contenders for the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP at Narashino Country Club after the third round saw Nico Echavarria, Justin Thomas and Max Greyserman shoot out ahead of the pack.

While strange things can happen in golf, it’s going to take a near miracle for anyone else to make a run at the prize given the best-case scenario is starting six behind.

Echavarria produced a huge closing-hole eagle, much like Thomas the day before, to steal tournament favoritism with a round to play. Echavarria, a winner at the Puerto Rico Open last year, sits 17-under in Japan.

Thomas, who held the lead for a period on the back nine, settled at 15-under in second place while Greyserman will chase victory from 14-under

TOUR winners Rickie Fowler, Nate Lashley and Kevin Yu won’t be giving up from 11-under in a tie for fourth but it will take something pretty special to get it done.

The latest odds from BetMGM Sportsbook are as follows with our take on why the top three on the board can, and perhaps won’t, win the title.

• +125: Nico Echavarria (-17, first)
• +140: Justin Thomas (-15, second)
• +450: Max Greyserman (-14, third)
• +5000: Rickie Fowler (-11, T4)
• +5000: Kevin Yu (-11, T4)
• +6000: Kurt Kitayama (-10, seventh)
• +6600: Nate Lashley (-11, T4)
• +25000: Jhonattan Vegas (-9, T8)
• +30000: Eric Cole (-9, T8)

Nico Echavarria

Case for: Leads the tournament by two shots and leads the field in SG: Approach, Total Eagles, Birdie of Better conversion, Putts per Round, Par 3 Scoring, Front 9 Scoring, One-Putt Percentage and 3-Putt Avoidance among other things. Second in the field in Total Birdies, Par 4 Scoring and SG: Tee-to-Green. Also has won on TOUR before.

Case against: Echavarria has played a strategic game, laying back on distance and relying on accuracy. Will ranking T56 in the field in Driving Distance and 37th in SG: Off-the-Tee bite him in Round 4? He is also 65th in the field in Proximity from the sand and 30th in Sand Saves. While he’s won before, this time he faces a major winner in the final group.

Justin Thomas

Case For: This is a 15-time TOUR winner and two-time major winner. He knows how to close tournaments, including four in Asia. Ranks first in the field in Scrambling, Sand Saves, Par 4 Scoring, Back 9 Scoring, Bogey Avoidance, 3-putt Avoidance and SG: Tee-to-Green. Second on SG: Approach.

Case Against: Thomas is coming up on 2.5 years since his last win and that brings nerves no matter what you’ve achieved in this game. While he’s hitting it well, he ranks 73rd in the field for putts from 10-15 feet, a critical distance in final rounds. He’s also T58 from putting inside 5 feet and is T35 in the field in Par-3 Scoring – and there are five par-3s.

Max Greyserman

Case For: Seemingly poised to win soon after two runner-up results this season at the 3M Open and the Wyndham Championship. Leads field this week in Total Birdies, Par Breakers Percentage, Par 3 Birdie or Better, Longest Drives, SG: Putting, Putting from 3, 4, 5, 6 and 8 feet, putts made over 10 feet and putts made over 20 feet. Sits second in Front 9 Scoring and third in GIR.

Case Against: While he’s hit some long drives, he sits 69th in Total Driving and Driving Accuracy. Also back at T62 in Scrambling and 60th in SG: Around the Green. As the pressure rises, these errors are magnified. He’s also got to overtake a major winner and is yet to win on TOUR.

Verdict: For the last few days we’ve advocated for Thomas to win this, so we won’t back off him now.