Draws and Fades: Justin Thomas lurking as stars struggle in ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP opener

After only one round in Japan, the odds board has been turned upside down at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP.

Entering this week’s no-cut event at ACCORDIA NATIONAL Narashino Country Club, there were three clear favorites in the eyes of oddsmakers at BetMGM Sportsbook: two-time major champion Xander Schauffele along with Collin Morikawa and Hideki Matsuyama, who had won this tournament two of the last three years.

What did they do in the opening round? A combined score of 3-over, with Schauffele’s quadruple-bogey 8 on the ninth hole a particular lowlight as he struggled to a 73 that beat a total of six players in the 78-man field.

So with the top three on the board either well down the leaderboard or out of the mix entirely, where do things stand? Overnight leader Taylor Moore has a slight edge according to oddsmakers, with Justin Thomas three shots back and lurking as the biggest name in contention heading into the second round of the no-cut event.

Updated odds to win ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP (via BetMGM)

• +650: Taylor Moore
• +900: Eric Cole, Max Greyserman
• +1000: Justin Thomas
• +1400: Collin Morikawa
• +1600: Beau Hossler
• +2200: C.T. Pan, Jhonattan Vegas, Kevin Yu
• +2500: Nico Echavarria

Here’s a look at how I would assess the field with one round in the books in Japan:

Draws

Justin Thomas (+1000)

I bypassed Thomas as my top outright pick in favor of Sungjae Im, and I already have regrets. Thomas was the only big name to get off to a strong start in Chiba, firing a 4-under 66 that featured five birdies. The six players above him have combined for four career TOUR victories, so he definitely has the highest ceiling of the 15 players sitting at 4-under or better after the opening round.

Thomas improbably still hasn’t won since the 2022 PGA Championship, which feels light years away. But early in his career he had great success in Asia, winning the CIMB Classic twice in Malaysia and THE CJ CUP another two times in South Korea. He knows what it takes to win these types of events, is trending in the right direction, has less star power in his way after just one round and remains eager to end a victory drought. If anything, these odds should be lower. Sign me up.

Takumi Kanaya (+3000)

If you want more of an outside-the-box selection, Kanaya seems intriguing. The former top-ranked amateur has been playing well in Japan in recent weeks, going second-win-fourth in his last three starts. Like Thomas, he opened with a 4-under 66 to sit T7 and three shots off the lead after the opening round.

Narashino Country Club can provide volatile scoring at times – just ask Schauffele, whose quad came largely from a shot that ended up wedged between tree roots and led to two failed chip-out attempts and an unplayable. But with the low scoring near the top, it feels like the 30 players who opened with even-par 70 or worse will need a serious bounce back Friday to re-enter the outright conversation.

So would Kanaya nabbing his first TOUR win this week count as somewhat of a surprise? Sure. But do the odds seem fair given the number of contenders, his comfort factor in his home country and current form? Absolutely.

Fades

Taylor Moore (+650)

The Rocket Mortgage Classic. That’s the last time Moore cracked the top 10, and the only time he has done so since May. Yes, he’s a proven TOUR winner having survived the Snake Pit at the 2023 Valspar Championship, but his form has taken a hit this summer and this opener largely came out of nowhere. He finished near the bottom of the pack in Memphis to end his FedExCup Playoffs run, then added T42 and T29 finishes in his first two starts of the FedExCup Fall.

Moore had endured a run of five missed cuts in seven starts in the heart of the season, so there are clearly signs of a turnaround after Thursday’s round that featured six birdies and an eagle against just one dropped shot. But with five players within two shots and 14 within three, this remains a wide-open race so I’m hesitant to invest at the top of the odds board – particularly for a player whose +6600 pre-tournament odds felt like a better barometer of his win chances.

Eric Cole (+900)

I feel like too much of this number is tied to Cole’s runner-up finish here last year. The same could be said of Beau Hossler, who sits at 4-under but saw his odds plunge to +1600, but Hossler comes in with more form. Cole has had a tough time following up his Rookie of the Year performance in 2024, with no finish better than his T6 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic (ironically, where Moore also contended). He was T16 at the Sanderson Farms Champoinship but missed the cut amid blustery conditions last week in Las Vegas.

Cole has the game to hang near the top of the board after his opening 64 left him one shot off the lead, but questions still remain about his ability to close after such a great 2023 campaign that didn’t include a victory. Should Cole be in the mix over the weekend, he’ll certainly be feeling a little extra heat as he looks to snag a maiden TOUR title.

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