Draws and Fades: Late Justin Thomas eagle shifts momentum towards fifth win in Asia

Justin Thomas stared down his 5-iron from 214 yards on his final hole in the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP second round knowing it was pretty good. In the end, it was even better than he hoped: It scared the hole before settling just a few feet away.

The resulting putt found the bottom of the cup for a closing eagle at Narashino Country Club and a 6-under 64, good enough to move the two-time major winner to 10-under and into a tie for second. He sits just two shots off the lead with 36 holes to play.

Nico Echavarria (64) has sole possession of the lead at 12-under with his former schoolmate Taylor Moore (67) joining Thomas at 10-under. Eric Cole (67), Seamus Power (62) and C.T. Pan (66) share fourth at 9-under and Rickie Fowler (64) and Max Greyserman (68) are just behind at 8-under.

Thomas, who has four of his 15 PGA TOUR wins in Asia, is the new betting favorite at +300 via BetMGM Sportsbook as he looks to make it five wins on the continent. This would be his first in Japan after two in Korea and two in Malaysia.

The latest odds are as follows:

• +300: Justin Thomas (-10, T2)
• +450: Nico Echavarria (-12, 1st)
• +650: Taylor Moore (-10, T2)
• +800: Seamus Power (-9, T4)
• +900: Eric Cole (-9, T4)
• +1100: C.T. Pan (-9, T4)
• +1200: Max Greyserman (-8, T7)
• +1400: Rickie Fowler (-8, T7)
• +2200: Jhonattan Vegas (-7, T9)

Draw

Justin Thomas +300

The odds are probably too short to get overly aggressive from here, but everything is starting to point towards Thomas ending his nearly two-and-a-half-year win drought. As mentioned above, he’s already won four times in Asia in the past CIMB Classics in 2015 and 2017 in Malaysia and 2017 and 2019 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelsons in South Korea. He currently leads this field in total eagles, Sand Saves, Par 5 Scoring, 3-Putt Avoidance, Bogey Avoidance (he has just one bogey) and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. At third in GIR and Par 4 Scoring and fourth in SG: Approach, victory is right in his grasp.

“I feel like you can make a lot of birdies out here if I keep driving it like I have," Thomas said. “But so can everybody else. Just got to keep the hammer down.”

Takumi Kanaya Top 10 +250 FanDuel

Sitting just outside the top 10 in T13 is the former amateur standout from Japan. With a win and fourth place in his two Japan Tour starts this month, I don’t doubt his form and I’ve never doubted the potential of his game. While six back from the lead might be a bit much, I do expect Kanaya to ride the home-game wave inside the top 10 over the weekend. He regressed on approach from Thursday to Friday, but I believe his “bad” round is behind him. Watch him shine this weekend.

Fade

Taylor Moore +650

Despite being more than double the odds of Thomas while starting from the same spot, I can’t help but worry about Moore’s SG: Approach stats so far. Of the top 12 on the current leaderboard, he’s the only one giving up strokes on Approach, sitting 51st in the field at -1.112. The rest of his game has been brilliant – ranking second in SG: Off-the-Tee, third in SG: Around the Green and fourth in SG: Putting. But I just can’t see that standard holding form under the pressure of the weekend with a player of Thomas’ stature in the same group.

“I hit a lot of fairways for the most part," Moore said. "Missed a few coming in. Didn't hit my irons great on the back nine, but yeah, overall I feel like I'm swinging it well. Saw some putts go in early today, too, which was nice…. In a good position for the weekend”