Draws and Fades: Conservative and aggressive plays at Black Desert Championship

The chase is on.

Through three rounds of the Black Desert Championship, the star of the Korn Ferry Tour this season, Matt McCarty, has taken the tournament by the scruff of the neck. But a raft of contenders line up behind him as he looks to turn just his third PGA TOUR start into a victory.

Earning the Three-Victory Promotion on the Korn Ferry Tour this season, McCarty is showing that winning form is winning form regardless of where it comes from.

A 7-under 64 on Saturday at the Black Desert Resort in Utah pushed McCarty to 19-under through 54 holes, two shots clear of Joe Highsmith (62), Kevin Streelman (63), Stephan Jaeger (68) and Harris English (66) as your 54-hole leader.

Harry Hall (64) will still have dreams of a second TOUR win this season, sitting at 15-under, while Beau Hossler (66) is still a chance to go one spot better than last week (losing out on a playoff) in a tie for seventh at 14-under with Kurt Kitayama (64) and Chad Ramey (64).

We’ve seen big comebacks on the PGA TOUR before, and a low number is out there at the Black Desert Resort, so there are some aggressive betting plays out there if you’re a risk taker.

As Henrik Norlander and Tyler Duncan showed on the back nine on Saturday, the lava rock is waiting for errant shots and big numbers can follow. As the pressure ramps up on Sunday, the ability to stay out of the danger zones will be more important than ever.

But Highsmith also showed what’s out there for the chasers. His 9-under 62 on Saturday saw him come from six behind the lead all the way to just two shots back. Streelman was five back starting the round.

With a round to go the latest odds via BetMGM sit as follows:

• +170: Matt McCarty (-19, 1st)
• +400: Stephan Jaeger (-17, T2)
• +450: Harris English (-17, T2)
• +700: Joe Highsmith (-17, T2)
• +900: Kevin Streelman (-17, T2)
• +2000: Harry Hall (-15, 6th)
• +2800: Kurt Kitayama (-14, T7)
• +3000: Beau Hossler (-14, T7

So do you stake your cash in a conservative manner or go for the aggressive play with 18 to go? I think McCarty is going to be a good TOUR player and a future winner, but I’m not convinced it will be here. It’s certainly possible but I think opportunity exists elsewhere. Here are my thoughts for either a conservative or aggressive attitude to Sunday.

Conservative

Stephan Jaeger +400

Jaeger didn’t have his best stuff on Saturday but still finds himself in contention just two shots back. As a winner already this season, taking down Scottie Scheffler no less at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, Jaeger might have a nerves advantage over McCarty down the stretch. Inside the top 25 in the field in all Strokes Gained metrics.

Aggressive

Harry Hall +2000

Another player with a win already this season who as such will be fine playing with an aggressive attitude. Hall ranks third in the field in SG: Putting, something he will need to continue if he is to make a run from four shots back. Leads field in 3-Putt Avoidance and Birdie or Better Conversion. Playing great on the par 5s and is T4 in Driving Distance.