Benny and the Bets: New course, new players, new strategies in Utah

The Black Desert Championship is throwing some curve balls at the golf betting public with a new course and a lot of "new" or seemingly unknown players in the field leaving us to look to new strategies when it comes to picking a winner.

Debuting on the PGA TOUR schedule, the Black Desert Resort in Utah won’t bring us the usual course history data to rely on, nor do we have a plethora of the game’s stars at the top of the betting boards.

So rather than lean on course history or big-name players, we have to employ different strategies when looking for winning plays this week. Here are some tips on how to do so.

1. Start with current form

This should always be a factor in your handicapping in golf, but on weeks like this, when the field is full of more unknown quantities, it becomes more important. The biggest decision you might face this week is if betting favorite Keith Mitchell (+1600) and Beau Hossler (+2800) will continue their form from last week where they both had seemingly locked victory at different times on Sunday only to both fall short.

Their form, second and third in Jackson, is something to consider, but so too is a potential emotional letdown from the way they lost. Mitchell had a putt to win on the 72nd hole, only to three putt to lose. Hossler pulled his drive on 18 badly knowing a birdie could win and ultimately lost in a playoff to Kevin Yu.

But others in the field are also playing well of late. Those in the field with at least three top-20 finishes from their last five TOUR starts include: Jacob Bridgeman, Patrick Fishburn, Patton Kizzire, Peter Kuest and Mitchell.

Players with two top 20s in their last five starts including the above plus: Vince Whaley, Adam Svensson, Justin Suh, J.J. Spaun, Alex Smalley, Matti Schmid, Seamus Power, C.T. Pan, Henrik Norlander, Mac Meissner, Hossler, Harry Hall and Lucas Glover.

Kevin Chappell, Rico Hoey, Chris Kirk, Justin Lower, Andrew Novak, Power, Chad Ramey, Schmid and Austin Smotherman come in having not missed a cut in their last five TOUR starts.

2. Check course quirks, i.e. elevation

Ivins, Utah, is around 3,000 feet above sea level, which is somewhat similar to Las Vegas where the TOUR holds the Shriners Children’s Open. While it’s not quite Denver altitude changes, the ball will fly further than normal, and players who have shown an affinity to dial in their numbers at this elevation could become a target. If there is a player you like, don’t be afraid to check their results at the Barracuda Championship or Shriners in the past.

3. Look for course designer comparisons

Tom Weiskopf also designed TPC Scottsdale, where the WM Phoenix Open is held, and TPC Craig Ranch for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. While we don’t know exactly how similar Black Desert Resort will play, we can look for players who have done well on Weiskopf designs in the past. We do know it’s a spectacular view amongst the lava rocks and the fairways should be forgiving given it’s a resort course. Driving accuracy might not be as important as some other weeks on TOUR. Again, as you find players you like, look to cross-reference their results on these courses.

4. Check the local talent

Patrick Fishburn and Zac Blair headline some local talent in the field this week who deserve some attention. Fishburn grew up in Ogden alongside Blair, with the two later becoming teammates at BYU in 2011-12. Fishburn is a 2024 PGA TOUR rookie and has four top 10s this season, including a solo third at the Procore Championship and a T4 at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans where he teamed up with Blair.

Blair first joined the PGA TOUR at the beginning of the 2014-15 season and spent one season back on the Korn Ferry Tour (2019) before returning to the PGA TOUR in 2019-20. He owns two career runner-up finishes, most recently at the 2024 ISCO Championship.

Peter Kuest played at BYU from 2016-2020 and won 10 individual titles. He notched back-to-back top 10s on the PGA TOUR earlier this year at the Valero Texas Open and the Corales Puntacana Championship.

5. Consider reducing unit size and spreading the love wider

In a case like this, with many players at higher odds, you can drop your unit size in half and double your players in the outright market. This would be my strategy this week especially given the top of the board, outside of Mitchell, are all over +2000 odds. There are numerous outrights to choose from in the +4000 to +6000 range and even beyond.

Benny's betting card

• Outrights and Top 10 (half units): Harry Hall (+4000, +350), Daniel Berger (+5000, +350), Patrick Fishburn (+2800, +275), Peter Kuest (+20000, +1400)

We are starting to see glimpses of the old Daniel Berger, and if he keeps knocking down top 10s and getting in contention, you won’t see long odds like this for long. Claims the back injury is not a concern at all anymore.

Hall is a recent champion on TOUR who has a nice record at similar elevation in Las Vegas. With forgiving fairways, I’m looking for a player who is great around the greens (second) and decent on them. He's also coming off a couple of DP World Tour top 20s.

Fishburn has three top-sixes in his last five starts and now returns to his home in Utah. He leads Strokes Gained: Total over the last five starts in terms of this field.

Kuest is a flyer for some fun thanks to his BYU ties.

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