Draws and Fades: Look to recent winner Stephan Jaeger among lead pack at Black Desert Championship

This week at the inaugural Black Desert Championship, the unknowns outweigh the knowns.

A wide-open field where oddsmakers struggled to identify a pre-tournament frontrunner. A new venue, with the PGA TOUR returning to Utah for the first time in 61 years.

Even through two rounds – or nearly, with second-round play suspended Friday night because of darkness – participants are still playing guessing games. Adam Svensson, who led after an opening-round 60 and was the first to post 13-under heading into the weekend, estimated that 11 different shots at Black Desert Resort are blind.

“Probably five holes I would say that are pretty much just hitting into the abyss,” Svensson said.

The guessing games will continue into the weekend in the Utah lava field. No one has distanced from the pack through two rounds, with the top seven players separated by two shots. Oddsmakers at BetMGM Sportsbook give a lean toward Stephan Jaeger, a winner already this year on TOUR who hooped a pair of pitch shots on the back nine Friday to take sole possession of the lead.

Updated odds to win Black Desert Championship (via BetMGM)

• +350: Stephan Jaeger (-14)
• +500: Matt McCarty (-12 through 15)
• +650: Adam Svensson (-13)
• +800: Ben Kohles (-13)
• +1000: Harris English (-12)
• +1200: Henrik Norlander (-12)
• +1800: Sam Ryder (-12)
• +2500: Lee Hodges (-11)

With 36 holes to play, and a few more for a handful of players, here’s how the handicap shapes up among a wide-open board:

Draws

Stephan Jaeger (+350)

In a field full of variables, Jaeger represents the most straightforward option. He’s the only player on the first page of the leaderboard who made the BMW Championship, thereby securing access to Signature Events for 2025. He won the Texas Children’s Hospital Houston Open earlier this year, meaning his ticket to Maui for The Sentry has been booked for months. He’s likely not sweating the difference between a T3 and a T6 this week.

Such a scenario can create a sense of freedom, especially in a player who just a few months ago stared down Scottie Scheffler and lived to tell the tale.

Matt McCarty (+500)

Like Jaeger, McCarty is in position to swing for the fences. The top-ranked player on the Korn Ferry Tour points list this year, McCarty is fully exempt next year regardless of his results this fall. It’s an enviable position, and one that might give McCarty some unexpected win equity (especially having won three times this year on the KFT).

McCarty sits at 12-under but will have three holes left to finish in the morning, including a 20-foot eagle putt on the par-5 seventh and another par-5 on No. 9. That gives him a great opportunity to get to 13 under – or perhaps join Jaeger at 14 under before the second round officially concludes.

Fades

Ben Kohles (+800)

Kohles’ 72nd-hole collapse at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson is the stuff nightmares are made of, as he bogeyed the par-5 finisher to hand the trophy to Taylor Pendrith. He hasn’t cracked the top 10 since, with last week’s T16 finish in Mississippi his best subsequent result. Should he get back in the mix, those palms will once again be sweaty. Kohles made an ace in the opening round but has been relatively wild off the tee, making up a ton of ground on the greens. I’m going to sit this one out and see if he can prove me wrong down the stretch.

Henrik Norlander (+1200)

Norlander was a popular pick last week at the Sanderson Farms, where he had played well including a playoff loss in 2023. Maybe he got his schedule mixed up by a week. Either way the Swede is in the groove through two rounds, although the stat line indicates he’s doing it with a bit of smoke and mirrors. Norlander is 37th in SG: Off the Tee and 77th in SG: Around the Green, sinking a ton of putts and hitting some crisp irons. He’ll need a more well-rounded effort over the weekend to nab his first TOUR win, and I’m looking elsewhere given the plentiful options in contention.

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.