Sunday Story-lines: Keith Mitchell takes bite out of Snake Pit to set up shot at Valspar glory

An incredible fightback and sublime flourish over the daunting Snake Pit finish has catapulted Keith Mitchell to the catbird seat as he chases his second PGA TOUR win at the Valspar Championship.

Mitchell looked dead and buried when he sent his bogey putt home on the sixth hole on Saturday, a third bogey in his last four holes, to drop back to 3-under and flame out to +4000 on the BetMGM Sportsbook odds board.

But a birdie on the seventh cauterized the bleeding before a stunning final stretch. Mitchell birdied the 12th and 14th holes before hitting the difficult final three holes, affectionately and appropriately called the "Snake Pit" at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course.

He knocked in a 13-foot birdie on 16, hit his tee shot on the 177-yard 17th to near tap-in for another and then didn’t need his putter at all on the tough final hole by holing out for eagle from 151 yards.

Mitchell became the first player to ever negotiate the final three holes in 4-under as his 5-under 66 sent him to 10-under for the week and a two-shot lead. He is now +180 to win outright.

The one-time TOUR winner now leads by two shots over Seamus Power (68), Peter Malnati (68) and Mackenzie Hughes (69) with Cameron Young (68), Brendon Todd (70) and Chandler Phillips (70) three off the pace at 7-under. Five players sit four back at 6-under in a tie for eighth.

While Mitchell showed how a player can shoot up the leaderboard at Innisbrook, Justin Thomas shot a 79 to show how it can easily all go pear-shaped as well. The volatility of this course allows anyone within four shots of the lead to go to Sunday confident they can get it done.

Here is a quick look at the latest odds and storylines heading to Sunday with my draws and fades below.

• +180: Keith Mitchell (-10, 1st) – Chasing first win since March of 2019 after being first player to tame Snake Pit in 4-under.
• +700: Mackenzie Hughes (-8, T2) – Looking for third TOUR win and International Presidents Cup berth in home country.
• +750: Cameron Young (-7, T5) – Former TOUR Rookie of the Year still chasing first victory after 14 top-10s and six runner-ups.
• +800: Seamus Power (-8, T2) – Came from three behind after 54 holes to win 2021 Barbasol Championship.
• +1200: Brendon Todd (-7, T5) – Seventh appearance at the Valspar Championship; best finish is T24 (2015).
• +1200: Peter Malnati (-8, T2) – Lone win on TOUR came in November 2015. Just three top-5s since.
• +2000: Adam Hadwin (-6, T8) – Valspar champion in 2017, his only TOUR win.
• +2500: Chandler Phillips (-7, T5) – TOUR rookie in just his 13th start. Best prior finish T24.
• +3300: Adam Svensson (-6, T8) – Missed last three cuts. Just one bogey on back nine this week.
• +5000: Cameron Champ (-6, T8) – Has just three bogeys this week, chasing fourth TOUR win. Opened +20000, last two wins opened +12500.

DRAWS

Keith Mitchell +180

I’m not exactly advocating jumping on Cashmere Keith at these odds, but hopefully you listened to either my colleague Matt DelVecchio after Thursday when he was +2000 or myself yesterday when he was +1400. Mitchell is teeming with confidence after his insane finish and fightback and leads the field where it counts statistically as well – in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. It jives with his season rank of 12th so I’m expecting his ball-striking will continue to be solid, forcing others to take risks to chase him down. I’d like him to make a few more putts because ranking 65th on the greens is a little scary.

“If I hit the shots like I hit coming down the stretch tomorrow I'll have a chance. Because I hit 'em all where I wanted to. Johnny and I had some good numbers and we executed 'em well,” Mitchell said. “Out here with the wind, small greens, small fairways, you can hit good shots and not get rewarded. But all in all, it's really all we can control tomorrow.”

Cameron Young +750

If anyone is playing well enough to catch Mitchell it is Young, who is overdue a win on TOUR. Young is the only player in the top seven on the leaderboard to be gaining strokes on the field in all the major Strokes Gained metrics. He’s second in SG: Off-the-Tee and ninth Tee-to-Green. Like Mitchell he gave shots away early Saturday before fighting back. If he starts better on Sunday, he can put some fear in the contenders.

“It's a golf course that's difficult and you know that, with the scoring so bunched, it just takes two good swings and you can move up a lot… I think provides a lot of opportunities,” Young said. “I tend to like more difficult golf courses in general, and I feel like the scoring kind of does this at those places.”

FADE

Peter Malnati +1200

As mentioned above, it has been over eight years since Malnati won on TOUR but more interestingly, he’s had just three top-fives since. He will need to buck those nerves plus maintain his tee-to-green game. Ranked 35th in SG: Tee to Green this week is admirable, but his season rank of 142nd in this metric have me expecting a Sunday regression.

“It's why I play and practice, to come out here on the PGA TOUR and have a chance to win golf tournaments," Malnati said. "This is my 10th season. I can't think of very many times where I've actually teed off on Sunday realistically thinking of winning the tournament.

“So, it feels -- unfortunately, it feels special. Hopefully, it will feel normal by the end of the year maybe, but it feels special and it's something that I'm really excited about. It's why I work hard so I can have these opportunities.”

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