Benny and the Bets: Sam Burns may get burned by winds; Nick Taylor better bet at Valspar

“Burns baby Burns” is all anyone wants to tell you ahead of the Valspar Championship, and it makes sense. Sam Burns has won at Innisbrook Resort twice and finished T6 in his last three starts in this event.

But the fact that he will play early Thursday and late Friday, potentially getting the teeth of some tough winds expected over the final three rounds, should give bettors a little trepidation in taking Burns at his reasonably short +1100 odds via BetMGM Sportsbook.

While it’s only Wednesday right now at the time of publishing, the extended forecast for play shows significant winds for Friday, Saturday and Sunday afternoons and from three different directions. Players playing late/early over the opening two rounds could have a significant advantage.

“A developing low-pressure system over the northern gulf will bring rain and the chance for thunderstorms to Florida on Friday before shifting east late in the day," PGA TOUR meteorologist Stewart Williams said in his forecast. "Rainfall could be heavy at times, especially with thunderstorms. Drier conditions are expected to return for the weekend with highs in the low to mid-70s.”

The forecast says Friday winds from the southeast at 15-25 mph with gusts from 30-35 mph. Saturday winds will be from the northwest at 15-25 mph and gusts up to 30 mph while Sunday will switch to the northeast at 10-15 mph and gusts at 20 mph.

Forecasts have been wrong in the past, but it still must be a little disconcerting for Burns and some other big names like Justin Thomas (+1400), Sungjae Im (+2200), Tony Finau (+2200) and Cameron Young (+2200) who are all in this wave.

On the other side of the coin, betting favorite Xander Schauffele (+800), and PLAYERS runner-up Brian Harman (+2000) appear to be on the right side of the draw. So, too, do Jordan Spieth (+1400), Keegan Bradley (+4000) and Nick Taylor (+3500).

So, when we go to our picks this week, either trust the forecast and load up on late/early players or, at the very least, hedge across both waves. When we have the chance of winds like this, or even delays from rain, as bettors we should be aware and adjust accordingly.

Each week I give you my top few picks in each category, but this week I’ll give you some across both waves so you can make a call closer to go time with the latest weather information.

Also, know this. The last 10 champions at the Valspar Championship were inside the top six for the week in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. This means they had to drive the ball well, have good approach play, and be decent around the green when needed. In other words, an all-around performance. The last three seasons have also seen a shift to needing to also putt well, with the last three winners inside the top 10 of SG: Putting.

That’s a very roundabout way to say you need your entire game on point, much like last week at TPC Sawgrass. Shortcuts aren’t available here.

Outrights

I’ve come around to Canadian Taylor (+3500). I’ve had the pleasure to watch him closely over the last 12 months, including at his recent WM Phoenix Open win. He still appears to be widely discounted by many, but I’m looking forward to having him on the International Team at the Presidents Cup in his home country at the end of the season, going head-to-head with some of the U.S. Team’s best.

Taylor was T10 here last year and has put together some decent patches of play in the Florida Swing on the way to T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T26 last week. Only poor third rounds in both tournaments cost him a chance at victory. Taylor is ranked at the average on TOUR at 66th in SG: Tee-to-Green but relies on his 12th-ranked approach game and 11th-ranked putting. Consider a First Round Leader play also given his Round 1 scoring average this season is 67.75, improving further to 66.25 in just his last four starts.

Despite my warnings of the weather, if you want to play on that side of the draw, then Burns (+1100) can’t be discounted. As mentioned earlier he won in 2021 and '22 with a solid T6 last year. Interestingly before his two wins at Innisbrook, Burns had a recent TOUR top-10 (Bay Hill in 2022 and the Zurich Classic in 2021). He had four top-10s this season between The American Express and The Genesis Invitational.

Place markets

Doug Ghim (Top 10 +400) is running a heater with five straight results inside the top 16 on the PGA TOUR, and more importantly has moved himself to 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green. Look for him in multiple categories be it place markets, head-to-heads, or if you’re feeling it, the outright at +4000. He is in the late/early wave.

Keegan Bradley (Top 10 +400) is also in the possibly easier late/early wave and was runner-up here in 2021. He did miss the cut either side of that second-place finish, but he’s historically started fast here with a 67.5 first-round scoring average in his last six trips to Innisbrook.

Brian Harman (Top 20 +100) could be a conservative bank builder as a top-20 play from the good side of the draw if you think he can leverage his runner-up at TPC Sawgrass rather than face a hangover from the near miss. He was T12 at Bay Hill also. Does he maintain the rage, or face a little exhaustion?

As for the other side of the draw? Well despite his missed cut last week, perhaps this is a decisive week for Thomas (Top 10 +150). He is 10th in SG: tee-to-Green after all.Can he leverage the extra rest into a hotter start than the other big names and survive Friday afternoon winds?

Remember though, it might be worth waiting for the opening two rounds to play out before investing in any chalk from the windy side of the draw.

Longshots

From the potentially tough side of the draw Adam Schenk at +6600 can be looked at given he’s been inside the top 20 at Valspar two of the last three years, including runner-up a year ago. He also found a little form at TPC Sawgrass with a T19.

On the possibly easier side of things is Joel Dahmen at +10000 ready to turn around his issues highlighted on Netflix's Full Swing? The Netflix star was a sneaky decent T11 at THE PLAYERS and has made the cut three or three trips in the past at Valspar. At 14th on TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green, maybe a turnaround is coming for the fan favorite.

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