Draws & Fades: Weather flip puts Justin Thomas in driver’s seat at wide open Valspar Championship

Mother Nature struck the Valspar Championship but not in the way expected, giving Justin Thomas a great chance to end his almost two-year win drought at the Innisbrook Resort.

With pre-tournament forecasts showing the early/late side of the draw would face fierce Friday afternoon winds, Thomas and others on that slate appeared to be facing extra adversity at the Copperhead Course.

Instead, it was the Friday morning players who felt the brunt of high winds, knocking the likes of pre-tournament favorite Xander Schauffele down a few pegs and allowing the afternoon wave to grind their way up the leaderboard.

At the end of Friday, we have a compact championship with five players leading at 6-under, and another nine players, including Thomas, just a shot behind. While play was halted for darkness before everyone could finish, the cut is set to fall at even-par meaning everyone in the field is well within striking distance with two days to play.

Those at the top are Kevin Streelman and Chandler Phillips from the tougher section of the draw and Stewart Cink, Brendon Todd and Mackenzie Hughes from the calmer side.

With Thomas sitting one shot back are Peter Malnati, Lucas Glover, Seamus Power, Scott Stallings, Keith Mitchell, Aaron Baddeley, Michael Kim and Rico Hoey (through 16 holes).

Thomas won his first PGA TOUR event in his 39th TOUR start as a pro (43rd all-time start after four amateur starts) back in November of 2015 and has since added 14 more TOUR titles including two majors.

But the 2022 PGA Championship victory is his most recent, as Thomas found a form dip in 2023 and failed to make the FedExCup Playoffs for the first time.

The Valspar Championship is the 36th TOUR event Thomas has suited up for since his last victory, the longest win drought of his career since his rookie foray.

As we look at who might prevail from here it is important to check in with the weather once again. More winds are expected Saturday and Sunday, from the west–northwest on Saturday and from the northeast on Sunday. Gusts could get up to 20-25mph on both days.

Here are the latest odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.

• +600: Justin Thomas (-5, T6)
• +1000: Brendon Todd (-6, T1)
• +1100: Mackenzie Hughes (-6, T1)
• +1400: Cameron Young (-4, T15)
• +1400: Keith Mitchell (-5, T6)
• +1400: Lucas Glover (-5, T6)
• +1800: Xander Schauffele (-2, T30)
• +2000: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (-4, T15)
• +2200: Seamus Power (-5, T6)

DRAWS

Justin Thomas +600

This is a test of faith for sure as if you watched Thomas off the tee on Friday you’d be flinching at this take. Thomas is ranked 120th in the field for SG: Off-the-Tee hitting just seven of 13 fairways in each of the opening two rounds. But I’m banking on him getting rid of some of this issue on the range and coming out ready to rumble in the third round. Thomas’ approach game has still been on point, lifting his SG: Tee-to-Green rank to 16th in the field. He’s 10th on TOUR in this stat so I expect his all-around game to lift… which means we just need him to make his fair share of putts. Currently, he’s 25th this week in SG: Putting so he’s in great shape with just a little improvement off the tee.

Keith Mitchell +1400

Cashmere Keith’s win drought is much longer than Thomas, with his lone win coming at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches in March of 2019. But the fan-favorite is in position to grab another Florida triumph. At 12th on TOUR this season in SG: Tee-to-Green and fourth in the same metric so far this week, Mitchell is as close to dialed in as he might get as he chases win No. 2. Much like Thomas, he will need to make a few more putts than his regular average to close the deal.

Rico Hoey +5000 (+350 for Top 10 via DraftKings)

Consider this a lottery pick as I’m not convinced Hoey can go all the way, but I do think there is an opportunity to get on a player for a place at some value while they are hitting it lovely. Hoey has to return in the morning to finish the last two holes, both tough, so it is conceivable he might drop a shot before the third round begins. In this case, you should get slightly better odds at a Top 10 finish that I believe he can push towards. Hoey is eighth in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 21st in this metric on the season.

FADES

The Leaders: Streelman (+2500), Phillips (+3300), Cink (+2500), Todd (+1000) and Hughes (+1100)

Putting my neck way out on the chopping block here by fading the best players in the tournament thus far but this is as much about the compact nature of this leaderboard as anything else. The reality is we could have added four or five more draws from further down the leaderboard as unpredictable winds are going to knock some guys around and give others a chance to charge through the pack. Of all of these, the most likely to hold on to contention are Todd and Hughes but their odds are not juicy enough to take the risk at this point as the hunters come for them. We can revisit this quintet after one more round and see if they are worthy of a splash to the finish.

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