Draws & Fades: Scottie Scheffler’s winning drought, putting woes nearing an end

There’s been a lot of discussion recently amongst the Golfbet crew about Scottie Scheffler and whether or not he is truly in a league of his own.

The terms “killer” and “finisher” have been thrown around, questioning Scheffler’s true competitive character. Unfortunately, in my mind, these claims result from an overreaction of the “what have you shown me lately” culture we live in nowadays.

Scheffler has not won in almost a year (THE PLAYERS Championship 2023) but has played some amazing golf. Such great golf where he’s found himself consistently at the top of the leaderboard – exactly where he sits now at 9-under through 54 holes of the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard.

Scheffler, the +150 favorite with BetMGM Sportsbook, is joined at 9-under by Shane Lowry. U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark is one back at 8-under with Will Zalatoris, Russell Henley and Hideki Matsuyama tied fourth at 7-under with one more round to go at Bay Hill Club & Lodge.

Harris English (6-under), Rory McIlroy, Russell Henley and Max Homa (all at 5-under) will all still think they can take the title.

But back to Scheffler. Being so close to wins without pulling through has led to speculation that he either lost his killer instinct or worse, never actually had it at all. I’m here to tell you this is not the case and that what we are experiencing right now with Scheffler is actually just the eye of the storm.

It’s a mini “sophomore slump” that, once it has run its course, will be followed by a wrath that could only be bested by the Big Cat himself.

Here is why:

It's no secret that Scheffler is in a rut. A rut that almost every player goes through at some point in their career. Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas and McIlroy have experienced big issues losing parts of their game that they normally relied on and were forced to adjust. Thomas lost his irons, Spieth lost his woods and McIlroy's struggles with his short game are well documented.

Scheffler is in the slump phase of his career, and it centers around his flat stick. The Texan ended his 2021-22 campaign at 58th in SG: Putting and since then has been ranked in triple digits on TOUR. Last season he finished 162nd but still won twice. (THE PLAYERS and WM Phoenix Open).

That’s where the alarm should sound. Scheffler’s slump is so good that not only has he still been able to win, but the other aspects of his game have yet to falter as week in and week out he continues to amaze with his driver and iron game.

Then there’s the notion of his killer instinct. The kind of elite competitive instinct where a player shows up clutch when they need it the most in final rounds on Sunday.

Have they forgotten this is the man who won the 2022 Dell Technologies Match Play Championship? Taking down players head-to-head.

What about at the 2023 WM Phoenix Open, Scheffler prevailed matching Nick Taylor with a final round 65. Scheffler’s final-round performance fended off fellow star competitor Jon Rahm who started the day only two back.

In the 2022 WM Phoenix Open Scheffler found himself in a playoff versus another star competitor on TOUR, Patrick Cantlay. The two dueled it out for three holes which ended with Scheffler getting the best of Cantlay, grabbing a birdie on the third playoff hole, some would say, in a killer-like fashion.

Others tell me Scheffler’s near misses at the 2022 U.S. Open and 2023 PGA Championship are proof he doesn’t close. I argue he shot better final-round scores than the winner and needed just a little luck. Had he got it this conversation would be moot.

We have seen Scheffler’s emergence since his 59 in the 2020 FedExCup Playoffs. He has six TOUR wins including at THE PLAYERS and the Masters. He has no worse than a T17, four top-10s, all in his five-event “slump” this year. Once the 27-year-old’s putter emerges from this lull, beware for the wrath that will be known as “prime Scottie Scheffler”.

Updated odds to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (via BetMGM)

• +150: Scottie Scheffler (-9)
• +400: Shane Lowry (-9),
• +650: Wyndham Clark (-8)
• +1000: Will Zalatoris (-7)
• +1200: Hideki Matsuyama (-7)
• +1600: Rory McIlroy (-5), Russell Henley (-7)
• +2500: Harris English (-6)
• +3300: Sam Burns (-5)

DRAWS

Scottie Scheffler +150

Scheffler showed us a lot today. He started with a front nine 38 where he ranked 55th in SG: Putting in the field for the week. That changed quickly once his killer instincts kicked in. He finished with a 4-under 32 back nine, but more importantly improved his SG: Putting ranking from 55th to 28th, having one-putted his final seven greens of the day. Look for this to continue into Round 4 in what may have been a nine-hole turning point in the saga of Scheffler’s putting woes.

FADES

Shane Lowry +400

I faded Lowry after Round 1, and I’ll continue to fade him to win outright. Lowry needs to prove he can show up in final-round battles on Sunday. Until he does, I cannot trust him, even more so versus the likes of world no. 1 Scheffler and major winner, Clark.