Draws & Fades: Is Scottie Scheffler a true finisher? Time to find out

Contrary to my own misspeak on camera earlier this week, Scottie Scheffler is a winner. But is he a finisher? That’s the question on the line over the weekend at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard.

The world No. 1 surged home in the second round at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge with an eagle and three birdies in his last seven holes to join a six-way tie for the lead through 36 holes and become the clear betting favorite at +225.

Sitting at 7-under through 36 holes, Scheffler is joined by fellow major winners Shane Lowry, Hideki Matsuyama, Brian Harman, Wyndham Clark plus Russell Henley. Will Zalatoris is a shot back at 6-under while a few big names in Justin Thomas, Max Homa and Viktor Hovland are part of the chasers sitting three shots back.

Regardless of the strength of those in the mix with him, this is a true test of Scheffler’s dominance at the top having failed at his last attempt last month at the WM Phoenix Open.

Scheffler is in a glorified space of rare ball-striking, the type that arguably should have yielded at least a handful more PGA TOUR wins in the last 18 months than the impressive six he has (including a Masters and THE PLAYERS).

And it brings up a debate topic. Does the world No. 1 have a killer instinct where he takes hold of a tournament and stomps on the neck of others or is he just so consistently epic from tee-to-green that he paper cuts the field to submission?

A win is a win, however you get there, but my sometimes-outspoken take on Scheffler is he struggles in a head-to-head furnace battle. Those who come out on top in these atmospheres go from great, to truly elite in my view.

Scheffler is awesome from tee-to-green but has been diabolically bad on short putts. Like most, I saw his efforts today that included a great 45-foot birdie putt. But I also note his eagle came from a chip in and he still is missing short putts. Can he replicate two years ago and win at Bay Hill? I’ll argue it’s his tournament to lose from here given how pure he strikes it… but I worry he still might.

Updated odds to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (via BetMGM)

• +225: Scottie Scheffler (-7)
• +800: Hideki Matsuyama (-7)
• +1000: Wyndham Clark (-7)
• +1100: Shane Lowry (-7), Will Zalatoris (-6)
• +1200: Russell Henley (-7)
• +1400: Brian Harman (-7)
• +1600: Viktor Hovland (-4)
• +2200: Sam Burns (-4)
• +2500: Justin Thomas (-4), Max Homa (-4)

DRAWS

Hideki Matsuyama (+800)

Had the Japanese superstar not proven himself at The Genesis Invitational recently I’d struggle to advocate for him but it appears he has mirrored up his approach game (ranked eighth) with his putting (fourth) so far this week and that is the deadly combination at Bay Hill. As things continue to bake out, I can see the opportunity for Matsuyama to complete a rare career triple. Winning the Signature Events hosted by the legends of the game in Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods and Arnold Palmer. It’s a bit of a flyer as his putting stats for the season are not impressive, but I’m prepared to factor in his return from injuries as part of this. Another concern is his form around the greens, losing -0.773 strokes. If his approach game falters, so too could Matsuyama.

“Ball-striking wise there isn't much difference compared to The Genesis, the week at The Genesis. I feel like I've been putting pretty good,” he said. “Chipping-wise, there's some good chips and bad chips. Overall, I feel like my game is on point, so, hopefully, I can keep that for the weekend.”

Wyndham Clark (+1000)

While I am concerned Scheffler might not have enough mongrel in his make up when things are tight, I have no such concerns for Clark. The U.S. Open champion is on the way to proving himself a killer after the early part of his career showed anything but. But with a mental focus now homed in and the chip on his shoulder we saw him take down more established stars at the Wells Fargo Championship last year before taking it all at Los Angeles Country Club.

This play is one of mentality not stats because Clark is losing strokes on Approach (-0.795) and he will need to lift that. He is killing it on the greens though, ranked second in SG: Putting (+4.069). He also admits he was not a fan of this track prior to last year. Call it a gut feel, rather than a data play.

Will Zalatoris (+1100)

Hiding behind the leaders is Zalatoris. He ranks second off the tee, 10th on approach and a respectable 30th in Putting. Like Matsuyama, his effort at The Riviera Country Club (runner-up) give hope the worst of his injury issues are over. A Wake Forest product, Zalatoris knows this track better than most, and he’s just nicely hidden outside the lead pack to make a run. Before he was hurt, Zalatoris was making a habit of being in the mix on hard tracks and it might be set to continue now.

FADES

Scottie Scheffler (+225)

Scheffler SHOULD win this tournament from this spot. And if he does, I’ll have plenty of egg on my face and have to listen to constant chirping from my colleague Matt DelVecchio. The Texan is clearly the best striker of the ball in the world at the moment. This week he is third off the tee, second around the green and seventh on approach. He is a former winner…

But given he is 51st of 69 players in Putting, I am not prepared to get on at short odds. With a packed leaderboard any mistake will be magnified. Scheffler needs to continue to chip things in, or hit approach shots to tap in, more often than he misses inside 10-feet. He’s missed five putts inside 10 feet through two rounds, chances are he will miss five more on the weekend.

Remember, he was on fire at the WM Phoenix Open also. He hit the lead on Sunday. A finisher wins from there. He instead three-putted a par-5 green from inside 20-feet and reversed course.

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