Draws & Fades: Will Zalatoris an intriguing in-play option amid crowded Bay Hill leaderboard

ORLANDO, Fla. – If you’re looking to find the winner of the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, prepare to scroll.

It’s a rare instance where the top of the odds board at a PGA TOUR event gets higher after one round than it looked pre-tournament. But that’s the situation after the opener at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, where Scottie Scheffler was a +650 favorite on Wednesday at BetMGM and retains the pole position – albeit now priced at +800.

A crowded leaderboard has translated into a bunched-up odds board, with the top six players priced between +800 and +1600. It’s a group that includes leader Shane Lowry as well as Scheffler and Jordan Spieth who both trail by four and three shots, respectively.

Updated odds to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (via BetMGM)

• +800: Scottie Scheffler (-2)
• +1100: Shane Lowry (-6)
• +1200: Hideki Matsuyama (-5), Sam Burns (-4)
• +1400: Jordan Spieth (-3)
• +1600: Justin Thomas (-3)
• +2000: Sahith Theegala (-4), Will Zalatoris (-3)
• +2200: Min Woo Lee (-3), Russell Henley (-4), Collin Morikawa (-2)
• +2500: Rory McIlroy (+1), Viktor Hovland (-1)

But just as the opening markets offered options beyond just Scheffler and Rory McIlroy as the early favorites, so too the updated board extends beyond Scheffler and Lowry, who’s looking to build upon last week’s T4 finish at PGA National.

Here’s a look at the players I’m looking to back heading into Round 2, as well as a pair of major champions who I believe are priced too short:

Draws

Will Zalatoris (+2000)

I’m intrigued. Zalatoris brought a few question marks into 2024, as he continued the long road back from a lengthy injury absence. But he flashed considerable form at Riviera, where he finished runner-up, and now he’s once again in the mix at a Signature Event after opening with a 3-under 69.

Zalatoris was solid across the board on Thursday, picking up strokes on the field with both his ball-striking and putting while overcoming a pair of early bogeys. I believe the back-nine turnaround could kick him into gear for the second round, which he’ll begin three shots behind Lowry. With several of the pre-tournament favorites now below him on the odds board, this could be a great opportunity to back someone with the pedigree to top an elite field like the one assembled this week.

Chris Kirk (+3300)

There are several players in this week’s field that fit the “horse for course” mold, but Kirk certainly qualifies. With five top-15 finishes in his last seven trips to Bay Hill, the veteran is clearly comfortable around these parts. A sloppy bogey on the par-5 16th was the only thing that kept him from a bogey-free round on Thursday, as he hit 12 of 14 fairways and rolled in 102 feet of putts.

Kirk got back into the winner’s circle in Hawaii to start the year, and while his results since then haven’t been especially flashy his game clearly aligns with the demands of Bay Hill. He’s comfortable in this part of the country and this type of grass, as a Georgia native who won on the Korn Ferry Tour just up the road in Ponte Vedra Beach four years ago in addition to his victory at PGA National last year.

Fades

Scottie Scheffler (+800)

I’m not backing the world No. 1 until he shows me that he can putt. It’s pretty much that simple. Scheffler continues to tinker on the greens, this week putting a new mallet putter in his bag. The results were pretty much the same in his opening-round 69: first in SG: Off-the-Tee, fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green, 55th out of 69 in SG: Putting.

Shortly after signing his card, Scheffler was back on the Bay Hill putting green grinding over short putts and looking for answers. It’s clearly become a point of frustration for the world No. 1, who continues to outpace elite fields with his ball-striking while the putter holds him back.

He’s talented enough to flip the script at a moment’s notice, but I’ve given up trying to pinpoint exactly when that will happen. I didn’t like Scheffler at his pre-tournament price, and I still don’t like him even a touch higher given his issues on the greens.

Hideki Matsuyama (+1200)

The old adage “beware the injured golfer” doesn’t exactly apply to Matsuyama, who has a penchant for flashing injury and still turning in a low score. Case in point Thursday’s opener in Orlando, where he appeared to struggle with his back during warm-ups but still shot a 67 that left him one off the lead. After the round, though, he confirmed that there was an issue.

“My back was not feeling perfect,” Matsuyama said. “I was kind of hitting, kind of protecting myself, but I feel like I was able to keep the momentum from the previous tournament, so I think that really helped.”

That previous tournament was the Genesis Invitational, where he torched Riviera for a final-round 62 en route to victory. There’s no shortage of talent in the former Masters champ, but at +1200 I’m looking elsewhere given he might be a poorly-executed stretch away from an injury that could impact him more directly. It feels like he made more out of his opener than expected, including a double-chip on No. 16 where he was not penalized, and I’m not expecting those returns to continue.

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