Adam Scott and Scottie Scheffler ride quick turnaround momentum

When it comes to a birdie barrage course like TPC River Highlands, we are not really surprised when someone – or many – go low. It started with New England’s own Keegan Bradley shooting 62 on Thursday before the afternoon wave came hunting.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler played within himself on the way to a 63 while Denny McCarthy stole the first-round lead with a sublime 60. Australian Adam Scott threatened sub-60 himself before a late double bogey left him tied for second with Bradley at eight under.

The forecast calls for calm conditions on Friday morning before the chance of rain and a little light breeze in the afternoon, leading us to lean toward those players who finished late Thursday.

I won’t go hard on him below but McCarthy is one to watch going forward who I believe can win, but who also should get higher live odds throughout the last 54 holes.

In the opening round, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green has been a clear indicator for success with 12 of the top 15 players on the leaderboard ranked inside the top 25 of the stat (All 15 inside the top 47).

What else do we need to keep an eye on? How do we judge course comfort for example? Let’s take former champions Kevin Streelman and Chez Reavie as examples. Reavie put up a lovely 64. Streelman was a little erratic but still posted 65.

When it comes to season Tee-to-Green stats, Reavie has struggled, ranking 140th. He was 14th on Thursday, which normally would be a reason to fade as we look for a return to the norm. Streelman ranked seventh Tee-to-Green Thursday but is 88th on the season. Do we stick to those fade feelings or weigh the fact they’ve both got a Travelers trophy at home?

Here are the latest odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

+250: Scottie Scheffler (-7, 4th)

+500: Denny McCarthy (10, 1st)

+900: Patrick Cantlay (-5, T8)

+1200: Adam Scott (-8, T2)

+1200: Keegan Bradley (-8, T2)

+2000: Jon Rahm (-3, T28)

+2200: Shane Lowry (-6, T5)

+2800: Sungjae Im (-5, T8)

+3000: Viktor Hovland (-3, T28)

+3300: Rory McIlroy (-2, T46)

+4500: Xander Schauffele (-2, T46)

Here’s who I like the look of going forward.

DRAWS

SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER (+250 to win)

You simply cannot love these odds with 54 holes to go but by the same token you simply cannot discount the world No. 1 when he’s just three off the pace and could have easily scored better! Scheffler ranked third on the round in SG: Tee to Green despite giving up strokes to the average Off-the-Tee. He made up for it by leading the field in Approach and while he missed some certifiably makeable shorter putts, he still gained over a shot on the field on the greens to rank 43rd in the metric. With the morning tee time Friday, don’t be surprised to see Scheffler go deep.

ADAM SCOTT (+1200 to win)

The Australian was bitterly disappointed with his missed cut at the U.S. Open but it has served him well as he entered the Travelers fresh and with a chip on his shoulder to return to the play he’d been trending toward. Scott has three top 10s in his last five starts on TOUR and was impressive on his way to ranking 10th in SG: Tee to Green and leading the way in SG: Off the Tee. His biggest efforts came on the greens where he ranked fourth in SG: Putting. Now before you all use that as a reason to run from the Aussie, think real stats, not imagined from former prejudice. Scott has gained strokes on the field on the greens in seven of his last eight TOUR starts and on the other occasion it was a fractional loss. With just one major error costing him two shots, Scott’s 62 could’ve been much lower. He has the morning to make amends.

KEVIN YU (+450 for a Top 10)

I warned avid preview readers about Yu’s return to the TOUR after knee surgery, tipping you into a +220 top 40 play and the rookie promptly opened with a clever, and yet still rusty, 65. If you missed the boat pre-tournament, consider a look at a Top 10 from here at +450. Yu ranks fourth in SG: Off-the-Tee, ninth in SG: Tee-to-Green, second in GIR and a reasonable 41st in driving accuracy this season, and he also ranks second in accuracy from 150-175 yards. The former top ranked amateur’s last start was back at Pebble Beach… but it was also a Top 10.

FADES

KEEGAN BRADLEY (+1200 to win)

This is a tough fade because you can argue no one wants this more than New England’s Bradley. But it is that fact and the reality that he plays Friday afternoon that has me worried for the former major winner. Bradley was outstanding in ranking second on Approach and Tee-to-Green on Thursday, but when he next takes to the course there is a big chance he will be facing a healthy deficit to the leaders. With the added internal pressure, he could fall into the trap of pushing a little too hard for birdies. This is the reason I don’t love his +1200 number while still liking the same for Adam Scott. The good news for Bradley fans is if he can maintain his play and stay within striking distance for the weekend, you might see slightly healthier chasing odds to nibble at.

CHEZ REAVIE / KEVIN STREELMAN

As mentioned above, my initial thoughts and gut instinct is we’ve seen the course comfort affect in the opening round, and with an afternoon tee time and a likely regression backward on Tee-to-Green numbers, the thought of a second title seems remote to me.