State Their Case: Keegan Bradley, Chez Reavie or history beckons at Travelers Championship

First things first – it appears as if I owe somewhat of an apology to Keegan Bradley and Chez Reavie after placing them in the fades section of my Draws & Fades column after the opening round of the Travelers Championship!

Local favorite Bradley has embraced the challenge of winning at home and is running with it. The New Englander sits at 21 under through 54 holes and somewhat in control of this tournament given his one-shot lead.

Reavie, the man who beat out Bradley in 2019 for the title, has outpaced his season stats this week as course familiarity and comfort trumps all for the plucky contender. An impressive final hole birdie ensured he pulled a shot closer to Bradley prior to Sunday’s shootout at 20 under.

With the next contender in Patrick Cantlay back at 16 under for the week, the final pairing at TPC River Highlands has their destiny in their hands. Even if we consider another 10-under 60 like that from Rickie Fowler on Saturday, the cushion from the lead duo makes it a tough chase.

Cantlay sits third after a 61, Fowler’s 60 helps him share fourth with Adam Scott and Denny McCarthy. Spotting a five-shot lead to Bradley means they just have to go low. But it’s not insurmountable. Marc Leishman started six back, shot 62, and won without the need for a playoff in 2012.

The biggest factor for Bradley and Reavie may well be both players performance on the greens. Reavie leads the field in Strokes Gained: Putting this week with Bradley not far behind him in third. They rank 43rd and 109th in the metric over the season!

Bradley also has the distinction of leading the field in SG: Approach while sitting second in SG: Tee to Green. In short – he’s firing on all cylinders in front of his home fans.

Here are the latest odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

-135: Keegan Bradley (-21, 1st)

+250: Chez Reavie (-20, 2nd)

+800: Patrick Cantlay (-16, 3rd)

+3000: Scottie Scheffler (-14, T7)

+3300: Rickie Fowler (-15, T4)

+4000: Denny McCarthy (-15, T4)

+4000: Adam Scott (-15, T4)

+6600: Justin Thomas (-14, T7)

+8000: Min Woo Lee (-14, T7)

Before you make your final betting moves, here are the reasons why the contenders can win the Travelers Championship – and also why they may not.

KEEGAN BRADLEY, -21, 1st (-135 to win)

Case For: This has been Bradley at his best, playing brilliantly across the board. Leading the field in SG: Approach (+6.624), third in SG: Putting (+6.448) while also being 20th in SG: Around the Green and 21st in SG: Off the Tee. With the lead and a gap on most of his contenders, Bradley knows a 65 on Sunday basically ensures only Reavie can beat him, and he’s been better than that each of the first three rounds (62-63-64). Oh, and he’s a proven five-time PGA TOUR winner.

“This is about as good as I've ever played. This week. I would say,” Bradley says. “But I've been playing great all year. Actually, been playing good the last couple months. Just had one bad round in there. Almost every tournament the past month I've had one really, really solid round.

“I had my coach come in, Darren May, and we had a great three days… Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and swing feels really good and the putter feels good.”

Case Against: The pressure of winning at home in front of friends and family is real. And Bradley himself knows it’s been part of his narrative before. He will need to block some of that out at critical points on Sunday.

“I've wanted to win this tournament forever, so the feeling of wanting to push and win is something I need to fight against and just let myself go out and play,” Bradley admits. “I'm sort of an anxious person, so I know I'm going to be fighting a lot of thoughts. Winning this tournament with my family here, what an incredible thing that would be. I'm going to have to do my best to really stay where I'm at. I know I'm going to play my hardest no matter if I'm five up or five back.”

CHEZ REAVIE, -20, 2nd (+250 to win)

Case For: Reavie might be giving up distance to most players on TOUR but he’s already proven he can win at TPC River Highlands, outlasting of all people, Keegan Bradley in 2019. Leading the field this week in SG: Putting (+9.091) while sitting nicely at 10th in SG: Approach and inside the top 30 Off-the-Tee and Around the Green. Just two bogeys on the week and sits -12 on the par 4s.

“It's going to be a shootout. We're one shot apart, and I'm not going to be able to go out there and just make some pars and kind of hang in there. I'm going to have to go make some birdies,” Reavie said.

Case Against: The crowd will lean towards Bradley and/or fireworks from behind by big names. This means Reavie has to rely heavily on his own drive and momentum. And while it hasn’t been an issue to this point, will ranking 63rd in driving distance finally catch up?

“I would expect the fans to root for the hometown guy. They did it in 2019 when Keegan and I played,” Reavie adds. “Then they were great to me, too. When I hit good shots, they would clap and applaud me as well. So, they're great fans. Obviously, they are going to root for the hometown guy, and hopefully I'll be right there with him.”

PATRICK CANTLAY, -16, 3rd (+800 to win)

Case For: Cantlay arguably has a better skillset than the two leaders and now has a 60 and 61 to his name on TPC River Highlands in his career. Sixth in SG: Around the Green, seventh on Approach, and 18th in Putting are reasonable numbers but they also allow improvement. The former FedExCup champion has nothing to lose and can get aggressive in his chase.

“When you're playing from the fairway and you have a wedge it's time to hit it close, and other times you got to play to the fat side around this place,” Cantlay says. “Today when the golf course is this soft there are just so many opportunities that you got to try on almost every hole to make a birdie.”

Case Against: The five-shot cushion is a tough one to overcome without help from the two at the top. Birdies are certainly achievable at TPC River Highlands but they can be harder to find when you absolutely need them.

WILDCARDS: THE CHASERS

RICKIE FOWLER, -15, T4 (+3300 to win)

ADAM SCOTT, -15, T4 (+4000 to win)

DENNY McCARTHY, -15 T4 (+4000 to win)

SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER, -14, T7 (+3000 to win)

JUSTIN THOMAS, -14, T7 (+6600 to win)

Case For: Just look at this quintet of stars who are putting their head on the pillow thinking… you never know. Three of them major winners, four of them PLAYERS champions, and the other – McCarthy, proved the leaders can sometimes find the birdies dry up when the blowtorch is applied with his Saturday 70. Fowler was a foot away from a 59, Thomas has shot 59 before, and Scheffler has had a knack of being amongst the contenders as the final few holes approach. If you want a lottery ticket, here’s your chance. Scheffler was 100/1 before the final round at the Memorial Tournament and missed the playoff by a shot!

Case Against: If Bradley and/or Reavie play well…, the chasers are unable to control the narrative. As dynamite as they are, they can’t birdie every hole. Seven shot deficits on the PGA TOUR are very rare, although we have seen 11 of eight or more over history!