Tommy time: Tommy Fleetwood and Tom Kim trending ahead of Travelers Championship

Buckle up, it’s time to chase birdies.

And there’s nothing like a slew of birdies to get over the disappointment of a tough few days at the office for PGA TOUR stars coming off the U.S. Open.

With Los Angeles Country Club in the rearview mirror and Wyndham Clark rightfully celebrating his second giant-killing effort of the season, we now turn to the Travelers Championship where players know they’ll need to notch up the par breakers if they want a big payday.

Once again, we find ourselves asking the question following a major… how much do we value momentum versus potential fatigue? If a player contended heavily in Los Angeles, are they at an advantage, or disadvantage at TPC River Highlands.

Do we look at Scottie Scheffler’s third place finish last week as more proof he’s going to continue his incredible consistency this season or are we worried about the physical and mental toll? He opens the +600 favorite with BetMGM.

What about defending champion Xander Schauffele? He set a U.S. Open record with a 62, but come Sunday he started poorly and never recovered, seemingly losing his accuracy off the tee all together. Can we trust a return to a scene of success will help wipe away the hurt of his collapse? He’s sitting at +1400 to repeat.

Or should we look to find the next Wyndham Clark? A player who doesn’t sit high on the betting boards but who is playing good golf, a good course fit, and is ready to make a name for themselves. There are a few candidates here.

Given the winners post majors so far have been Matt Fitzpatrick (+2800 at RBC Heritage) and Emiliano Grillo (+6600 at the Charles Schwab Challenge) I’m going to steer clear of the very top of the boards and try to find similar value.

Let’s go find them.

OUTRIGHT

It’s Tommy time. Tommy Fleetwood (+2800) has recaptured his best form of late and I’m aboard. The Englishman had his chance to break his PGA TOUR drought two weeks ago at the RBC Canadian Open only to fall to local hero Nick Taylor in a playoff. He’s followed it up by closing the U.S. Open with a 63 to climb to a tasty T5 finish. Cleary he’s in form.

Fleetwood has only played at TPC River Highlands twice but was T13 in 2019. The course demands a very high percentage of approach shots from 150-175 yards and Fleetwood ranks 15th on the PGA TOUR in Birdie or Better percentage from this distance.

Another player who returned to form at the U.S. Open was Tom Kim (+3500). His T8 at LACC came off the back of two missed cuts and despite winning in Las Vegas last fall, he’s been sliding down the FedExCup list gradually ever since. At fourth on TOUR in driving accuracy, and eighth on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Approach – this should be the perfect venue for Kim even though he’s yet to play it. He’s already tightened from 45/1.

TOP 5

Sahith Theegala (+1200 for a top 5, +5000 to win) went desperately close to winning the Travelers Championship a year ago and I’m feeling he can once again contend. If not for a late double bogey on 18, when he had the lead, he could be returning as the champion. And this will certainly help light the fire in his belly.

Theegala also ranks a healthy 19th on TOUR in Birdie or Better percentage from 150-175 yards and in fact is eighth on TOUR in birdie average, showing he can notch them up at places where they can be plentiful. While his driving accuracy is not a strength, Theegala is 21st on TOUR when it comes to approaches from 150-175 yards that come from the rough. He is also an impressive 27th on TOUR in SG: Putting.

TOP 10
Harris English (+550 for a top 10, +5500 to win) is becoming a regular contender again and while he’s not winning, he’s certainly threatening. The 2021 Travelers Championship winner has three top 12s in his last five tournaments including a T8 last week at the U.S. Open. He was also T2 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard and T3 at the Wells Fargo Championship – both designated events. Ranks 14th this season in SG: Putting.

TOP 20

Usually I like to push for some value in this slot but I’m going to throw up some chalk in Collin Morikawa (+100 to top 20, +2500 to win) and Denny McCarthy (+220 to top 20, +8000 to win). Morikawa was a fade for me at the U.S. Open based on his back issues suffered at the Memorial Tournament recently but he convinced me I should stay on his good side after a plucky fightback to T14 last week when he was trending towards a missed cut.
Morikawa also ranks fourth on TOUR for Birdie or Better percentage from 150-175 yards and second on TOUR in SG: Approach and fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green and driving accuracy. The reality is Morikawa has the perfect stat line to win here and if it wasn’t for the back issue, I’d probably advocate for across-the-board bets.

McCarthy is a putting genius and I wouldn’t be surprised if he putts the dots off it again this week. Ranks fourth in SG: Putting and is not far removed from his playoff loss at Muirfield Village against another healthy field. Ranks 16th on TOUR in scoring average, and seventh on TOUR in scrambling, so he can certainly go low.

TOP 40

This one is a data pick as he has no course history but Kevin Yu (+220 for a top 40, +20000 to win) represents a possible value pick given his season stats. Yu ranks fourth in SG: Off-the-Tee, ninth in SG: tee-to-Green, second in GIR and a reasonable 41st in driving accuracy. Yu also ranks second in accuracy from 150-175 yards. Why don’t you know his name? Well, he’s only played 10 times this season, and not since a T7 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Yu had surgery on torn meniscus in his knee but is now back. A former world No.1 amateur, Yu has talent to burn, and if his early season form holds up his odds won’t stay this high much longer.