Draws & Fades: McIlroy looks for FRL three-peat at Bay Hill

Looking to get in the action for the opening round at Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge?

One of the unique factors about betting in golf is it’s not just outright winners, or tournament placings you can wager on. In fact, there are countless options with varying waits on payouts over the four days of action.

Plenty of those options’ focus on Thursday’s opening round. Let’s take a dive into some of those.

FIRST ROUND LEADER

There is no better place for Rory McIlroy to announce that he shouldn’t be forgotten amongst Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler’s 2023 heroics than the opening round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard.

While Rahm has three wins in his last five starts and Bay Hill Club & Lodge’s defending champion Scheffler was also a recent winner at the WM Phoenix Open, McIlroy has been ho hum in his last two TOUR starts where his rivals triumphed – T32 in Phoenix, and T29 in Los Angeles.

But now he comes to Bay Hill and he shapes up as a decent option as the opening round leader, especially given his last three starts in the event.

McIlroy was indeed the first-round leader the last two years at Bay Hill. A year ago, he was top dog after an opening 7-under 65 and in 2021 he shared first round leader with Corey Conners after a 66. In 2020 McIlroy started with a 66 only to be pipped by Matt Every’s 65.

At +2000 with BetMGM Sportsbook (and +350 to be inside the top 5) this shapes as McIlroy’s chance to make a statement.

“Not that I don't enjoy the West Coast, but it's nice to be back on the East Coast and get back to some familiar greens,” McIlroy said Wednesday.

“I felt like I played pretty well from tee to green at Phoenix and L.A., but just really couldn't get anything going on the greens. So nice to get back to some familiar Bermuda over the next few weeks.”

But as always when diving into first round leader markets, be sure to look at the forecast. And in this case, with McIlroy out in the afternoon wave, it could give you slight pause. Currently the morning wave will face light winds from the south / southwest from three to 10 mph before it edges up to eight to 14 mph in the afternoon. The morning players will also get softer fairways and greens. (Friday’s forecast has winds from 18-23 mph with gusts of 28-33mph… but more on that in Draws & Fades Thursday!)

“The greens already have some firmness to them. Which is really good. I don't mind that at all. The rest of the golf course I would say is still sort of soft,” McIlroy said. “I think this year compared to previous years the fairways are just a touch softer than they have been leading into the tournament. Which leads me to believe that it might not be as penal. It will still be penal because the rough's thick but I just feel that good shots will hopefully get rewarded a little more.”

Here is a look at the best round one scoring averages this season, (and over their career at Bay Hill) for those in the field and what wave they play from on Thursday.

SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER AND JON RAHM SPECIALS

BetMGM Sportsbook is offering specials on the top two players in the field over the opening round. Scheffler is part of the morning wave, Rahm the afternoon. Here are a few options.

Bogey-Free: Scheffler +1200, Rahm +1100

Scheffler’s first round of 2020, his debut at Bay Hill, was a bogey-free 67. It is the only bogey-free round he has on the course from eight attempts.

Rahm has zero bogey-free rounds at Bay Hill. From his four rounds a year ago he had four, three, three and four bogeys each day.

To make an eagle: Scheffler +450; Rahm +450

Scheffler has five career eagles at Bay Hill from eight rounds. Rahm is yet to make an eagle at Bay Hill from four rounds.

To shoot 69 or lower: Scheffler -110; Rahm -120

Scheffler has two rounds of 69 or better from his eight rounds. His scoring average at Bay Hill is 71.75. His first-round scoring average is 68.50.

Rahm is yet to shoot 69 or better at Bay Hill. His best round was a second round 70 last year. His scoring average at Bay Hill is 72.50. His first-round scoring average is 72.00.

3 BALLS

Bettors can get action on all three balls in the tournament with BetMGM but one sparked my interest.

Byeong-Hun An (+225) over Sahith Theegala (+138) and Alex Noren (+175) at 7:16a.m.

The underdog in this matchup is hard to pass up when you look at An’s last four trips to Bay Hill. He opened with 68 (2018), 72 (2019), 71 (2020) and 68 (2021) and has a 69.23 first round scoring average this season.

Theegala missed the cut in his first trip to Bay Hill last year while Noren is coming off a pre-tournament WD last week and was bested head-to-head by An at Bay Hill in the opening rounds in 2018 (71), 2020 (73) and 2021 (72).

ROUND 1 MATCHUPS

DraftKings is offering 2 Ball markets over the first round. One underdog could be good value.

Adam Scott (+100) over Hideki Matsuyama (-120).

Scott and Matsuyama are good friends with similar games and while Matsuyama has made the cut in all eight of his trips to Bay Hill, his opening round scoring average is 71.50 with a range from 69 (2020) to 75 (2021).

Scott’s career first round scoring average at Bay Hill is 70.83 from 12 trips with a scintillating low of 62 (2014) and a high of 77 (2020).

ROUND SCORES

PointsBet has over / under action on Round One scores. Can one Floridian perform in front of home state fans?

Billy Horschel Under 72.5 +110

Fresh off opening The Honda Classic with a 65 before fading to T42, Horschel is at plus money to shoot under par in the opening round at Bay Hill. There is plenty working against him… he’s in the afternoon wave, his swing changes are clearly producing inconsistency… but the mere fact he’s being written off here would spark his competitive juices. Horschel’s career opening round scoring average at Bay Hill is 70.30 from 10 tries including a 67 a year ago. He’s only shot over par one time in 10 attempts to open the tournament.

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