Kurt Kitayama leads, but Scottie Scheffler favored at Bay Hill

It’s been a revolving door atop the odds list this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard.

Perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the strength of field assembled in Orlando and the demanding nature of Bay Hill Club & Lodge. Birdies are readily available, but errant shots more often than not lead to squares on the scorecard.

So while it seemed at first that world No. 1 Jon Rahm would make this the latest in his list of 2023 conquests, the landscape has shifted quite a bit since the opening round. A number of names have boasted outright betting favorite status over the last 36 holes, from Jordan Spieth to Xander Schauffele, Corey Conners, Viktor Hovland and others.

Now entering the final round, a dichotomy is clear: Kurt Kitayama leads for the second straight night, but another player leads the betting markets. The shortest number at BetMGM Sportsbook now belongs to Scottie Scheffler, who’s looking to go back-to-back (again) and will need to beat a few familiar faces from a year ago in order to do so.

With an exciting final round on tap at the Home of the King, let’s take a look at the cases for (and against) a few of the leaders, each eager to slip into the winner’s red cardigan:

Scottie Scheffler (-8, T-2, +225)

For: Scheffler showed just last month that he doesn’t like to hand back trophies. His first-ever title defense was a successful one, going back-to-back at the WM Phoenix Open. The reigning PGA TOUR Player of the Year was well adrift of the field during the third round, reaching +3500 in in-play markets, but he turned his round on a dime with five birdies in his last seven holes. He’s now just one shot back and knows what it takes to win this event – a result that would net one particular bettor a seven-figure payday.

Against: Scheffler’s currently trading at a high-water mark in the in-play markets. His birdie binge came at the exact right time, but he’ll need more of it in order to fend off a star-studded leaderboard (again). Scheffler leads the field in SG: Tee-to-Green this week, but his title defense could come down to his work on the greens. If the putter dries up he could have a tough time keeping pace with the pack around him. This is a really short number given the variables in play.

Viktor Hovland (-8, T-2, +350)

For: The Norwegian just keeps holing out. Each of his first three rounds have featured a lengthy hole-out, highlighted by his ace on No. 7 during the second round. Hovland was a runner-up here last year, is second behind Scheffler in SG: Tee-to-Green and is coming off a bogey-free 66 that vaulted him quickly into the mix. He’ll also have a spot in the final pairing, meaning he’ll keep Kitayama in his sights all day.

Against: Hovland’s Achilles’ Heel remains his work around the greens, and it has flared up again this week. He’s 69th in SG: Around the Green, losing -2.595 shots to the field despite shots like Saturday’s birdie hole-out from the bunker. He doesn’t miss a ton of greens, but if he’s leaning hard on his short game early in the round it could make for a long day.

Kurt Kitayama (-9, 1st, +600)

For: Take the guy that has led after each of the last two rounds, right? Easy. Kitayama got his bad play out of the way early in Round 3, going out in 39, before carding four back-nine birdies to re-take the lead. His birdie make on the final green was an exclamation point on the rally and gave him all the momentum he needed to move within reach of a breakthrough win.

Against: The odds are telling the story here, as Kitayama is solo leader but isn’t first (or second) among the betting markets. While it can be done (see Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Every, David Lingmerth and William McGirt, among others) it’s a tall task to get PGA TOUR win No. 1 at an elevated event. Kitayama will have some of the best players in the world chasing him down for the last 18 holes, and his margin for error is thin.

Rory McIlroy (-6, T-5, +650)

For: McIlroy hasn’t had his best stuff this week, but he has managed to claw his way back into contention. After staring down a potential missed cut on Friday, the Ulsterman is now within reach of the top spot and likely isn’t fretting about spotting Kitayama a three-pack of shots. Scheffler and Hovland will prove worthy challengers, but the 2018 winner has an affinity for this course that could lift him on the final day.

Against: This price is a little optimistic. Yes, McIlroy can get hot at a moment’s notice but the ball-striking hasn’t been up to his high standards over the first three rounds. He’ll need to capitalize over the first six holes in particular, or else he’ll face the difficult combo of a multi-shot deficit and multiple stars in his way.

Tyrrell Hatton (-7, 4th, +700)

For: Like Scheffler and McIlroy, Hatton knows his way around Bay Hill after a win in 2020 and a runner-up last year. He was bogey-free Saturday, closing with five birdies over his last eight holes, and has been stellar with the driver while ranking third in SG: Off the Tee. Another day of keeping himself in position could be just enough, especially if much of the attention goes toward bigger names around him on the leaderboard.

Against: Hatton got hot with the putter Saturday and is unlikely to replicate that performance. He led the field in SG: Putting, picking up a whopping 4.192 shots on the field. If the hole remains wider than the Atlantic he’ll have a great shot to get a second cardigan, but that’s asking a lot given he had lost strokes on the greens over the first 36 holes.

Wild Card: Justin Thomas (-5, T-7, +2000)

Thomas only made one birdie all day Saturday, and a bogey on the closing hole dropped him four shots off the pace. But he has leaned into the shot-shaping elements of Bay Hill all week long, and this could be a buy-low opportunity on a former world No. 1 who knows a thing or two about making a final-round comeback. Amid a crowded leaderboard on a relatively unpredictable course, this could be a chance to back a high-upside option.

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