Rahm & Co. face stern test (and stiff breeze) at Bay Hill

A huge two weeks of golf is ahead of us as we hit back-to-back elevated (and designated) events in the Florida swing, beginning with this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard.

The top three in the Official World Golf Rankings, already with five wins between them this season – Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy – headline a huge field chasing the red cardigan made famous by the late Arnold Palmer.

Rahm is the +650 betting favorite with BetMGM Sportsbook, with defending champion Scheffler next at +900 and the 2018 winner McIlroy third in line at +1000.

Scheffler survived and ultimately thrived in incredibly tough, hard and fast conditions at Bay Hill Club & Lodge a year ago. One question is will we get similar conditions this time around?

The last four editions at Bay Hill have seen winning scores as follows:

2019: Francesco Molinari -12

2020: Tyrrell Hatton -4

2021: Bryson DeChambeau -11

2022: Scottie Scheffler -5

Reports from on the ground suggest the rough is not as brutal as a year ago however winds of around 20mph are currently forecast for Friday’s second round. If that forecast comes to fruition, the greens will get harder and faster over the weekend once more.

So, while we might not get another pure survival week like a year ago, somewhere around 10 under for a winning total would not be a terrible best guess.

Which brings us back to the current top three. So far this season McIlroy won at THE CJ CUP in South Carolina at 17 under; Scheffler won the WM Phoenix Open at 19 under and Rahm collected the Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express at 27 under and the Genesis Invitational at 17 under.

Can they continue their red-hot form with a modified mindset of strategic aggression rather than all guns blazing?

The usual standard for a tough test in golf is the U.S. Open. Let’s visit their recent efforts there working backwards from 2022-2019. It shows they can adjust.

Rahm: T12-1-T23-T3

Scheffler: T2-T7-DNP-CUT

McIlroy: T5-T7-T8-T9 (Winner in 2011)

Rahm finished T17 a year ago in his first foray at Bay Hill but says the education gained has him in good stead to chase what would be a fourth TOUR win in his last six starts. Of the current big three, he’s the only one not to have a win at Bay Hill, but it’s the eight wins at the venue by Tiger Woods that has Rahm confident.

“Last year was extremely difficult conditions. I learned why Tiger has had such success here. It's a ball-striker's golf course. We need to be very accurate with the irons, and obviously, like everywhere else, you have to be good on the greens,” Rahm said Tuesday ahead of just his second tilt at this tournament.

It sounds like a basic comment that could be true every week on TOUR but the reality is of the last eight winners at Bay Hill, six of them were inside the top 21 in the field in BOTH Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Putting for the week. They needed to hit it close and take advantage.

Are there any players in the field this week ranked inside the top 21 in both metrics this season?

Jon Rahm: 5th SG: Approach / 8th SG: Putting (+650 odds to win)

Max Homa: 15th SG: Approach / 5th SG: Putting (+1800 odds to win)

Sam Ryder: 18th SG: Approach / 6th SG: Putting (+15000 odds to win)

Almost…

Tony Finau: 6th SG: Approach / 24th SG: Putting (+2200 odds to win)

Jason Day: 21st SG: Approach / 26th SG: Putting (+3300 odds to win)

The Spanish superstar continued to speak to the strategy he believes brings success at Palmer’s place.

“It is a golf course where I could tell Tiger could manage his way around. For the most part, you want to miss right off the tee because that's always going to give you the better chance going into the greens. A lot of the hazards are on left, so seeing that it made sense,” Rahm added.

“I see a lot of similarities on the courses that Tiger did well at, and luckily, I've been able to do well on most of them. So, I learned that this could be a golf course for me. Last year I had a horrible, horrible week on the greens with four three-putts alone on the back nine on Sunday. So very encouraged knowing that if I could keep my ball striking at the level that I know I can and have a decent week on the greens, I'll have a chance.”

If missing left is a problem… are there any big players who miss more often on this side?

Two that stand out are Will Zalatoris (+2200) and Xander Schauffele (+2000). Zalatoris ranks 202nd on TOUR this season in limited starts, finding the left rough off the tee 19.62% of the time. Schauffele is 201st at 19.49%.

Now I’ll leave you with one more critical metric for the week. Over the last eight editions of the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard there has been a significant increase to the TOUR average on approach shots from 200-225 yards. On average over the eight seasons about 18.5% of all approach shots for the week come from this distance. In context, if a player plays a round in even-par 72, on average more than 13 of their shots will come from this range.

Which players have been the deadliest, in terms of scoring, from this 200-225 range in this field?

The bottom line is this. Rahm, McIlroy and Scheffler are the top three for a reason and all have legitimate chances to add to their winners tally this week. Despite an instinct to trust in Scheffler, his early / late side of the draw could find itself hurt by stronger winds and if my feet are held to the fire, I’m leaning towards Rahm out of the three.

McIlroy has shown a propensity to fast starts at Bay Hill so consider him an option for first round leader (check out Draws & Fades on Wednesday for more on this) but I need more convincing from the FedExCup champion that he’s nearing his peak.

If you are looking for someone outside of the big three, there are a few other names you can look to. Day and Hovland look great but need to survive the winds and while he’s not in California, don’t sleep on Max Homa.

Good luck with all your picks!