Five betting takeaways from a wild U.S. Open at Pinehurst

PINEHURST, N.C. – It was a wild week at Pinehurst No. 2 for the 2024 U.S. Open, where Bryson DeChambeau saved par on the 72nd hole to edge Rory McIlroy for his second major title. From steamy temperatures to crispy greens and back-nine drama, this year’s tournament was compelling from start to finish.

But with this one in the rearview mirror – and with The Open at Royal Troon now less than four weeks away – let’s look back through a betting lens to find the biggest takeaways and lessons learned that can be applied in search of future profit.

1. Bryson DeChambeau has found the balance between power and finesse and is a force in the majors.

When DeChambeau won the U.S. Open in 2020 at Winged Foot he did it with brute force. He just smashed the ball off the tee and went looking for it wherever it went, ultimately winning by six shots. This week at Pinehurst, DeChambeau became an even scarier major prospect. He showed glimpses at the PGA Championship last month in Valhalla, combining finesse with his force, to be runner-up. This week he picked his moments to load up, and when to pull back. No doubt he had some luck with a few wayward drives, but you make your own luck when you exude confidence. He did that.

At the end of the week the champion was third in SG: Tee-to-Green, fourth in SG: Off-the-Tee, 10th in SG: Around-the-Green, 12th in SG: Putting and 13th in SG: Approach. A very well-rounded effort. Not sure I’ll be taking the +1100 offered at BetMGM Sportsbook for The Open Championship, but he will be a factor at the PGA and U.S. Opens for years to come.

2. Rory McIlroy may now never win another major.

I hate to say it, but the way he let this one slip might be the final nail in the coffin for the four-time major winner. McIlroy had a two-shot lead briefly on the back nine and stood on the 15th tee at 8-under when 6-under would eventually win the tournament. But a mis-club on 15, along with missed short putts on Nos. 16 and 18, ultimately killed off his hopes and left him as the U.S. Open runner-up by a shot for the second straight year.

It clearly hurt the Northern Irishman, who left the scene quickly afterwards without stopping to talk to media. I for one wouldn’t be touching the +750 to win The Open at Troon, even though McIlroy fans will point to his 2011 Masters meltdown – which was followed up by a dominant U.S. Open win at Congressional in the very next major contested. But this result will undoubtedly leave some significant scar tissue for the 35-year-old. You won’t see me backing McIlroy at anything under +2000 in majors from now on.

3. Xander Schauffele’s consistency is worth noting, as he quietly has top 10s in all three majors.

Schauffele was eighth at the Masters, won the PGA Championship, and was T7 this week at Pinehurst. Only DeChambeau, who was T6 at the Masters and second at the PGA, has also been as consistent across the majors. Astute readers would have seen my suggestion prior to the Masters to get on Schauffele to win a major this season at +550 (already cashed) AND to consider the +800 to finish in the top 20 of all four majors. I’m feeling quietly confident this one has a chance to cash also, so I hope you jumped on. Look for Schauffele at +1400 to be a serious contender at Troon, as he showed no signs of a hangover this week following his major breakthrough while carding three of four rounds at par or better.

4. Ludvig Åberg will take very valuable lessons out of Pinehurst and appears a major winner in waiting.

It wasn’t the weekend the Swede wanted, going 73-73 to drop from up top to a T12 finish, but in time he will get valuable intel out of his first U.S. Open performance. Åberg was left to rue a triple bogey on Saturday and another early Sunday, coming from perhaps the inexperience of youth in just his third major start. But given he has a runner-up and T12 from those three majors, you get the feeling he has a major win in his future – and it could be sooner than later. At +1600 for The Open Championship he becomes an intriguing consideration. It will be his debut Open though, finally completing his set if major starts. I would prefer a little better price, but I will not be surprised to see his name on the leaderboard in a month’s time in Scotland.

5. Collin Morikawa has to be on your Royal Troon radar.

One player who I absolutely suggest you consider already for your Open Championship card is Morikawa. The former Open champion is +1600 and may have been forgotten this week despite a fighting T14 finish. Only a second-round 74 ultimately put him out of the contest, but his Saturday 66 showed his tenacity and reminded me that while I picked him this week. I previously had earmarked him for Troon until his great PGA Championship and Memorial efforts forced me to move up my prognostications. He was T3 at the Masters, T4 at the PGA and T12 here this week. Pretty decent major form, if you ask me.