How to find (and bet) the inevitable U.S. Open outlier

PINEHURST, N.C. – Without fail the U.S. Open throws up players many sports fans have never (or barely) heard of. Even golf fans find themselves asking, “who’s that guy?” at some point during the championship.

One of the beautiful things about the event is that it is in fact, “open” to anyone good enough to qualify.

And so for every Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele or Jordan Spieth there is a Grant Forrest, Brendan Valdez or Wells Williams.

Usually a few of these diamonds in the rough, or outliers, have a habit of putting themselves in contention early in the tournament before inevitable fading under the intense pressure and scrutiny of the moment. But it happens so frequently that surely there is value out in the betting markets on finding just who it might be this week at Pinehurst No. 2.

If we travel back to 2014 when the event was last at this venue and check the leaderboard after the opening round, we see behind Martin Kaymer was Fran Quinn, a journeyman and winner on the Korn Ferry Tour who got through local and final qualifying to be at Pinehurst.

At the end of the week, in a tie for second, was Erik Compton. Another surprise story. Neither player was even on the radar of the sportsbooks back then, instead being lumped amongst the “rest of the field” bet.

In every U.S. Open since, someone similar has popped.

A year ago Paul Barjon and Sam Bennett were inside the top 10 after the first round. In 2022 M.J. Daffue and Callum Tarren were all part of a tie for second through 18 holes.

In 2021 Rikuya Hoshino was T5 after 18 holes and veteran Richard Bland was tied first after 36 holes. At the end of the week Guido Migliozzi was T4.

What about a very young Schauffele at the 2017 U.S. Open, sitting T2 through 18 holes and T5 at the end at Erin Hills? Or the year prior, when Andrew Landry was a fixture atop or near the top through the first three rounds at Oakmont and a young amateur named Scheffler was T4 through 18 holes.

The point is, we can expect another outlier this week. So who could it be and how do you potentially cash in?

For a start, BetMGM Sportsbook not only has First Round Leader as a market, but it also has first-round Top 5 and first-round Top 10.

While Scheffler, Collin Morikawa and Schauffele are the top three in Round 1 Scoring Average on the PGA TOUR this season, a few other names on this ranking pop out: Alex Noren is fourth, Rico Hoey is eighth and Aaron Rai is 13th.

Noren is a veteran with multiple DP World Tour wins and is in great form this season but is still +700 to be inside the top 10 through 18 holes. Rai is +1000 for the top 10 through 18 holes and Hoey is a massive +2200 to be there after Thursday’s opening round. Hoey has the benefit of seeing the course as pure as it comes, playing in the opening group of the tournament.

Our Korn Ferry Tour insiders also tell us to watch out for Frankie Capan III, a second-year KFT player, with tremendous firepower. He found some headlines shooting 58 earlier this season and is +1600 to be inside the top 10 through 18 holes.

When it comes to all four rounds, not many players outside of Scheffler have been as hot as Harry Higgs lately. The former TOUR fan favorite has been blitzing it on KFT of late, winning back-to-back events in late May before getting through U.S. Open qualifying. He is +800 for a Top 20 this week and +2000 for a Top 10.

We know Driving Accuracy will be a key factor this week, and Rai ranks eighth on TOUR. J.T. Poston is ninth. Rai is +1000 for an end-of-week Top 10, Poston +1200.

Scrambling is another key stat. Noren is third on TOUR. Greyson Sigg ranks ninth on TOUR. He’s +2500 for a Top 10 this week.

If taking the plunge on a place market still scares you for the lesser-known players, look into head-to-head matchups. Hoey, for example, is the outsider in his first round 3-ball. At +225, he could be value against Tom McKibbin (+130) and former star Matteo Manassero (+188).

Remember Hoshino from above? He’s +333 against Dean Burmester (+100) and Seamus Power (+175) in the opening round. Capan is +165 to best Luke Clanton (+110) and Andrew Svoboda (+320).

Look around, find the right markets and take a stab at picking the next diamond in the rough.