Jun 12, 2024

Prop Farm: Price doesn't matter when it comes to Scottie Scheffler

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Written by Brady Kannon

Reminiscing with Hall of Fame Las Vegas bookmaker, Jay Kornegay, earlier this week, we were recalling the days of Tiger Woods being +100 to win a major championship. Personally, I remember +200 and I believe it was for one of The Open Championships. Kornegay seemed to recall Woods being at Even Money (+100) for one of the four majors, somewhere around 2002, as he remembers speaking on it to colleagues and to the media about it being unprecedented territory.

Scottie Scheffler is approaching that neighborhood. Currently at BetMGM Sportsbooks, Scheffler is at +300 to win the 124th United States Open at Pinehurst No. 2, beginning on Thursday in North Carolina.

Personally, I got in on Scheffler at +450 not long after the PGA Championship and I have since added plays on him to win this week at +400. I believe that is a fair price. When we approach +300, and even lower in some spots, it is probably too low. In sports betting - or any investment or when making any purchase in everyday life - we never want to pay too much, but is this something different?

"I keep saying, time after time this season, that the price on Scheffler to win is so prohibitive but it doesn’t stop people from betting him," said Thomas Gable, director of race and sports at The Borgata in New Jersey.

"Last week at the Memorial, he had highest handle and the highest ticket count of any player in the field. Same thing this week for the U.S. Open. Just being in a +300 range for a major is incredible. It gives off Tiger in his prime-type vibes. But it doesn’t seem to matter the price, everyone is taking a piece of Scheffler," Gable went on to explain.

I have heard many analogies regarding the Scheffler phenomenon. Matt Youmans of VSiN related it to betting against Patrick Mahomes in the NFL. "If you don't bet on him, you'll probably regret it come Sunday afternoon," said Youmans.

"I'm tired of losing to Scheffler," Youmans added. The +300 odds are no bargain but it's better than laying -150 over the weekend."

A while back, I said it was a beautiful opportunity we have been gifted in the sports betting world. It is like betting on Floyd Mayweather in boxing. Scheffler doesn't lose. Continuing in the boxing motif, I equated it to Mike Tyson in his prime - and I am not yet seeing a Buster Douglas.

"100%," VSiN's Gill Alexander concurred. "If I recall, I said to you two years ago, we should be betting on him every tournament. He's built differently. It took some time to manifest, but here we are."


How U.S. Open course conditions will affect betting on the favorites
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      How U.S. Open course conditions will affect betting on the favorites




      Scheffler has won five times in his last eight starts. Included in those five victories are THE PLAYERS Championship and the Masters. He seems to save his very best for the biggest events. The other three of the five wins were at Signature Events. A win here this week would be Scheffler's third major championship at just 27 years old. With Scheffler it seems, the more difficult the test, the better are his chances of beating everyone else.

      I found it quite telling of Scheffler's dominance, that we are now seeing sportsbooks offer markets "Without Scheffler," meaning "who will finish second?" This truly is unprecedented as the Woods prices to win major championships were only available in Las Vegas, long before the legalization of sports betting nationwide.

      "I think it’s important to offer a market like this where we eliminate Scheffler from the equation," said Gable. "If everyone else is actually playing for second, well here is the opportunity to get a price on someone else minus Scheffler from the field."

      Rory McIlroy at +1000 has been a popular play as has Brooks Koepka at +1800. Viktor Hovland at +1600 has the most tickets written on him though out of anyone in this Scheffler-less market. Koepka is our biggest liability with Bryson DeChambeau next at +1600."

      Senior data analyst at BetMGM, Drew O'Dell, spoke to me about some of the numbers in the "Without Scheffler" markets.

      "Collin Morikawa leads in ticket count percentage at 15.2%, handle at 21%, and is our biggest liability in this market," said O'Dell. "DeChambeau and Koepka are second and third in each category."

      Golf betting analyst at SportsGrid, Cam Stewart, expressed his dilemma. "It's tough, very tough to go against Scheffler. The guy is unreal. I had to find a market without him and I played Morikawa," said Stewart.

      No surprise, Scheffler also leads across the board in the First Round Leader market. "He tops the list in ticket count percentage at 17.5%, handle at 20.6%, and is our biggest liability to lead after Round 1," said O'Dell.

      As sports bettors, we have to be able to try to identify things happening and try to get to the window before it's too late or before something has become widely recognizable and the market pricing has caught up. In regards to Scheffler, Director of race and sports at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas Mike Piranio said to me back in January of this year, "I think he's the next Tiger Woods."

      Now the pricing to win golf tournaments is approaching Woods territory. And the two are tied together in yet a couple of other ways this very week at Pinehurst.

      "Right behind Scheffler, to win this week, Tiger Woods is our third largest liability to win the U.S. Open at BetMGM," said O'Dell. "And Woods has the highest ticket count of anyone to Make The Cut at +220."

      Last week on TOUR, we were at Jack's Place, Muirfield Village, where Scheffler won the Memorial for the first time. Woods, who won Nicklaus' tournament a record five times, is of course here at Pinehurst this week - but is the golf world now "Scottie's Place?" The majority of golf bettors certainly think so and by the look of the prices and the markets sans Scheffler, maybe the oddsmakers believe so too.

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