Odds Outlook: Former champ Scottie Scheffler opens as betting favorite at Arnold Palmer Invitational

The second week of the Florida Swing presents the fourth Signature Event of the 2024 PGA TOUR season at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. Topping the initial odds board are two men who know exactly what it takes to don the champion’s red cardigan in Orlando.

For the third time in four Signature Events, Scottie Scheffler (+650) sits atop the odds board at BetMGM Sportsbook for the 69-man field. Playing for the sixth time in 2024, the No. 1 player in the Official World Golf Ranking has cashed in the top 10 in four of his first five, including all three Signature Events. Picking up the trophy in 2022 in only his second start at the Bay Hill Club & Lodge, he cashed T4 in defense last year.

As he continues playing an increased schedule heading into the Masters, Rory McIlroy (+1000) had a busy seven days near his home in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, last week. He was able to finish the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches before weather postponed the finish to Monday morning. Posting three rounds in the 60s, he should be dialed-in arriving at an event where he rakes in the cash. Looking for his first finish inside the top 20 on TOUR in 2024, the 2018 winner at Bay Hill shared second here last year and has posted six top-10 paydays from nine visits.

The only stumble for Xander Schauffele (+1200) this season was T54 at the chilly, weather-shortened AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The other four events have produced top-10 paychecks, including T4 in his previous outing at The Genesis Invitational at The Riviera Country Club. Annually a contender on TifEagle Bermuda at The Sentry, his two visits to Bay Hill have only produced one round in the 60s and one result inside the top 25 (T24, 2023).

Looking to follow his college teammate Austin Eckroat (+5000) into the winner’s circle in back-to-back weeks, Viktor Hovland (+1200) will look to break the streak of winners registering pre-tournament odds of +4000 or higher this season. Playing only the three Signature Events this season, the Norwegian is looking to produce his first top 10 in 2024. Ranked No. 4 in the OWGR, he has not rekindled the magic of back-to-back wins to close and win the 2023 FedExCup Playoffs. Cashing T10-T2 in his last two visits just outside Orlando, the Bermuda and the warmth of Florida could be the tonic that gets him back on track.

Patrick Cantlay (+1400) arrived for the first time at Arnold Palmer’s par 72 (7,466 yards) last season and cashed T4. The Californian reinforced the theory that the elite players do not need many reps to digest and contend on unfamiliar courses. The last time he found the winner’s circle was the 2022 BMW Championship, but the last time he was on the podium was on Bermudagrass at the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship.

Since 2021, the best players in the world have adjusted their schedules to accommodate the elevated-status events. A quick study, Jordan Spieth (+1800) trailed by two after 54 holes on debut in 2021 before sharing fourth. Returning for the 2023 edition, he posted three more rounds in the red and shared fourth again. The last two times the Texan stood on the podium were in Signature Events on Bermudagrass at The Sentry (third) and RBC Heritage last spring (playoff runner-up). Taking two weeks off after his DQ at Riviera, he should be ready to take off.

Opening the season at The Sentry with T5 on Bermuda, Collin Morikawa (+2000) will look to pick up win No. 2 in the Sunshine State. Winning the WGC-Workday at The Concession in 2021 outside Sarasota, the Californian has had mixed results southwest of the Magic Kingdom. Making his fourth start, he’s looking to post his first round in the 60s.

Cashing T12 or better in seven consecutive events worldwide, Justin Thomas (+2000) stumbled at The Genesis Invitational to miss the cut in his last outing. Making only his third start at Bay Hill, the 2021 PLAYERS champion has seven previous wins on Bermuda.

Trying to take a little California magic to Bay Hill, Max Homa (+2000) put in some reps in during last week’s charity exhibition match. Making his sixth start in 2024, his best three paydays have ranged between T13 and T16, including T14 at The Sentry. Never missing the weekend in four previous visits, T10 in 2021 is his best paycheck. Posting only one round in the 60s from 16 loops, he’s never cashed outside T24, reinforcing the difficulty found at the Bay Hill Club & Lodge.

Last March, Sweden’s Ludvig Åberg (+2000) was ranked No. 982 in the world and an amateur at Texas Tech when he cashed T24 at Bay Hill. This year, he’s one of the top 10 favorites at a PGA TOUR Signature Event. Winning The RSM Classic on Bermuda to wrap up 2023, he stumbled out of the gates with T47 at The Sentry and T30 at The Sony Open in Hawaii. Cashing T9 at Torrey Pines (Farmers Insurance Open) followed by solo second at Pebble Beach (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am), the No. 11-ranked player in the world cashed T19 at Riviera (The Genesis Invitational) to wrap up a successful West Coast run.

This is also the first week of the year with two TOUR events, as a field of 132 players will take on the Puerto Rico Open. Rasmus Højgaard (twin brother of Nicolai) is the outright favorite at +1400 according to BetMGM oddsmakers, followed by Aaron Rai (+2000) and veteran Daniel Berger (+2200).

Højgaard has been trending since late last year, with three top-10 finishes on the DP World Tour in his last four starts. Rai enters off a T19 finish at the Mexico Open at Vidanta, while Berger couldn’t get much going in a home game last week while missing the cut at PGA National – but he did finish T2 in 2019 in his lone prior start in Puerto Rico.

Here's a look at other notable players and odds in Orlando, where only the top 50 plus ties (and anyone within 10 shots of the lead) will play the weekend:

• +2200: Sam Burns
• +2500: Will Zalatoris
• +2800: Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick
• +3000: Jason Day (2016 champion)
• +3300: Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood
• +4000: Adam Scott, Sahith Theegala, Harris English, Tom Kim
• +5000: Jake Knapp, Shane Lowry, Wyndham Clark
• +6000: Matthieu Pavon, Russell Henley
• +6600: Chris Kirk, Corey Conners, J.T. Poston, Kurt Kitayama (defending champion), Nicolai Højgaard, Si Woo Kim, Sungjae Im, Tom Hoge
• +8000: Adam Hadwin, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Rickie Fowler
• +9000: Luke List
• +10000: Brian Harman, Cam Davis, Denny McCarthy, Emiliano Grillo, Justin Rose, Nick Taylor, Sepp Straka, Stephan Jaeger
• +12500: Adam Svensson, Patrick Rodgers, Taylor Moore
• +15000: Andrew Putnam, Brendon Todd, Lucas Glover, Mark Hubbard
• +17500: Adam Schenk
• +20000: C.T. Pan, Sami Valimaki
• +25000: Justin Lower, Mackenzie Hughes, Nick Dunlap, Seamus Power
• +30000: Lee Hodges, Webb Simpson
• +40000: Grayson Murray
• +75000: David Ford

How the Arnold Palmer Invitational works:

• A field of 69 players will be cut to the top 50 and ties, plus any golfer within 10 shots of the lead after 36 holes.

• Purse of $20 million, with the winner taking home $4 million, plus 700 FedExCup points, an invitation to the Masters, THE PLAYERS and the 2025 Sentry.

Circle back tomorrow as I post more details in Horses for Courses.

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