Prop Farm: Eric Cole on the prop radar in Palm Beaches

From the crops of Hawaii, California, Arizona and Mexico, we shift this week to the fertile grounds of Florida, looking to farm out some tasty prop bets, as we begin a four-week run in the Sunshine State.

The PGA TOUR is making the "leap" across the country to begin a tournament on February 29th. I asked the director of Race & Sportsbook at The Borgata in New Jersey, Thomas Gable, if he was going to be putting up a YES/NO prop bet this week, on whether or not someone would shoot "29" for nine holes at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches with February 29th being a rare occurrence.

"That's a great idea for a prop. I may have to do that. I'll get it priced up," Gable said, enthusiastically.

More on that in a moment. Meanwhile, we begin with who is seeing action to win the tournament.

The 2012 champion and 2014 runner-up, Rory McIlroy, headlines the field this week and is the only player listed at single-digit odds (+800 at BetMGM) in the outright market - but that is not stopping the bettors. "Outright money has all been for Rory," said Tristan Davis, senior manager at Mandalay Bay Race & Sportsbook. "Hopefully it’s not because he won a 12-hole skins game a few days ago and is more to do with the fact that he is clearly the best player in the tournament. It is one of the very few times in a season where we see a favorite in single figures for a PGA TOUR tournament but the price is not deterring the punters."

Furthermore, Davis said, "In fact once again it’s a favorite-dominated tournament, handle-wise, with the top three in the market (McIlroy, Cameron YoungandEric Cole) taking up just over 30% of the hold so far. Adam SvenssonandDaniel Berger, at slightly bigger prices, also have a good following."

Notable Las Vegas golf oddsmaker, Jeff Sherman, echoed Davis' thoughts on Cole. "Eric Cole is the flavor of the week, leading in ticket count and money wagered. That's pretty much the extent of the notable action."

Gable piled on by saying, "Eric Cole has certainly become more and more popular with bettors each week. This week is no exception."

Hall of Fame bookmaker, Nick Bogdanovich, is seeing a bit of a different pattern. "Our biggest liability is with Sungjae Im. Robert MacIntyreandRasmus Højgaard are also getting some love," said Bogdanovich.

Gable is seeing a little bit of everything at The Borgata. "For the outright market, Eric Cole at +2500 and Min Woo Lee at +3500 have been popular plays. Some longer shots that are getting bet are: Rasmus Højgaard at +5000, Akshay Bhatia at +6800, and Billy Horschel at +8000," Gable explained.

Rasmus' brother Nicolai was one of the shorter-priced players last week in Mexico and was one of the leaders in ticket count at BetMGM. No matter which Højgaard, bettors are seemingly on board. Nicolai got off to a decent start in the Mexico Open at Vidanta but cooled off quickly and ended up finishing tied for 52nd. As for McIlroy, this will be his first time playing this event in six years. Cole has quite a bit of experience at PGA National outside of TOUR events and backed that up with a runner-up finish last season, losing in a playoff to Chris Kirk. Berger has played in three events to begin 2024 but missed roughly 18 months prior to this due to injury. He may be the biggest horse for this course however, with two straight fourth-place finishes in 2020 and 2022, and a runner-up in 2015.

Turning to the First Round Leader market, Gable has seen something more than just recreational play at his shop. "We’ve seen respected money on Camilo Villegas at +17500, Sepp Straka at +5000andByeong Hun An at +4000," said Gable, who celebrates 21 years at The Borgata this Friday. Congratulations, Thomas!

Villegas and Straka are former Cognizant Classic winners. An ranks 32nd in First Round Scoring Average this season and was 11th on TOUR last year in that category. An is seventh in Birdie Average this year.

At Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas, Davis noted some respected play in the Head-to-Head Matchup market. "There have been some sharp moves on a few," said the 20-year industry veteran.

"Eric Cole to beat Sungjae Im has gone from -110 into -130," Davis pointed out. "Min Woo Lee to beat Shane Lowry, from -110 into -130, and Rickie Fowler to beat Berger has moved from -105 into -115."

For Gable, it is back to McIlroy in this market. "The marquee tournament matchup is Rory McIlroy (-180) against Cam Young (+155). McIlroy is getting bet by both the public and some respected bettors in that match-up. Also, Justin Rose at +110 over Luke List (-130) has been taking money as a small dog."

As for that prop, I concocted about a player shooting a 29 for nine holes this week, Gable got back to me, explaining, "The first step on getting this prop up is to get the regulator's approval. They said they won't have that in time, prior to the start of the tournament. Great idea though."

Courtesy of my friend and avid golfer, Scott Flansburg, a.k.a. The Human Calculator, the next time February 29th falls on a Thursday will be in 2052. We'll be on the lookout for that prop offering 28 years from now, Mr. Gable.

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