Golfbet Insider: Targeting key course conditions that impact Cognizant Classic at The Palm Beaches wagers

When handicapping an event, there’s no shortage of relevant variables to consider, such as course history, recent form and weather.

But this time of year, another makes the cut as a pillar of preparation: grass.

We can’t predict the lies and how often anyone finds them, but familiarity with specific strains can present an edge.

It’s not a coincidence if you see a few more smiles on the faces of the 144 in the field at this week’s Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches. After bouncing around on Bermudagrass, Poa annua, Bentgrass and Paspalum in Hawaii, the West Coast and the Pacific Coast of Mexico, a regular flow of Bermuda is on tap throughout the Florida Swing, and it begins at PGA National Resort’s Champion course.

Experiences playing in this kind of wind and putting on Bermuda are weapons. It’s why expectations for natives of the Southeast change when the PGA TOUR heads east. Those players get a confidence boost along with improved results from what many logged on the West Coast. It happens every year.

Using last year as the most recent sample size, eight of the 11 who recorded a top 10 at PGA National were a combined 18-for-34 on making the cut without a top 10 upon arrival. Only 2023 champion Chris Kirk and Ben Taylor (T5) had made noise previously. (Ryan Gerard had played only the Korn Ferry Tour.)

Many of those reversals of fortune have direct ties to the Southeast, but clearly, all found solace in getting back on the surface. Lean into it.

Pull Quote

Max Greyserman (+225 = Top 40 via BetMGM Sportsbook) … There are more attractive considerations for this prop, but there is a clear-cut reason why this PGA TOUR rookie in his tournament debut (and who is just 1-for-4 on the season) slots in at this modest kickback – he used to live on the course.

OK, so not on the course. That would be weird. But very nearby. It no doubt contributed to why he met with the media on Tuesday.

“There are some villas right out here,” he said, “and I lived in one of the townhomes that’s about as close as it gets to here.”

If you ever created a density chart of where PGA TOUR players originate, grew up playing, wintered, or currently live, Florida would feature a pretty big circle (including Greyserman). He calls Palm Beach Gardens home now, but he’s played PGA National’s set of courses dozens upon dozens of times, including the Champion course “probably 50 times.”

“I get to sleep at home,” he added. “I've got my wife, my dog with me, family, friends. Just knowing that this is kind of like a second home other than up north (New Jersey), it's kind of where I grew up and learned the game. Yeah, certainly comfortable.”

My take: First, it wasn’t covered in his presser, but it’s still relevant that he’s returning immediately from a sore back that forced him out of the Mexico Open at Vidanta during his second round. Consider that a positive in the absence of any rhetoric.

Depending on how stingy you are with your units, he’s a coin flip for half a unit for this prop.

On one hand, as he detailed, it’s as much of a home game as it gets for the 28-year-old. On the other, he’s still enduring the dynamics as a rookie and against a really solid field of 144.

“Yeah, I've played this course quite a bit before, but obviously during this tournament, like they do with most other tournaments, things get tough,” he detailed. “The greens get firmer. Rough is a little longer.

“In previous years, the scores have been pretty high. If the wind is blowing, it could be a single-digit winner under par, and if it's not blowing, it could go double digits. But it's fairways and greens out here. It's a premium on ball-striking.”

All of it matters, especially for a talent as green as Greyserman at this level of the sport. It took him three seasons spanning the pandemic to get here, so what’s another couple of months to fine-tune his form and show off his ability at home?

Power Rankings Wild Card

Cameron Young (+110 = Top 20) … Sticking with the theme that, well, Taylor Pendrith failed to fulfill as last week’s Wild Card as the shortest on the board not in the Power Rankings proper – he missed the cut in Mexico – this non-winner steps forward a little stronger. But I’m still recommending the same result.

At +2200 to win, Young is the second-shortest behind Rory McIlroy (+750), but he’s the first with plus-money value for this prop.

En route to a T16 in his only prior appearance here in 2022, Young authored an outing that’s been lucrative for him but annoying to us at the same time. He scored even-par 280, which is terrific on this tough track, but his scores were 68, 73, 74 and 65, respectively. It’s a microcosm of his short-term frenetic all the while his long-term fantastic suppresses his potential pop.

So, respect the reality of this budding star. He arrives having recorded three top 20s in his last three starts worldwide, two of which were top 10s, so there’s a recency bias in his favor that supports reaching for a top 10 at +225.

Tap-Ins

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• PARLAY: Stephan Jaeger, Keith Mitchell, Sepp Straka (+188 = All to Make the Cut)
• Matt Fitzpatrick (+180 = Miss the Cut)
• Lee Hodges (+375 = Top 20)
• Billy Horschel (+120 = Top 40)
• Zach Johnson (+300 = Top 40)
• Jake Knapp (+150 = Miss the Cut)
• Camilo Villegas (+500 = Top South American)

Returning To Competition

Kevin Streelman (+300 = Top 40) … After calling it quits during the second round of the Farmers Insurance Open, his back was still too sore to peg it in his backyard at the WM Phoenix Open, so you know it was no joke. He’s 45 years of age, but back injuries are debilitating no matter what, so that he’s rested from competition for a month now must be a relief beyond the norm. It’s within that fresh restart that we should attach confidence, and it’s a bonus that he connected for top 40s at PGA National in his last two tries (2021, 2022).

Peter Malnati … Was a late scratch prior to the opening round of the Mexico Open due to a sore back. It’s given him a full two weeks off since his fourth missed cut in five starts this season. He’s also just 2-for-7 at PGA National and without a top-35 finish.

Ben Kohles … Illness felled the 34-year-old during his second round of the Mexico Open at Vidanta. That’s always the preferred option versus an injury, but he’s now just 2-for-5 on the season and without a top 45. It added to the pressure that full-season investors already have been feeling waiting for him to carry forward his exceptional season on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 and fully-exempt status free from reorders on the PGA TOUR in 2024.

Pierceson Coody … On the preseason short-list for Rookie of the Year, he has yet to cash in four starts. His last short week was even shorter when an illness knocked him out of the Mexico Open in the second round.

Chris Gotterup … Just like Coody but before the second round, Gotterup also had to exit Mexico with an illness. He’s cashed just once in four tries in 2024.

Tim Wilkinson … The 45-year-old is scheduled to tee it up at his national open in New Zealand this week. Multiple injuries and knee surgery (in October of 2021) have sidelined the lefty. He still has starts left on the PGA TOUR via a medical extension in the graduate reshuffle category, thus the attention granted to him here.

Notable WDs

Mackenzie Hughes … His modest consecutive cuts-made streak of seven was halted by a rough outing in Mexico last week. It’s unlike him to withdraw between the commitment deadline and an opening round, but this will give the Canadian a full week to prep for his fourth start at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. Assuming he can give it a go, it’ll be his second of the last six editions.

Chez Reavie … With only one payday (in 2010) in five tries, he won’t be missed, but the struggle remains real for the 42-year-old. He’s fully exempt through this season but he’s just 1-for-5 with a T52 at The American Express. The most compelling component of his career has been how he keeps on figuring out how to keep his card. In other words, never rule him out.

Jhonattan Vegas … Bowed out early on Wednesday. He’d have been a popular pick what with six top 40s among 10 paydays at PGA National. Instead, he’ll sit on 20 starts remaining on his Major Medical Extension until his next start.

Vince Whaley … The 28-year-old entered this season with momentum and, therefore, hope, but he’s cashed just once in five starts (T34, The American Express). Hang in there if you’re a long-term owner, however. He still has 13 starts on a Major Medical Extensionand you already know that he’s secure with conditional status at worst.

Membership Notes

James Hahn … In his last start via a Minor Medical Extension last week, he fell short of terms both for a promotion to the Major Medical category and for conditional status. However, because he’s a former winner on the PGA TOUR, the lifetime membership means that he’ll remain eligible for the FedExCup and can draw on playing opportunities on his number in the Beyond 150 reshuffle in addition to sponsor exemptions, open qualifiers and top-10 exemptions into opens.

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