Prop Farm: Bettors banking on big names to end longshot streak at AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

My oh my, talk about a correction in the market. In the 2022-23 PGA TOUR season, we saw plenty of betting favorites win tournaments. It has been a polar opposite through the first four weeks of the 2024 season with Chris Kirk, Grayson Murray, Nick Dunlap and Matthieu Pavon each finding the winners’ circle - all going off pre-tournament odds at anywhere from +15000 to +40000.

Between September 2022 and November 2023, the first choice on the odds board won eight times on TOUR - with many others winning that were only a few notches removed from the top spot.

This week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am marks the second Signature Event of the young season. Eighty players make up the field for what is a no-cut format, but 40% of the field (32 players) are currently trading at triple-digit prices at BetMGM Sportsbook. Will the trend of longshots continue?

Not according to the action that Thomas Gable, Director of Race & Sports Book at The Borgata in New Jersey, is seeing.

"Tony Finau (+2800) has been getting bet in the outright market and in his matchup against Cam Young," Gable said. Finau challenged once again at Torrey Pines, where he now owns six top-10 finishes after tying for sixth at the Farmers Insurance Open last week. He struggled mightily off the tee and on the greens however, hitting only 50% of the fairways and ranking 72nd out of 79 players that made the cut in Strokes Gained: Putting.

"Beau Hossler is being faded despite a top-10 finish last week, in his matchup against Eric Cole," Gable added. Hossler, like Finau, also tied for sixth at Torrey Pines but was much more adept on the Poa Annua greens, ranking 11th in the field for SG: Putting. Hossler's last two trips to Pebble Beach have resulted in 11th- and third-place finishes. In his only ever trip to Pebble, Cole finished 15th last year.

Tristan Davis, Senior Manager at the Race & Sports Book at Mirage in Las Vegas, is seeing similar results this week.

"Recreational play on Jordan Spieth (+1800) and Patrick Cantlay (+2000) is collecting the most handle for us right now in the outright market,” Davis said. “We have 25% on those two players. We have also seen some money roll in on Eric Cole at +6600."

But Davis did go on to say that casual players are also taking a stab on a long shot, too. "Brendon Todd (+9000) is the worst for us right now at the big odds."

Davis then added, “Todd is the popular play in the Top 20 Finish market at +250. He’s responsible for 20% of the handle here.” Todd was runner-up to Justin Rose last year at this tournament and also has two additional top-10 finishes here.

"We've seen sharp money on Jason Day at +4000," Davis continued. Day has certainly been a horse for this course(s) and on the Poa annua greens seen both here and at Torrey Pines, where he is a two-time champion. Day has two top-15 finishes at Pebble Beach and eight top-10s in his career.

The weather is expected to be a big factor with rain in the forecast for all four days of the tournament. This has bettors looking for players that may be able to handle the conditions better than others – and that may mean gravitating toward the Europeans. “With the bad conditions predicted, we are now starting to see the money come in for Tommy Fleetwood currently at +4000,” said Davis.

The weather factor is carrying over into other markets as well.

“Tournament matchup-wise, punters have steamed into Matt Fitzpatrick to beat Cam Young at -125,” Davis said. “This would be another wet/windy conditions theory, I assume.”

For the third week in a row on TOUR, players will rotate over more than just one golf course to get the tournament started and with that, there are First Round Leader markets at BetMGM this week for both Thursday’s action on Spyglass Hill and also Thursday’s opening round at Pebble Beach. Gable pointed out what has been coming in at his shop at The Borgata.

“For the Spyglass Hill pool, Sepp Straka at +4000 and Sahith Theegala at +2800 have been popular choices,” Gable said. “For Pebble Beach, Adam Hadwin (+2500) and Denny McCarthy (+2200) have taken money.”

In Birdie Average on TOUR this season, Hadwin ranks eighth, McCarthy 11th, Straka 20th, and Theegala 37th. Theegala finished the 2022-23 season ranked 15th. McCarthy was 20th on TOUR last season in First Round Scoring Average and Hadwin was 40th. They were also 19th and 24th in Bogey Avoidance last year, respectively.

Finally, Davis at Mirage pointed out two more niche market plays he has been seeing take action leading up to Thursday’s start. “One tournament special that we have is for the winner of the tournament NOT to come from the final group on Sunday at +190. We’ve seen good money on the NO here. Maybe because of the conditions, punters are thinking there won’t be a blowout winner.”

The second of these niche market bets being offered by BetMGM is that a specific player will play the first round bogey-free. Davis has seen two of the favorites garnering action here. “We have a couple of first round specials where the punters do like the bogey-free option at +1200 on Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa.”

Outside of some action on Todd, it looks like oddsmakers would make quite the scoop again if we get our fifth triple-digit outright winner of the season this week in Northern California – and if, of course, he DOES come from the final group on Sunday.

Here’s a look at the players currently priced at +10000 or better at BetMGM to win (and continue the longshot streak):

• Andrew Putnam +10000
• Cam Davis +10000
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout +10000
• Emiliano Grillo +10000
• Harris English +10000
• Thomas Detry +10000
• Tom Hoge +10000
• Adam Schenk +12500
• Adam Svensson +12500
• Kurt Kitayama +12500
• Luke List +12500
• Ben Griffin +15000
• Brandon Wu +15000
• Erik Van Rooyen +15000
• Lucas Glover +15000
• Mackenzie Hughes +15000
• Maverick McNealy +15000
• Taylor Moore +15000
• Mark Hubbard +17500
• Matt Kuchar +17500
• Alex Smalley +20000
• J.J. Spaun +20000
• Sam Ryder +20000
• Nick Hardy +22500
• Grayson Murray +25000
• Lee Hodges +25000
• S.H. Kim +25000
• Seamus Power +30000
• Webb Simpson +30000
• Davis Riley +40000
• Peter Malnati +40000
• Hayden Buckley +50000

My personal choice to win it all from the pool of longshots – give me Christiaan Bezuidenhout at +10000.

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