Golfbet Insider: Navigating a week with more questions than answers at Pebble Beach Golf Links

Let’s gamble! Maybe.

After four weeks of longshot winners, perhaps you’re leaning into taking a week off. Tickets have been tough to cash, and there’s been no shortage of variables to consider.

That won’t change this week with the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where the weather forecast resembles what we’d expect for The Open Championship. Wind, rain, cool air, the works. Toss in a couple of longer days inside the ropes, with amateurs competing in the first and second rounds, and it all adds up to a bit of a crapshoot.

In docile conditions, Pebble Beach Golf Links can roll over for low scores, and there’s a chance for that very thing in Saturday’s scheduled third round. But the forecast for Sunday (and Monday, if necessary) could spoil many efforts to be in position to capture victory, 700 FedExCup points and a $3.6-million payday.

As the italicized footer below notes, the first rule of all gaming is to have fun. But if you’re reading this, the assumption is that you’re going to bet. One consideration this week would be distributing your units to sidestep the (unpredictable) final round. Because you can control the windows in which you’re exposed, appreciate the value of the margins of error for full-tournament props and live betting.

There’s another exercise that can pay forward into the next time we see this math – that’s to pencil down hypothetical bets. In other words, inject the philosophy for which you stand in a vacuum and apply it to bets that you won’t make. Follow along to watch and learn what happens.

I’ve always espoused that the emotion yielded from your decisions is your best teacher. It's why we remember the triumphs and the bad beats, but not all have to result in actual wins and losses to serve as lessons.

PULL QUOTE

Collin Morikawa (+175 = Top 10) … Among the 11 tournament debutants in the field, but he’s not new to Pebble Beach. He made his first-ever start in a major in the 2019 U.S. Open and finished T35. Of course, the stock par 72 is easier this week than it was as a modified par 71 five years ago, but having eyes on the targets previously never doesn’t have value.

His limited experience on the course and unfamiliarity with Spyglass Hill Golf Course for this tournament would seem to pose an additional challenge, especially after coming off what could be perceived as a blow to his confidence in missing the cut at last week’s Farmers Insurance Open. However, in his meeting with the media on Tuesday, he spoke about how success in the long term can sustain a positive outlook when returning immediately after failure.

My take: First of all, what else would you expect him to say? It’s a textbook response but especially for a talent who doesn’t slump. In other words, this is his norm. He’s proven that this mindset works, which is not as simple as he makes it sound. No doubt that the balance throughout his life supports what he does best as a professional golfer.

Indeed, he prevailed at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP in October where it meant a great deal, but it had been 27 months since his previous victory at The Open Championship. For a two-time major champion, there is an expectation to win more often. Then again, he laid a strong foundation early and then enjoyed focusing on getting married, and there’s never anything wrong with that.

Guys like Morikawa and Sam Burns (below) should populate every Power Ranking regardless of the variables, so when they slide into decent plus-money values down the board, they can be cornerstones in weeks when there are more question marks than answers.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Sam Burns (+115 = Top 20) … He’s had a week to lick his wounds and prepare for redemption, but it was hard to watch his finish at PGA WEST en route to a T6. It escalated quickly.

Most of the first 70 holes of The American Express were encouraging to say the least, so we need to expect him to have turned the page and slammed the book closed on that experience. It’s part of the longest learning curve of them all – the arc of a career.

So, that he’s already back into plus-money value to finish inside the top quartile at Pebble Beach is like a free play for the easy-going tall drink of water. And if he needs to tap into a tournament in which he galloped through the tape, he’ll pull up the 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge. In the finale at Colonial Country Club, his 65 beat the field average by over seven shots and he beat buddy Scottie Scheffler in a playoff. Burns started the finale seven strokes back of his pal.

The kind of wind that Burns conquered that day will be the norm at times this week.

TAP-INS

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• PARLAY: Patrick Cantlay and Jordan Spieth (+650 = Both to Finish in the Top 10)
• PARLAY: Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Thomas (+300 = Both to Finish in the Top 20)
• PARLAY: Beau Hossler and J.T. Poston (+550 = Both to Finish in the Top 20)
• Ludvig Åberg (+220 = Top 10)
• Adam Hadwin (+200 = Top 20)
• Kurt Kitayama (+320 = Top 20)
• Adam Scott (+175 = Top 20)
• Brendon Todd (+250 = Top 20)

MEMBERSHIP NOTES

Maverick McNealy … This concludes McNealy Watch in this space, at least for now. He managed to eliminate the deficit on his Major Medical Extension at Torrey Pines. It means he’s exempt in the category for the remainder of the season and exempt into THE PLAYERS Championship. It was as close as it gets to a foregone conclusion given that he achieved the objective with seven starts that he didn’t need. His success means that C.T. Pan is now closest to fulfilling his terms on a medical extension. Pan has a dozen starts but needs only 56.440 FedExCup points to retain status. If he or any other golfer on a medical meets his terms before THE PLAYERS, he also will be exempt into the PGA TOUR’s flagship stop.

The PGA TOUR is committed to protecting our fans. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, the National Council on Problem Gambling operates a confidential toll-free hotline that you can reach by phone or text at 1-800-522-4700.