Benny & the Bets: Embrace rise of longshots at AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

PEBBLE BEACH, Calif. – If you’ve backed an outright winner pre-tournament on the PGA TOUR this season, I can only stand and applaud.

From Chris Kirk (+12500) to Grayson Murray (+35000) to Nick Dunlap (+40000) and finally Matthieu Pavon (+15000) we have seen massive longshots triumph in our opening month of tournaments.

I must admit, for a few moments, I was getting annoyed. Despite these four incredible stories littered with redemption and historic feats, I was the grumpy old guy lamenting the fact that my prognostications have not picked up a victor so far.

All the research, the data dives and the calls to insiders and players had turned over some names who contended, sure ... but I never sniffed the above winners.

But as I told anyone who would listen when we launched Golfbet: As sports betting grows in the U.S., so too will the number of people who see the magic in betting on golf.

Yes, it is hard to pick a winner. But the chance of a longshot winning in golf is much more likely than it is elsewhere. It opens up so many more strategies. You can factor a small portion of your bank on a triple-digit odds player and be in the mix while still playing more conservatively at the top as your main approach.

“There's more parity in golf than maybe some other professional sports," Rory McIlroy said Tuesday at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. "I think it's the way the structure of the game is set up that you can have an amateur play in a professional event and have the chance to win … and it creates these amazing stories in golf that I think are hard to create with other sports.”

Let’s look at some quick price comparisons with the upcoming Super Bowl.

Kirk’s win at The Sentry, at +12500, is the same odds that the San Francisco 49ers Defense/Special Teams will score two or more touchdowns in the Super Bowl. In 57 Super Bowls, this has happened just five times. The 49ers have only scored one Defense/Special Teams touchdown all season.

Pavon’s +15000 odds to win the Farmers Insurance Open can be found on Kansas City Chiefs cornerback L’Jarius Sneed to be the Super Bowl MVP. A cornerback has won the MVP award just once: Larry Brown (Super Bowl XXX). Brown needed two interceptions in the game to boost his candidacy. Sneed has just two interceptions this entire season.

Finding a +35000 or +40000 Super Bowl bet with any chance of hitting is almost impossible. So, you get the picture. While NFL betting is skewed to positions of influence like quarterbacks, running backs or wide receivers the depth of talent on the PGA TOUR is such that most anyone who tees it up can have a big week and take home a trophy.

And so, rather than lament the lack of favorites, or those higher up the odds boards winning, we should embrace it. Especially as we head to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am this week, where in recent times the likes of Nick Taylor (+12500 in 2020), Ted Potter Jr. (+50000 in 2018) and Vaughn Taylor (+30000 in 2016) have all prevailed.

Now, with all that being said, this is a new era at Pebble Beach.

As a Signature Event on TOUR, the big names are all suiting up with some like Scottie Scheffler and Collin Morikawa playing the event for the first time. Will this fact alone start to tip the scales back to those higher on the odds boards?

Pebble Beach Golf Links will host three of the four rounds for the tournament, with Spyglass Hill Golf Course getting one round in the opening two days. The amateurs only play the first two rounds, leaving the 80 professionals on their own at Pebble Beach for the final two rounds.

As has often been the case for the event, rain and wind are set to be a factor, and temperatures will be certainly on the chilly side.

With all the changes, using historical data to guide us should be taken with a degree of caution. Strokes Gained stats have only ever been derived from rounds at Pebble Beach, which for some players has been just one round a year.

What we do know is Pebble’s greens are some of the smallest on TOUR at an average of just 3,500 square feet, so a premium on Greens in Regulation percentages and Proximity to the hole has been evident. It’s one thing to hit the small targets, and another thing to be close enough to convert more chances than others on the Poa putting surfaces.

Over the last 12 seasons, the winner at Pebble Beach has ranked inside the top 10 for GIR on 11 occasions. The last 13 winners have been inside the top 30 in Proximity with six of the last eight being ranked inside the top 10 of the metric.

Par-4 Scoring has also been a big indicator of success, with nine of the last 10 winners being either first or second during their Pebble Beach triumph, and if you are looking for an inside baseball-type stat, it’s important to note the combatants usually face more shots with wedges under 125 yards than most weeks on TOUR. So those who can convert with the short clubs can thrive. The last 10 winners were all inside the top 12 of Birdie or Better % from less than 125 yards.

OUTRIGHTS

While I will no longer lament a longshot winner, I am still going to stick to more fancied players in my outright slot this week. Patrick Cantlay (+2000) has four finishes of 11th or better in this event, including his last three. He was ranked third on TOUR last season in Par 4 Scoring and second on TOUR in Birdies or Better inside 125 yards.

Next, I’m banking on a serious putting turnaround from young star Ludvig Åberg (+2800). At Torrey Pines last week he was T5 in Proximity but missed three putts from 5-7 feet, two putts between 3 and 5 feet and he missed three putts from inside 3 feet across his three South Course rounds and still finished T9. Last season Åberg was tied for first on TOUR in Par-4 Scoring, was third in GIR and second in Proximity.

PLACE MARKETS

Despite being burned last week with a missed cut, I can’t help but advocate for Jason Day at Pebble Beach where he has eight top-10s prior in this event. The +4000 outright price is certainly an option, but the more conservative approach is the +275 for a Top 10.Day is ranked eighth this season in Birdies or Better % from inside 125 yards.

It’s also tough to leave out former champion Jordan Spieth from your tickets this week, even at a short +175 for a Top 10.He has six prior Top 10s in the event and ranks fourth this season in GIR.

LONGSHOTS

Brendon Todd (+9000) doesn’t reach the triple-digit odds we’ve seen land so far this season, but with a runner-up last year and a T16 the year before this putting guru could surprise again. Todd was also 10th on TOUR last season in Proximity and sixth on TOUR in Birdies or Better inside 125 yards.

If you want a triple-digit option there is always Maverick McNealy (+15000) the California kid with a T5 and second place on his Pebble Beach Pro-Am resume. He just fulfilled his Major Medical Extension for a TOUR card with a T37 last week alleviating any worries going forward. He’s gained 1.553 strokes per round total at Pebble Beach in recent years.

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