Sleeper picks: ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Max Homa (+5000) … With 15 of the field of 78 in the Power Rankings, and respecting the cachet of the first four winners at ACCORDIA GOLF Narashino Country Club – Tiger Woods (2019), Hideki Matsuyama (2021), Keegan Bradley (2022) and Collin Morikawa (2023) – the lane to lean into an available proven performer is narrow.

Of course, Homa needs no introduction but his odds should be much shorter on name alone. They’re not because he’s scuffled for most of the last five months. However, he knows how to win (with six PGA TOUR titles to his credit) and he’s equipped with something that he hadn’t felt in a while – success. His point at the Presidents Cup was his only of the competition but it was the last for the victorious United States squad, and he gushed about how much of a lift it was to be a part of it. Perhaps he doesn’t deserve a full unit on your card, but being on board in any capacity for a rebound in sports is as satisfying as it gets.

Top 5

Will Zalatoris (+550) … If you’re a loyal reader, you’ll remember that he was the first of the touts for a top five who delivered. He got the party started at +650 with a T2 at The Genesis Invitational in February. That was a long time ago, though, and he acknowledged his trials and tribulations when discussing his season at the FedEx St. Jude Championship where he’s a former champion.

He then went out and finished T12 at TPC Southwind before piggybacking it with a T13 at the BMW Championship. He’d wind up T12 in fairways hit and T6 in greens in regulation in the FedExCup Playoffs. His full-season data doesn’t support it in part due to how he’s had to reconnect with the competitive feels following recovery from a microdiscectomy that cost him most of 2023, but he’s a ball-striker by nature. That can play up at Narashino and the nearest objects in the rear-view mirror support an encore performance in this space.

Top 10

Ryo Hisatsune (+550) … His rookie season has yielded just one top 10 (T3, Wyndham Championship), but he’s also posted another four top 20s to sit 93rd in the FedExCup. As a transfer via the DP World Tour where he finished inside the top 10 among the eligible for a 2024 PGA TOUR card, objectively it’s been a success, but that he’s just turned 22 years of age fuels more reason than usual in any investment to get excited in the short- and long-term. For this week, he’s back home in his native Japan and in his fourth appearance. In the pair of editions that bracketed the 2022-23 season, he finished a respective T12 and T6, the latter for which he co-led the field in par-4 scoring, which is one of his statistical constants. Currently 21st in greens in regulation and rested after finishing T25 at the Black Desert Championship.

Top 20

Kevin Yu (+230) … While getting caught up in the unfortunate side of the draw – as he was at the Shriners Children’s Open where he missed the cut by four strokes – that can pay forward for our intents and purposes the next time out. With this kind of kickback for finishing inside the top quarter of the field on a course that requires his strength of piling up scoring opportunities and scoring on par 3s, now we’re happy about last week’s outcome. He also had just opened October with his breakthrough victory at the Sanderson Farms Championship, which was his sixth top 20 of the season, so the angle for his eligibility in Sleepers so soon afterward is the value.

Top 30

Chad Ramey (+180) … With a limited field and no cut, opening this market is a nice compromise between nothing and the usual board for Top 40s. Had it been available for the Black Desert Championship and the Shriners Children’s Open, he’d have paid in both with respective finishes of T21 and T23. They add perspective to the care that he took for an injured wrist that forced him out of the Sanderson Farms Championship in his native Mississippi. He had opened with 1-over 73, but shutting it down likely didn’t come lightly despite sincere respect for the long-term goal of finishing inside the top 125 of the FedExCup. Now at 109th, he can step on the pedal even more in his second start at Narashino.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

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