Bolton: Magic may be in air for betting favorite Xander Schauffele at ZOZO

Unlike the last three tournaments for which there wasn’t a prohibitive favorite, the odds for outrights at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP increase sharply after Xander Schauffele’s field-short +450, Collin Morikawa at +700 and Hideki Matsuyama at +800. They don’t begin to flatten until +3000.

Depending on your approach, you might be keen on picking one of those three horses before divvying up units dedicated to outright selections among longer shots. The thing is, because it’s against the odds for all three to scuffle at the same time, it’s likely that one will prevail. Contributing to that angle, from Tiger Woods (2019) to Matsuyama (2021) to Keegan Bradley (2022) and Collin Morikawa (2023), ACCORDIA GOLF Narashino Country Club has rewarded the "Who’s who."

However, my advice would be to split a unit between Sungjae Im (+1400) and Sahith Theegala (+1800) for the reasons stated in my Power Rankings. That’d give you two from a pool of five with odds in relative proximity to each other after the splits.

If you’re still on the fence, hopes are highest for Schauffele, winner of two majors this year. His record in (and affinity for) limited-field, no-cut competitions is the stuff of legend, but his results at Narashino are not impressive relative to his expectations.

Magic already has occurred here for former champions Matsuyama, a native of Japan, and Morikawa, who is of Japanese heritage through his father. Schauffele also has a career-defining experience in the country, having won the gold medal in the Olympics in 2021, and his grandparents live in Japan – he sees them every time he visits – but they were unable to attend the Olympics due to COVID-19. Therefore, if you believe in magic, he’ll win this week.

As a reminder, bettors keen on getting to the window this week should note the time difference between Chiba, Japan, and the United States. Narashino Country Club is positioned 13 hours ahead of Eastern Time in the U.S., meaning opening-round tee times that start at 8:45 a.m. local time Thursday translate to 7:45 p.m. ET on Wednesday and 4:45 p.m. PT on the West Coast. Many markets will remain open for live betting, but some will close once balls are in the air – so adjust and plan accordingly.

Power Rankings wild card

Eric Cole (+130 = Top 20) … Yeah, this isn’t that exciting, but he demanded some attention as last year’s co-runner-up. Remember that at the time he was riding a ridiculous stretch that yielded a T2, two T3s and a fourth across five starts en route to Rookie of the Year honors. For his return, a T16 at the Sanderson Farms Championship is his only top-45 finish of the last four. He’s been much more hit-and-miss this season, but he’s still a gym rat who plays as often as he wants, so poor performances are going to be more frequent than others who don’t compete as much. He’s also among the least effective in giving himself chances to pour in par-breakers. That’s OK when par is a better score than projected this week, but it also applies more pressure not to waste opportunities. So, with no cut and his firepower, this finish is a fair expectation, and you’re still getting plus-money value.

Other notables

Harry Hall (+350 = Top 10) … Given the option to reach on impactful odds versus assembling a series of attainable goals, I almost always prefer the latter. It’s the conservative in me that’s been on record in this space for as long as I’ve been in it. However, every once in a while, stars align to reconsider the former. This explains this bet for the Brit. His odds for a Top 20 are +138, but he’s been in a groove for too many months that a Top 10 isn’t an outrageous ask. The field is only 78 deep and there is no cut, so he’s more likely to put four rounds together than others who are not as sharp. He finished T21 in his debut here a year ago, and he’s fresh off a T9 in Las Vegas where expectations were just as high.

Satoshi Kodaira (+750 = Top 20) … The one-time PGA TOUR winner lost his fully exempt status after the 2022-23 season, so he’s spread himself around four circuits this year, most recently in his native Japan, where he’s logged a pair of top 20s in his last eight starts. Granted, the depth of this week’s field can’t compare, but he turned in a T16 and a T12 in both editions of the ZOZO last season when he had only one other top 20.

Tap-ins

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• Hole-in-one (-110 = No) … Despite the ease of the five par 3s in the aggregate, there wasn’t an ace on any of them in the first four editions that Narashino hosted. Altogether, the fields went 0-for-6,185.
• Shugo Imahira (+160 = Top 30)
• Ryosuke Kinoshita (+210 = Top 30)
• Mac Meissner (+188 = Top 20)
• Brendon Todd (+140 = Top 30)

Notable withdrawals

Emiliano Grillo … Third straight early exit. He’s 69th in the FedExCup but already fully exempt in the winners’ category through 2025.

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