Sleeper Picks: Shriners Children's Open

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Ben Kohles (+10000) … All non-winners on the PGA TOUR need not turn back the clock any further than the last two weeks for inspiration as both Kevin Yu (Sanderson Farms Championship) and Matt McCarty (Black Desert Championship) broke through. Kohles is aiming to join the club that has grown by 13 this season. He sat just one off the lead at the midpoint at Black Desert before backpedaling into a T46, but the glass is half full. He’s 83rd in the FedExCup, so his focus can be singular without the pressure to perform. He got a taste of the heat as the 54-hole leader at the Puerto Rico Open in March and finished T6. Two months later, he rose for a solo second at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. And don't forget that he’s playing on the status yielded by winning twice on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023. As one of the most accurate from tee to green, he’ll need the putter to cooperate, so that’s the leap of faith you’re taking.

Top 5

S.H. Kim (+3300) … ‘Twas a pity that I lifted Matti Schmid into the Outright slot of last week’s Sleepers because he closed hard with a 62 for a solo fifth. The previous time it happened was with – you guessed it – Kim. It was for THE CJ UP Byron Nelson and he finished T4. His odds to win this week (+20000) are double what they were at TPC Craig Ranch, but the reasoning is similar for TPC Summerlin and the measurements are even better. Currently T14 on the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting and fourth in converting greens hit into par breakers. The bloated areas of this week’s targets enhance his ability to score, something he’s already proven on the course. In his debut, which coincided with the new surfaces in 2022, he finished T4.

Top 10

J.J. Spaun (+350) … Oftentimes, I’ve advised to reserve a return to competition for observation only. That was the Black Desert Championship for him. He had withdrawn after one round of the Sanderson Farms Championship the previous week for an undisclosed reason. It ended a sparkling run of seven straight paydays, three of which going for a top 10. And that was after opening the season without a top 25 among only five cuts made in 15 starts. With a T25 at Black Desert in the books, it’s time to get back on the bandwagon. It’s worth adding that throughout his roller-coaster ride, he’s been one of the most accurate on approach on the PGA TOUR. It’s the putter that finally started obeying orders.

Top 20

K.H. Lee (+400) … Isn’t it satisfying when you’ve found your guy after extended scrolling or swiping? I was just about to stop and return to the top until he slipped into view. The 33-year-old from South Korea loves himself some TPC Summerlin, and that’s a strong angle for a veteran of 176 PGA TOUR starts, especially when you consider his affinity for success on familiar tracks, as he has won consecutive editions of THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch. It’s one of only three tracks on which he’s recorded multiple top-15 finishes. TPC Twin Cities, host of the 3M Open, is one, while TPC Summerlin is the other. Since 2021, he’s 3-for-3 with a T14, a T37, a T7 and a scoring average of 67.33.

Top 40

Lanto Griffin (+165) … There’s almost too much to like not to demand multiplying your units for this finish. He has three top 20s at TPC Summerlin, including in each of his last two appearances (2021, 2023). He’s cashed in his last five starts upon arrival, the first two of which for a top 40. That run punctuates 14-of-18 paydays this season, consistency itself made possible by ranking fifth on the PGA TOUR in greens in regulation. And to prove that he’s feelin’ it, he medaled at Monday’s open qualifier with a bogey-free, 9-under 62 at Spanish Trail Country Club.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

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