Bolton: Apply desert clues from Black Desert as keys for TPC Summerlin

The numbers are in, and they are eye-popping.

On average, the field at the Black Desert Championship split a whopping 11.77 (of 14) fairways and hit 13.67 greens in regulation per round. So, what you saw in the setup was realized in the data. Those outrageous clips were made possible by expansive landing areas off tees and large targets on approach. With lava everywhere else, it was an extreme kind of golf, and it was fabulous.

Of course, the ball still has to drop into holes to post scores, and that’s where the advance narrative fulfilled expectations – that we love ball-strikers on unfamiliar greens.

There’s an inverse relationship between total greens hit and putts per GIR, and that played out last week in Utah. Among 35 courses lasered in 2024, Black Desert Resort ranks fourth-hardest in conversion percentage from 4-8 feet (64.79), fifth-hardest inside 10 feet (86.48) and hardest from 10-15 feet (25.54).

You could make a case that Black Desert serves as a proper primer for TPC Summerlin, host of this week’s Shriners Children’s Open. Both are desert tracks, and TPC Summerlin also is welcoming to drivers and irons. The difference – and it’s a big one – is that TPC Summerlin sits on the opposite end of the spectrum of course experience.

TPC Summerlin has been the site for the tournament for over 30 years. Sure, much work has been done to retain its worthiness and consistency – the latest of which were new fairways and greens ahead of the 2022 edition – but guys have put in their dues with the speed and undulations, which is why this week’s champion will reflect the classic combination of hitting greens and sinking putts.

The same data that exposed the lack of knowledge on the greens at Black Desert reflects how experience matters at TPC Summerlin.

In the 2023 edition of the Shriners Children’s Open, the field averaged a similar 13.37 greens in regulation per round, but clips in the ranges on the greens were significantly better. Of 41 courses measured during the 2022-23 season and from 4-8 feet, TPC Summerlin ranked 31st at 71.43 percent. Inside 10 feet, where the overall curve is flatter, it was 10th but at 87.33 percent. And from 10-15 feet, it checked in 30th at 31.76 percent.

And never forget that all experience is invaluable, including failures to cash. Don’t let the absence of course success deter you from a tasty bet on any board. It’s the kind of leverage that you want in a shootout.

Weather

Unlike last week, we need to take another peek at the forecast for Las Vegas. Yes, it’s an abnormal thing to consider but here we are.

The wind is going to blow, but it might not be felt in earnest until Thursday’s afternoon wave gets going. Therefore, avoid that entire set of 66 golfers in the first-round leader market because there hasn’t been a setup and timing like this in memory. Stronger and sustained breezes will headline the entirety of the second round, so the early-late draw will benefit. If you’re in a "one and done," this difference is enough to avoid the late-early no matter what.

Things calm into Saturday, enough so for a handful of guys to validate "Moving Day." Sunday will yield the lowest scoring average of any round, so live bettors should be more keen than usual on favorites further down the leaderboard at the conclusion of the third round.

Power Rankings wild card

Ryan Fox (+275 = Top 20) … Given his global body of work, it feels like a disappointment that the Kiwi hasn’t worked his way into more of my previous material during his first season with PGA TOUR membership, but it’s not like it’s been a disaster. He’s 104th in the FedExCup, and he’s registered three top 10s among six top 20s worldwide, the most recent of which was a T11 at the Sanderson Farms Championship, and he made the cut in all four majors. He’s checked the predictable boxes of hanging with the longer hitters off the tee and showcasing the putter as a primary weapon. The angle in his debut at TPC Summerlin is that the larger greens favor his relative weakness on approach so he’s putting more often. And if you’re cynical about first-timers, fellow international Tom Kim was a debutant when he prevailed in 2022.

Other notables

Patrick Fishburn (+250 = Top 20) … Keeping this really simple. Every rookie takes a few punches, and he’s absorbed his fair share, but his run of extended brilliance is too great a sample size to discard as a quirk. As an ambassador for Black Desert Resort, his experience last week also was unique, so it’s entirely explainable that he missed the cut even though he was one of the very few with prior course knowledge. It was a big week personally, and he hasn’t gone through that sort of thing at this level before. He’ll be better as a result the next time. Back on the road in Las Vegas, he can deploy the kind of undistracted firepower that’s fueled four top 10s and another four top 20s in the last six months.

Jhonattan Vegas (+200 = Top 20) … I defaulted into this analysis expecting to emerge touting a top 10, but that’s an aggressive send. The recent winner of the 3M Open arrives having cashed in eight straight starts, but his second-best finish is but a T20 at the John Deere Classic three weeks prior to his victory. He’s second on the PGA TOUR in both greens hit and par-5 scoring, but he hasn’t seen TPC Summerlin in five years, either, so this is a fair compromise of an endorsement. I’m

Ryan Moore (+200 = Top 40) … Connections to Vegas – Las, that is, not Jhonny – are sprinkled across my other preview material, but there’s so much of it to consider this week that I’d be remiss to overlook the UNLV product who prevailed here in 2012. Objectively, he’s struggled for most of 2024 but he’s hung up a top-40 finish at TPC Summerlin in four of the last five editions, and his scoring average in his last eight rounds here is 67.375. Last year’s T13 ended a stretch of five starts during which he cashed only once for a T45. This year he arrives once again with one payday in his last five starts – a T45. Still one of the most efficient from tee to green despite the lull in the long term.

Tap-ins

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• PARLAY: Cam Davis, Adam Hadwin and J.T. Poston (+170 = All to Make the Cut)
• Chesson Hadley (+140 = Top 40)
• Luke List (+175 = Top 40)
• Taylor Pendrith (+225 = Top Canadian)
• Andrew Putnam (+220 = Top 20)
• David Skinns (+165 = Top 40)
• Jhonattan Vegas (+150 = Top South American)
• Tom Whitney (+240 = Top 40)

Returning to competition

Ryan McCormick … He called it quits during his second round last week after flaring his tee ball right of the fairway on the par-4 12th hole at Black Desert Resort. He cited an injured wrist. He had just penciled in a snowman at the par-4 11th, where he found water with his third and eventually three-putted from inside 9 feet. It’s been that kind of season for the rookie who’s now 176th in the FedExCup.

Notable withdrawals

Max Greyserman … It would’ve marked the rookie’s first start of the FedExCup Fall. At 53rd in the Official World Golf Ranking, no doubt he’s crunching numbers with his value, as his consecutive runner-up finishes over the summer continue to contribute 100 percent to it. With the end-of-year ranking sending the top 50 into the Masters, he’d be adding that start to his full slate of Signature Events.

Michael Thorbjornsen … Also walked off Black Desert during his second round. His withdrawal was due to a knee injury. He had reached 5-under through 24 holes before going double bogey-bogey ahead of an errant tee ball at the par-5 18th, after which he shut it down. It was a discouraging conclusion to his 10th start as a PGA TOUR member, which now makes him officially part of the 2024 rookie class. Currently 130th in the FedExCup but fully exempt for 2025 via PGA TOUR University. Still, finishing inside the top 125 would yield a massive improvement in the pecking order, and he’d be exempt from reorders.

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