Sleeper Picks: Wells Fargo Championship

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

OUTRIGHT

Harris English (+5000) … He hasn’t captured victory since emerging as the survivor of an eight-hole playoff at the 2021 Travelers Championship, but the 34-year-old has been flashing vintage form for a good year now, itself about a year on from surgery for a torn labrum in his right hip. He’s well above average across the board and Quail Hollow is the site of his most recent podium finish. No one was catching Wyndham Clark for the win at last year’s Wells Fargo Championship, but English shared third in the full field (seven strokes back).

TOP 5

Sahith Theegala (+450) … Learning from last week’s lesson when S.H. Kim “should” have been the fourth Sleeper among the Top 5s to pay it off this year. (He finished T4 at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson.) Instead, he was slotted as the outright in this space (although there was a nod to swap him with Thomas Detry, the listed Top 5). To wit, Theegala was the original front-runner for this week’s outright, but he sets up better for the next-best reward. Any course history, good or otherwise, can be chalked up as invaluable experience because of his quick-study profile as a feel player. Of course, it’s a results-based business, but he has a stack of receipts if you need those, too. Two runner-up finishes, a solo fifth and another pair of top 10s already this season.

TOP 10

Brendon Todd (+600) … When a guy who never will win a long-drive contest answers the bell on a course like Quail Hollow that most definitely rewards distance off the tee, respect is even greater. Yet, he’s in the longer half of odds in the field for this finish. Ignore the slight because that’s very good for us. He placed T8 here last year but he also finished T18 in 2019, arguably the more impressive outcome given the fact that he had arrived that week at 1,560th in the Official World Golf Ranking due to an extended skid with the driver yips. No such worries nowadays. He’s 20th on the PGA TOUR in fairways hit and a classically strong 18th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

TOP 20

Kevin Tway (+500) … A T11 with Kelly Kraft at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans was a bonus, but it’s now sandwiched in between a solo third at Corales and a T9 at TPC Craig Ranch. He arrives for his fourth start at Quail Hollow (via the Aon Swing 5) with eight consecutive sub-70s in individual competition, so investing in a Top 20 in a field of 69, regardless of its depth and breadth, is meaty. The gamechanger of late has been his putting, and it hasn’t made a difference that he’s rolled it on paspalum, Bermuda and bentgrass the last three weeks, respectively. Pure and simple, he’s feelin’ it.

TOP 30

Emiliano Grillo (+210) … It’s a beautiful thing that BetMGM opened this market for the Signature Event. It’s even better than the Argentine is worth more than twice the kickback in it. Awful closing rounds in his last two paydays shoved him well away from the spotlight. He also never locked in at the Masters, but negative results on the biggest stages are forgiven. He’s still putting exceptionally well across full tournaments, so it pays to dive into that detail. Oh, and he’s gone T9-T14-T23 at Quail Hollow since 2018.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

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