Bolton: Navigating uncertainties ahead of dual event week in Carolinas

One of my earliest lessons as an analyst and a resource is that most answers to questions begin with, “It depends.”

We’d all love to navigate the uncertainties with absolutes, but that’s a fool’s quest. The same golfer can present favorably in one pursuit and as a liability in another … in the same tournament. This is the reality across the wide array of fantasy formats for which I’d often counter with my own questions about rosters, opponents and league position, but it’s also relevant in betting with how odds determine impact.

Striding beside that premise is the mix of basic variables like recent form and course history. Neither trumps the other in a vacuum, and all analysis is golfer-centric, but when it concerns the Wells Fargo Championship, Quail Hollow Club tilts more toward the predictability of Augusta National for the Masters than TPC Sawgrass for THE PLAYERS Championship.

Quail Hollow is a stern test that rewards with a swell of success over time versus a crapshoot on the other axis. Thus, the bull’s-eye consists of a combination of guys who are playing well upon arrival and have enough success on the course to scare oddsmakers. That’s not rocket science, but the ring just outside that covers more of the latter than the former.

Golfers who have played well at Quail Hollow in the past are more likely to extinguish scuffling form upon arrival (e.g., Rickie Fowler) than currently hot hands tackling the course for the first time (e.g., Jake Knapp). There still are exceptions defined by cachet, like Collin Morikawa, who is 0-for-1, so reject urges to paint broad strokes.

Quail Hollow is penal, but it pays off the debt of education. When choosing between golfers in the same vicinity on the board, consider that as the tiebreaker to answer the question.

WEATHER – Wells Fargo Championship

While Thursday’s forecast for wind and inclement weather has increased since the first peek at the conditions in Monday’s Power Rankings, the most important component of our analysis was released on Tuesday.

When tee times were posted, golfers were segregated into threesomes off split tees beginning at 11:00 a.m. ET. So, all will be on the course in just two hours and one minute thereafter. The potential problem with that, however, is that storms are forecast to encroach right around the same time they are.

The good news is that it’s a small field and there’s plenty of daylight to get back on track if the first round bleeds into Friday. If there, indeed, is a delay, the latest starters might be playing the most holes in the first two rounds in the easiest of the winds.

Just a reminder that there’s no cut at Quail Hollow, so don’t be bashful about live-betting early starters who stumble out of the gate perhaps due to the weather.

WEATHER – Myrtle Beach Classic

The Power Rankings for this Additional Event were published on Tuesday afternoon, so there’s nothing significantly different since. The only relevant note to add is that Dunes Club drains wonderfully, and with little preventing winds from crossing over the property along the Atlantic Ocean, the greens figure to dry quickly by the weekend.

In terms of a draw for the field of 132, it should be balanced with the morning waves receiving the more scorable hours. Of course, a delay would grab that projection and toss it into the bucket of luck.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Viktor Hovland (+110 = Top 20) … Who else could it be? Last time he played, he paid off my recommendation to invest in him missing the cut at the Masters, and he did. Of course, that market is not in play this week, but the 2023 FedExCup champion has been off, as in not right. He’s detailed how he’s making adjustments and his frustration is evident. Clearing the mechanism can help, so that he’s played infrequently is a veteran move. This arguably is the first slump of his career, so there’s merit to going hard into a Top 10 at +275, but you’re still getting plus value for this.

OTHER NOTABLES

Adam Scott (+138 = Top Australian) … Considered him for a Top 20 at +125 but he doesn’t need that to pay this off. Even better, he needs to beat just two others to deliver – Jason Day (+138) and Cam Davis (+333). Scott finished T5 here last year and he’s turned in nine top 25s in his last 12 starts worldwide covering the last six months. And while getting lost in the weeds isn’t healthy for anyone, it’s remarkable that the difference he’s saving from tee to green versus with the putter is just one-thousandth of a stroke, and both measure just north of 0.400.

Matthieu Pavon (+120 = Top 30) … He’s a first-timer at Quail Hollow but this still feels like a promotional play. My current clubhouse leader for Rookie of the Year studied abroad, so the label of rookie is by definition only on the PGA TOUR. He’s already tamed Torrey Pines for a victory earlier this year and he finished T12 in his debut at the Masters, so the stages haven’t been too big, either. It’s also absurd how consistently strong he’s been throughout his bag despite unfamiliarity on most tracks.

Chris Kirk (+160 = Top 20) … Centered among the converging trends of form and fit, while course history loses this game of musical chairs. He’s rested since going T16-T10 in the fortnight that covered the Masters and the RBC Heritage. That ended his drought without a top 20 at six consecutive starts, but he’s motored forward with the kind of tee-go-green proficiency that got him to this level in the first place. Added bonuses of ranking third on TOUR in par breakers and second in par-4 scoring.

TAP-INS

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• Corey Conners (+250 = Top Canadian)
• Tony Finau (+275 = Top 10)
• Rickie Fowler (+175 = Top 20)
• Stephan Jaeger (+400 = Top Continental European)
• Rory McIlroy (+200 = Top European)
• Andrew Putnam (+120 = Top 30)

RETURNING TO COMPETITION – Wells Fargo Championship

Will Zalatoris (+125 = Top 20) … Sat out THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson as a precaution for ongoing management of his back. He had competed in each of the previous three weeks, so it slotted as the most logical break ahead of consecutive starts in a Signature Event and a major. So much for BetMGM tossing us a bone, though. This isn’t as much of an endorsement as it is a timesaver for you to wonder where he landed. His odds for a Top 30 are merely (-150). Lean harder into sharper angles.

Sungjae Im (+400 = Top Asian) … Late scratch from THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson due to illness. He had just traveled from defending his title at the Woori Financial Group Championship at home in South Korea, so it’s fair that he put his body through uncommon rigors, especially since he had finished T12 at the RBC Heritage immediately before the transpacific travel. Now that he’s rested and presumably recovered, he’s the target among five in this market even though he’s second-longest.

RETURNING TO COMPETITION – Myrtle Beach Classic

C.T. Pan … A sore lower back knocked him out of THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson during his second round. When all of the dust settled on that leaderboard and after the PGA of America announced its field for the PGA Championship, he landed as fourth alternate for the major. Dunes Club is a good fit but only if BetMGM opens a market for a Top 40. Otherwise, leave him alone to test his fitness.

Anders Albertson and Philip Knowles … Both PGA TOUR members are making their season debuts this week and with status via a medical extension in the graduate reshuffle category. Knowles projects to provide more punch but both can be relatively attractive in long-term fantasy formats that allow midseason pickups.

NOTABLE WDs – Wells Fargo Championship

Scottie Scheffler … Technically, this is a DNP. He’s the only automatic qualifier who wasn’t committed when Friday’s deadline fell. No worries about that, but the birth of his first child still looms.

Ludvig Åberg … Announced on Monday afternoon that he’s opted to rest a sore left knee in advance of his debut at the PGA Championship. What’s important to add is that this isn’t new news. As relayed in this space for the Masters, the Swede already had been vocal about the issue. Of course, all he did then was finish second in his debut at Augusta National, which is the opposite of flat terrain. The following week, he turned in a T10 at the RBC Heritage. So, retain elevated expectations at Valhalla.

NOTABLE WDs – Myrtle Beach Classic

K.H. Lee and Maverick McNealy … Both were among the 30 special invitations into the PGA Championship on Tuesday. Lee is 95th in the Official World Golf Ranking; McNealy is 102nd.

Doug Ghim … He’s first alternate for the PGA Championship, so if either of this week’s winners already are exempt, he’ll climb into the field at Valhalla.

Tyler Duncan … Second early withdrawal in a little over a month. The first at the Texas Children’s Houston Open was due to a back that wasn’t ready to go. At 171st in the FedExCup, he remains valuable only in the deepest of fantasy formats in which owners can feel the impact of total starts.

Nick Hardy … This guarantees at least two weeks off because he’s not exempt into the PGA Championship. He and Davis Riley settled for a T28 in their title defense at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans two weeks ago, but it’s still Hardy’s second-best result of 14 starts in 2024.

Norman Xiong … Walked off TPC Craig Ranch during his second round of THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, citing an injured back. In his membership debut this season, a solo ninth at the Puerto Rico Open is his only top 50 in 11 starts.

Vince Whaley … This is his second early withdrawal of the season (Cognizant Classic). With six starts to find 81.416 FedExCup points and retain status via a Major Medical Extension, it makes sense to sit out a stop with a fraction of the usual points distributed. Because it’s an Additional Event, the winner of the Myrtle Beach Classic receives 300 instead of the usual 500.

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