Sleeper Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Luke List (+10000) … To identify legitimate Sleepers in a Signature Event can present as a silly exercise, but there still is quite a bit of value available. Take for instance the 39-year-old with odds in the same ballpark as many of the winners thus far in 2024. He captured his second PGA TOUR title five months ago at the Sanderson Farms Championship and he recently shared runner-up honors at The Genesis Invitational where he led the field in Strokes Gained: Putting. His turnaround on the greens began last summer and he’s sustained inspiring form since. Among the brawniest and precise from tee to green, he’s also a veteran of 20 competitive rounds at Bay Hill where he opened his career with a pair of top 10s and another top 20 in his first three trips.

Top 5

Sahith Theegala (+700) … This is really tasty for the quick study. In his second appearance last year, he finished T14 as one of only six golfers with all four scores of par or better. He also showcased the strength of his skill set in ranking T8 in greens hit and sixth in SG: Putting. But it’s the combination of his approach in allowing tests to come to him while relying on his ability to stay aggressive that’s most attractive. He’s already hung up two top-fives this season, too.

Top 10

Keegan Bradley (+350) … You’re not going to find another prop with this kickback that makes as much sense. He’s the archetype of the talent expected to perform exceptionally well at Bay Hill Club & Lodge. And he has. Since 2013, he’s 11-for-11 cuts made with a pair of podiums opening the stretch and a T10-T11-T10 burst since 2021. His ball-striking alone should position him favorably entering the weekend (again) when his competitive fire can pay it off. He was a co-runner-up at the Sony Open in Hawaii in January and finished T11 at the weather-shortened AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, so he’s been able to retain tiptop form thanks primarily to consistently stronger putting.

Top 20

Taylor Moore (+250) … Admittedly torn in this vicinity of the board, I decided on the 30-year-old based on a variable in the macro – his ceiling. There are cornerstones for success everywhere you look for the Texan in just his third season. His title defense at the Valspar Championship is in two weeks, so he’s already a winner on the PGA TOUR as you’re aware, but it’s that he hasn’t relented since the breakthrough. He’s gone on to record three top fives among seven top 25s in the interim, he’s cashed in 10 straight starts upon arrival, he has the athleticism to hang with anyone off the tee and he’s one of the best on TOUR on approach in 2024. He’s also 2-for-2 at Bay Hill.

Top Rest of the World

Corey Conners (+1200) … BetMGM has a top-30 market but let’s have fun differently in this limited field. In the grouping of 69 at Bay Hill, 18 can be found in this market. Of them, none are inside the top 15 in the outright market. Jason Day tops both at +3300 among the outrights and +650 for this prop. So, in the absence of a prohibitive favorite, there’s a justifiable reason to have confidence in your horse. The only problem is that we need Corey Conners to play like Corey Conners again. He hasn’t connected for a top-20 in over six months, and that’s alarming because he was a top-20 machine last season. He’s seventh-shortest in this grouping, he’s gone 3rd-T11-T21 in this tournament since 2021 and his tee-to-green game remains as sharp as ever. Giddy up!

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

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