Golfbet Insider: Building bold plays for Arnold Palmer Invitational

Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge has never hosted a major by definition. However, it often has attracted fields that resemble the kind that assemble on the center stages of the sport.

With only 69 golfers in play at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, finding hidden gems down boards is trickier pre-tournament than usual.

If you filled tickets for The Sentry and/or The Genesis Invitational that hosted a respective 59 and 70 golfers earlier this year, then your sense of value was rocked. Just about everybody is shorter than how you feel they should be no matter the bet.

It’s necessary due to the mechanics, so consider a simple tactic to win the week: Accept it. Rather than reach for the edges for the sexy and speculative, build a portfolio of conservative investments that increases your likelihood for a higher hit ratio.

Palmer was famous for saying, “You must play boldly to win.” Boldly. Not fearlessly or recklessly. Take what the boards give and apply your sincere confidence, but remain within your comfort zone.

Pull Quote

Kurt Kitayama (+160 = Top 20 via BetMGM Sportsbook) … The 31-year-old is a first-time defending champion on the PGA TOUR. He prevailed by one stroke at 9-under 279 despite even-par 72s in the third and final rounds. All of the other 19 inside the top 20 on the final leaderboard had at least one red number in either round after the cut. Seven beat par in both.

Kitayama’s experience is a perfect example of where he’s improved, which explains why he’s rapidly evolved into a consistent talent with 10 consecutive cuts made upon arrival.

In the first and second rounds in 24 stroke-play starts in 2022-23, he ranked a respective 175th and 130th on the PGA TOUR. In five starts in 2024, he’s T87 and T5 in the same rounds. He credited a recent transition to swing coach Chris Como for the turnaround.

“That was the biggest goal – changing coaches was to not have such an up-and-down year,” Kitayama said to the media on Tuesday. “That's why, even though those finishes [during which] I made the cut haven't been great, at least making the cut and having some good … first couple rounds has been a really big positive.

My take: Not long ago, the advice I extended at the top would’ve included the implication to avoid Kitayama in a week like this. He hasn’t been for the faint of heart. There’s no middle ground.

Today, even though only two of his paydays during this unprecedented stretch of form have been top-20s, he presents strongly for it in a field of 69, so that kind of plus value is a sweet bonus.

If you’re still skittish, he added some detail to calm our nerves.

“I think when my swing got off I wasn't really sure what I was doing, what I could do to get it back into form,” he said, also referencing his new relationship with Como. “When it was on, it was on, and I didn't have to really think about it. So, now it seems like when it gets off, it's not as far off, and I'm starting to understand my swing a little more, a little better, to get it back to more playability. Eliminate the big misses.”

And convert for the big stakes.

Power Rankings Wild Card

Justin Thomas (+220 = Top 10) … The Riviera Country Club got the best of him in his last start – he missed the cut – but it’s in the minority of recent courses that have knocked him around. In fact, it is the minority. In his prior six official tournaments, he recorded four top-six finishes and a pair of T12s. Throw in a solo third at the Hero World Challenge for good measure if you want. Regardless, he’s been fantastic.

It’s that form that supports the confidence for this prop at Bay Hill where he’s 2-for-2 without a top 20. Granted, after debuting in 2015, he didn’t return until last year, so his learning curve is longer than many others, but it’s a course that will reward the firepower he possesses with his long irons more than most.

Tap-Ins

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• Byeong Hun An (+125 = Top 20)
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+220 = Top 20)
• Si Woo Kim (+160 = Top 20)
• Adam Svensson (+105 = Top 30)
• Nick Taylor (-105 = Top 30)
• Erik van Rooyen (+170 = Top 20)

Returning To Competition – Puerto Rico Open

Aaron Wise … First action since the U.S. Open last summer. It was the fourth start he made after taking a month-and-a-half off to focus on his mental health. He passed on an exemption into the Masters as a byproduct of the mini-sabbatical. Fully exempt through 2024 for reaching the TOUR Championship in 2022, he’s making his debut at Grand Reserve Golf Club.

Notable WDs – Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard

Tony Finau … He’s the only qualifier at Bay Hill who opted out. It’s sensible timing given that he failed to finish inside the top 20 in all five prior tries, and it grants two straight weeks to prep for THE PLAYERS Championship.

Notable WDs – Puerto Rico Open

K.H. Lee … A T4 at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches generated a rise of 42 spots to a more comfortable 70th in the FedExCup. It also gave him the opportunity to rest and recharge for THE PLAYERS.

David Lipsky … Finally ended his 0-for-5 season-opening skid with a T41 at PGA National last week. Poised for his second consecutive appearance at TPC Sawgrass.

Callum Tarren … The 33-year-old Brit has missed eight consecutive cuts going back to November, so he’s scrambling for some magic in advance of his second straight start at THE PLAYERS.

Zach Johnson … Since his rookie year of 2004, he had appeared in all 20 editions of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but he didn’t qualify this year. The 48-year-old is off to a decent start in 2024 with a pair of top 25s to sit 106th in the FedExCup. It’s the kind of move off the blocks that’s preferable but especially while burning a career earnings exemption.

Kramer Hickok … This would have been his 2024 debut. He has conditional status, so he’s eligible for the FedExCup, but he hasn’t appeared on the Korn Ferry Tour, either.

Jimmy Walker … It would have been his first appearance on the island since 2010, but like Hickok, the 45-year-old, six-time PGA TOUR winner also has conditional status and hasn’t played this year.

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