Horses for Courses: Jason Day leads way in taming difficult Torrey Pines

San Diego and Torrey Pines Golf Course welcome the PGA TOUR for the second week of the West Coast swing.

The Farmers Insurance Open features a full field of 156 players. A host since 1968, the familiar two-course layout will determine the champion. Players will tee it up at the North Course, the easiest of the two daily fee tracks, once in the first two rounds. They will play the other three rounds on the South Course, home of two U.S. Opens this century.

Horses for Courses

Only two players have won more events and money than Jason Day (+2800). The winner in 2015 and 2018 (both in playoffs) will look to add to his recent hot streak. The longest track on TOUR (7,765 yards, par 72) and the most difficult non-major challenge has fit the eye of the Australian. Racking up seven top-10 paydays from 10 weekend appearances, he has enough power off the tee plus precision on and around the greens to contend annually. The 2014 runner-up hit the podium again in 2022, falling one shot short of a playoff. Last year, he posted T7, his fifth T16 or better in his last six visits.

Strokes Gained: Total

Players listed are in the field this week; 2023 season stats.

While not a major championship in name, the South Course provides a major examination. The scoring average has ranked the Farmers as the hardest non-major event in two of the last three seasons. All 14 clubs will be in play this week. It's probably not a coincidence that the top players in this category are also at the top of the BetMGM Sportsbook board this week. There’s length, rough and difficult green complexes, making par a solid score this week.

Scrambling

The South Course has ranked in the top five in this category in three of the last four years. Tight driving conditions, coastal breezes and 4 inches of overseeded rough are the challenges presented off the tee. Less than 55 percent of fairways are found each year. The proximity numbers from the tall grass are frightening. Approaching small greens, only 5,000 square feet on average, not even 66 percent find the putting surfaces from the short grass. Navigating closely mown areas and bushy rough around the green will require creativity and nerves.

While other players entered this week might have accumulated more top finishes, defending champion Max Homa (+1100) thrives at Torrey Pines and in California. Producing six career wins on TOUR, the Californian has claimed four of them in the Golden State. His other two victories, both at the Quail Hollow Club in North Carolina, were on another meaty, tee-to-green grinder. After missing the cut in his first three tries, he has bounced back with Win-MC-T18-T9 in his last four starts. His keys to victory last season included residing in the top 14 of Fairways, GIR, Scrambling and SG: Putting.

In 2022, Luke List (+6600) defeated Will Zalatoris (+5000) in a playoff for his first TOUR victory. The big hitter cashed in his previous four visits, including T10 in the 2021 edition and T12 in 2018. After cashing T25 in defense last year, his streak of making the weekend is now six and counting. The streak of champions to rank in the top 10 of SG: Putting has now reached four consecutive seasons.

Strokes Gained: Putting

From the list above, Homa (win), Bradley (second), Theegala (T4), Ryder (T4), Schauffele (T13) and Suh (T20) all factored last year. I’ll point out that Montgomery was T11 in 2022 and English ran third here at the U.S. Open in 2021.

Getting it close from the rough on approach or around the green doesn’t happen frequently. Also, over the last four years, Approach Putting on the South Course is annually in the top five most difficult. The ability to grind and make putts outside the circle of friendship will go a long way this week. Extra credit for guys who grew up on this style of greens.

Making his 13th appearance, KeeganBradley (+3000) has never missed a start and has found the weekend 10 times. Playing the South Course on the weekend in his last six visits, he’s cashed three times in the top five, stacking runner-up dollars last year, the best of the bunch.

Tony Finau (+2800) might be the safest player on the board this week. The big hitter has cashed every year but 2022 from nine visits and has finished T24 or better in ALL of them. His five top-10 paydays have come in the last seven years, including three of the last four.

With top-10 results in four of his last six appearances, 2019 winner Justin Rose (+4500) should draw eyeballs. Posting 21-under in perfect scoring conditions, the Englishman converted his third consecutive top-10 into victory. After missing the cut in defense, he posted T6 in 2022 and T18 last year.

Oddsmaker’s Extras

• Collin Morikawa (+1000): T4 here in the 2021 U.S. Open, solo third last year.
• Sungjae Im (+2000): Perfect from five tries including T4-T6 in the last two editions.
• Will Zalatoris (+5000): Cashed P2 and T7 in two of three visits as a professional. Missed the cut last year as his back issues were developing.
• Hideki Matsuyama (+5000): Making the cut in 2024 would run his streak to eight straight. Signing for T9 in 2023 and T3 in 2019 are the highlights from 10 visits.
• Sam Ryder (+10000): The 2023 co-leader after 18, the solo leader after 36 and 54 holes, faded to T4 on Sunday. Cashing T10 in 2021, he’s hit the top 10 twice in three years.

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