Odds Outlook: California connection favored at Torrey Pines

Trading the desert of La Quinta for the coastal bluffs of San Diego, the PGA TOUR and the West Coast Swing continues in California at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines Golf Club.

Perched above the Pacific Ocean, Torrey Pines has hosted the PGA TOUR since 1968. The South Course, home of the 2008 and 2021 U.S. Open, will host three of the four rounds, including the final two. The field of 156 players will have a loop on the North Course before the 36-hole cut.

For the third consecutive season, the Farmers Insurance Open will start on Wednesday and conclude on Saturday.

Xander Schauffele (+900 at BetMGM Sportsbook) is already qualified for all the Signature Events and major championships in 2024. Finishing second at the TOUR Championship, his only focus moving forward is returning to the winner’s circle. The summer of 2022 produced his last victory, and the native of San Diego and San Diego State alum will look to break the slide where he grew up. One of the best putters on TOUR, he will look to add his name to the collection of short game wizards who have won this event recently and over the year. Making his ninth start, his best payday was T2, five shots off the winner in 2021.

The California connection at the top of the board is strong this week. Collin Morikawa (+1000), who grew up in the Los Angeles suburb of La Cañada, has been red-hot since returning from the Ryder Cup in Rome. Winning the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP in October, the California Golden Bear opened the new season with a T5 in Maui, Hawaii, at The Sentry. Playing 7,765 yards (par-72), the South Course provides some of the toughest fairways and greens to hit on TOUR. Finishing third last year after a T21 on debut in 2020, not many others hit more fairways and greens. Annually one of the toughest events on the schedule, the two-time major winner produced a T4 when it was set up as a major championship in 2021.

Reigning champion Max Homa (+1100) led the field in SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green last season in his two-shot win. Picking up the victory in his seventh start at the South Course, the Burbank, California, native continued the trend of seasoned winners. The last six victors have all needed six or more attempts to raise the trophy. The winner at the Nedbank Golf Challenge in South Africa in November, Homa has not finished worse than T21 since missing the cut at the Travelers Championship last June.

Making his first appearance here since 2019, Long Beach, California, native Patrick Cantlay (+1100) will look to bounce back from a disappointing final round last weekend. Sitting T10 after three rounds at The American Express, the man with the track record (61) at the Stadium Course played his final 22 holes in 5-over and faded to T52. Returning to an event where he’s missed the cut in two of three appearances, the UCLA product has collected one paycheck from his three visits (T51 in 2018), but did place T15 at the 2021 U.S. Open in his last appearance at Torrey Pines.

After navigating the mountain of Kapalua and the coastal links of Waialae, Ludvig Åberg (+2000) will take his first shot at Torrey Pines. Since 1990, only two players have won here on debut. The Swedish star will look to join that exclusive club with his power and precision off the tee on the longest course used on TOUR last season. The greens on the South Course, covered in Poa annua, and at just 5,000 square feet on average, will require his iron game to be on point if he is going to contend.

Sungjae Im (+2000) opened the season by setting a PGA TOUR record with 34 birdies at Kapalua (T5). Adding 22 more in the desert last week (T25), the Korean is dialed in over his first two events. Returning to San Diego for the sixth consecutive season, he will look to continue his trend of annual improvement. After not cracking the top 30 in his first three starts, he’s 22-under in his last two combined for T6 in 2022 and T4 last year. Fits the experience mold with the last six winners needing at least six starts before winning. Trending and trending.

A winner in 2015 and 2018, Jason Day (+2500) will look to join a club of just two others who have won this event more than twice. Day won both titles in playoffs and has cashed T3 and T7 on his last two visits. The Australian short game wizard thrives around and on the tiny greens on the California coast, both at Torrey Pines and next week at Pebble Beach.

Min Woo Lee (+2800) will look to break the streak of three winners wearing stars and stripes. The Australian phenom, only 25, closed 2023 by winning twice in his last five events worldwide, including victories in Macau and Australia. The streak also included a solo third and T6, and his only wayward payday was at the DP World Tour Championship (T15). Making his first appearance at Torrey Pines, he shook off any holiday rust with T21 at The American Express, racking up 25 birdies against three bogeys and a double.

Tony Finau (+2800) has made the Farmers Insurance Open a personal ATM. The big check has eluded the native of Utah, but his eight weekends from nine starts have produced nothing worse than T24 and include top-10 paydays, including T2 in 2021, in three of the last four. After visits to Maui (T37) and the Coachella Valley last week (T25) might not look appealing, but he posted all eight rounds in the 60s for a 36-under aggregate.

Here's a look at other notable odds in the field, with players gearing up for the Wednesday start at a venue set to receive significant rain on Monday:

• +3000: Keegan Bradley
• +3300: Sahith Theegala
• +3500: Eric Cole
• +4000: Harris English, Sepp Straka
• +4500: Hideki Matsuyama, Nicolai Hojgaard, Justin Rose (2019 winner)
• +5000: Will Zalatoris
• +6000: Adrian Meronk
• +6600: Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Daniel Berger, Keith Mitchell, Shane Lowry, Stephan Jaeger, Luke List (2022 winner)
• +8000: Adam Svensson, Akshay Bhatia, Beau Hossler, Billy Horschel, Nick Dunlap (a), Ryo Hisatsune, Taylor Montgomery
• +9000: Alex Smalley, Mackenzie Hughes, Michael Kim, Taylor Moore, Tom Hoge
• +10000: Aaron Rai, Adam Schenk, Austin Eckroat, Davis Thompson, J.J. Spaun, Sam Ryder, Taylor Pendrith, Thomas Detry

How it works:

• A field of 156 players will play 18 holes on the South and the North.
• Top 65 and ties after 36 holes will return to the South Course for the final two rounds.
• Purse of $9 million, with the winner taking home $1.62 million, plus 500 FedExCup points, an invitation to the Masters, THE PLAYERS and the 2025 Sentry.
• The Farmers is the last chance to join the Aon Swing 5 and earn entrance into next week’s Signature Event at Pebble Beach. The top five players (based on FedExCup points since the Sony Open) who are not previously eligible will be added to the field next week.
• The streak of triple-digit winners extended to three events last week after amateur Nick Dunlap (+40000) won The American Express. Runner-up Christiaan Bezuidenhout was also at triple digits pre-tournament, listed at +10000.

Circle back tomorrow as I post more details in Horses for Courses.

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